Panthers can still get third pick. Here are the NFL draft scenarios entering Week 17

There is no denying it, the Carolina Panthers’ draft positioning took a hit with the win over the Washington Football Team.

With a loss, the Panthers would be sitting at the third overall pick. Now at 5-10, they are in the ninth spot if the season ended today.

But it doesn’t end today. There is one game left vs. the New Orleans Saints at 4:25 p.m. Sunday on FOX.

The first two picks are set — Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14) and the New York Jets (2-13). The Panthers could still get that third overall pick, but it would be difficult. Here’s where they need help from.

With a loss vs. Saints

The third overall pick is within reach at 5-11. They would need all of these events to happen:

▪ Houston Texans (4-11) win over the Tennessee Titans (10-5). Titans are in the playoffs with a win.

▪ Atlanta Falcons (4-11) win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Buccaneers have less to play for than other NFC plaoff teams as they are already slated for a wild-card spot.

▪ Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1) win over the Baltimore Ravens (10-5). Ravens are in the playoffs with a win.

▪ Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1) win over the Washington Football Team (6-9). Washington is in the playoffs with a win.

▪ Detroit Lions (5-10) win over the Minnesota Vikings (6-9). Neither team has anything to play for. If the Panthers were to beat the Saints, a Vikings loss would be a bad thing. With both at 6-10, Minnesota would win a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker and get a better pick.

▪ New York Giants (5-10) win over the Dallas Cowboys (6-9). Both could win the NFC East with a win and some help. This game is tricky for the Panthers, however. If they were to beat the Saints, a Cowboys loss would be a bad thing. With both at 6-10, Dallas would win a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker and get a better pick.

▪ Denver Broncos (6-9) win over the Las Vegas Raiders (7-8). Neither team has anything to play for, but this game is not a must as the Panthers own the tiebreaker.

If some, but not all of those events happen, Carolina will at least have a chance to move into the top five. The Lions and Giants currently have a easier strength of schedule than the Panthers, which makes things more difficult as it is the first tiebreaker when teams have the same record. Those two teams having the tiebreaker make the outcome of their games far more important than the outcome of the Broncos’ game. Carolina has the tiebreaker over Denver.

With losses by all of those teams, the best the Panthers could do with a loss is ninth.

With a win vs. Saints

Strength of schedule will not benefit the Panthers here. If they finish 6-10, there is chance they pick as high as even the 13th pick.

Here’s who they would need to win to get some help:

▪ Dallas Cowboys (6-9) — See above.

▪ Los Angeles Chargers (6-9) win over the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1). The Chiefs have locked up the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.

▪ Minnesota Vikings (6-9) — See above.

The worst case is the 13th overall pick. For that to happen, several of the above teams would have to lose and multiple games break poorly for them as a tiebreaker.

Current 2021 NFL draft order:

1. Jaguars (1-14)

2. Jets (2-13)

3. Texans (4-11) - Pick is traded to the Miami Dolphins

4. Falcons (4-11)

5. Bengals (4-10-1)

6. Eagles (4-10-1)

7. Lions (5-10)

8. Giants (5-10)

9. Panthers (5-10)

10. Broncos (5-10)

11. Cowboys (6-9)

12. Chargers (6-9)

13. Vikings (6-9)

14. Patriots (6-9)

15. 49ers (6-9)

Week 17 NFL Schedule

This story was originally published December 28, 2020 at 10:31 AM.

Alaina Getzenberg

The Charlotte Observer

Alaina covers the Carolina Panthers for The Charlotte Observer. Before coming to Charlotte, she worked at The Dallas Morning News and The NFL Today on CBS. Support my work with a digital subscription