Where will the Panthers pick in the 2021 NFL draft? Tracking the path to the top 5
For the second time in the Carolina Panthers history, the franchise has lost 10-plus games in consecutive seasons (2010-11).
This was always going to be a difficult year for the Panthers as the team began a long-term rebuild under head coach Matt Rhule.
The upside of another down season is the draft order. Currently, the Panthers are in line for a top pick in the 2021 NFL draft. Last year, they selected defensive tackle Derrick Brown with the seventh overall pick. Brown was the eighth pick they have made in the first 10 picks of the draft in team history.
Based on the Sunday afternoon games, the Panthers are on pace to have the fourth overall pick. There are two games left in the season with Carolina heading to Washington (6-8) next week and hosting the New Orleans Saints (10-4) to end the season.
The current top-15 picks in the draft if the season ended today:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)
2. New York Jets (1-13)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1)
4. Carolina Panthers (4-10)
5. Atlanta Falcons (4-10)
6. Houston Texans (4-10) - Pick has been traded to the Miami Dolphins
7. Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1)
8.. Dallas Cowboys (5-9)
9. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
10. NY Giants (5-9)
11. Detroit Lions (5-9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (5-9)
13. Denver Broncos (5-9)
14. Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
15. New England Patriots (6-8)
Check out the full draft order here.
Why are the Panthers fourth if multiple teams are 4-10?
If teams have the same record at the end of the season, draft position is determined by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents, per the NFL. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick.
The Panthers’ strength of schedule is .531, just slightly lower than the Falcons’ .536. The Texans’ strength of schedule is currently .552.
Carolina was helped by a Dallas win over San Francisco on Sunday and a Chargers win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday night.
How high can the Panthers go?
The best the Panthers can do is the third overall pick. They cannot catch up to the Jets or Jaguars. For the third pick to happen, Carolina would have to lose out and Cincinnati would have to win at least two more games — 4-12 is a worse record than 4-11-1 or 5-10-1. The Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) Monday night, visit the Texans and host the Baltimore Ravens (9-5).
How low can the Panthers go?
There’s many scenarios here. Multiple teams are bunched together. If they finish the season 6-10, it’s certainly possible that they move out of the top 10 of the draft. It will depend how the teams around them perform with so many teams having the same or similar records. But the odds of finishing with a pick in the top 10 are high.
Required reading
+ Analysis: Panthers loss to Packers shows they aren’t learning from mistakes. Why not?
+ Panthers did something important against Packers they hadn’t done much of all season
+ Grading the Carolina Panthers in their 24-16 loss to the Green Bay Packers
+ Teddy Bridgewater’s fumble at goal line symbolizes a Panthers season of almosts
