Coaches Matt Rhule should consider to be the Panthers’ next OC and what they’d bring
Before the Panthers’ 41-17 loss in their season finale to Tampa Bay on Sunday, reports surfaced that Matt Rhule had already reached out to several potential offensive coordinators in hopes of reshaping Carolina’s identity.
After the game, Rhule said he’d start a wide search to find the right candidate to fix the offense.
Internally, offensive assistant Jeff Nixon will be someone Rhule considers. Nixon took over for former offensive coordinator Joe Brady after the bye week. Statistically, the Panthers’ offense did not improve under him; however, Rhule pointed to improved process and coaching throughout the week in support of Nixon.
Carolina did not have time to alter its offense. Nixon essentially called Brady’s system, which did not fit the Panthers’ personnel. If he’s retained, expect an offensive remodel.
Whomever Rhule hires will completely remake the offense. It’s been reported that owner David Tepper wants Rhule to bring in an established coordinator (possibly a former NFL head coach).
General manager Scott Fitterer and Rhule both spoke Monday as part of the Panthers’ exit interviews. Rhule doubled down on targeting an offensive coordinator with prior play-calling experience. Fitterer said he’d let Rhule handle his staff but agreed that a veteran play-caller should take priority.
“I’d like to have someone who has experience having done it, having been a coordinator,“ Rhule said. “Having someone that’s done it before, that doesn’t have to be it, but it’s something I’m going to look at.”
Let’s break down some possible offensive coordinator candidates, starting with Nixon.
Jeff Nixon (interim play-caller)
If Tepper demands Rhule hire a rockstar coordinator then it won’t be Nixon. But the 47-year-old interim play-caller did earn Rhule’s trust this season.
Early in Nixon’s tenure, Rhule pointed to the Panthers’ more focused running offense (measured by total rushing attempts) and improved third-quarter scoring for evidence Nixon belonged. Those trends did not consistently materialize through Nixon’s five-game tryout.
The Panthers’ offense regressed in their final five games. They scored five fewer points per game, averaged about 40 fewer yards and allowed almost two more sacks per game.
Nixon taking over wasn’t going to save the Panthers’ offense. Like Cam Newton, he wasn’t put in an advantageous situation. But with such limited results, it would be a surprise if Nixon takes over as offensive coordinator.
Kevin O’Connell (Rams offensive coordinator)
Each offseason, a branch from Sean McVay’s coaching tree draws either play calling or head coaching interest. This year is no different. Kevin O’Connell (36 years old) has spent the past two years in Los Angeles as the offensive coordinator.
McVay calls the Rams’ plays but O’Connell has influence over the offense and has gained respect throughout the league. He also works closely with the quarterbacks, earning credit for the impressive season Matt Stafford had.
Landing O’Connell may be difficult. Last season, the Rams blocked O’Connell from interviewing for lateral moves, which joining the Panthers would be. Perhaps McVay wouldn’t block O’Connell in consecutive seasons, allowing him to add valuable play-calling experience to his resume.
Before joining the Rams, O’Connell served as Washington’s offensive coordinator, quarterback coach and passing game coordinator.
He’s the least experienced on this list, aligning closer to Joe Brady than other reported candidates.
Bill O’Brien (former Texans head coach)
Currently Alabama’s offensive coordinator and quarterback coach, Bill O’Brien was last seen in the NFL trading away multiple first-round picks for left tackle Laremy Tunsil before being fired by the Texans.
After one season in Tuscaloosa, he should be back in the pros soon. Whether that is as an offensive coordinator or head coach remains to be seen.
O’Brien won four AFC South titles in seven seasons as the Houston Texans head coach. Before that, he coached multiple positions for the New England Patriots, which culminated in an offensive coordinator gig in 2011. He’s orchestrated Pro-Bowl seasons from quarterback Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady.
O’Brien would bring the high-level experience Rhule and Fitterer talked about. His offenses have been multiple through the years, showing he evolved with the times. With New England, O’Brien opened the Patriots’ offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker from 2007 to 2010.
He took over as offensive coordinator in 2011 and helped design the Patriot’s two-tight end offense centered around Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. That season, Welker caught 122 passes for 1,569 yards while Gronkowski and Hernandez combined for 169 grabs, 2,237 yards, and 24 touchdowns.
With Houston, O’Brien built an offense tailored to Watson’s rare freelancing ability. In his last full season with the Texans, Watson threw for a league-high 4,823 yards.
Jay Gruden (former Washington head coach)
Taking a coordinator position makes sense for former Washington coach Jay Gruden. He experienced less success at his last stop than other head coaching candidates like O’Brien, Doug Pederson, or Jim Caldwell.
Gruden won one NFC East title during six seasons in Washington. He was fired after an 0-5 start in 2019, finishing with a career 35-49 record as a head coach.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins helped take Washington to the playoffs in 2015, where it lost to the Packers in the wild-card round. That year, Cousins completed 70 percent of his passes for 4,166 yards and 29 touchdowns.
Gruden entrusted Cousins with the offense after Robert Griffin III and Colt McCoy all split time the prior season. Gruden played six different quarterbacks during his time in Washington. When Cousins left for the Vikings in 2018, Gruden turned to Alex Smith, who suffered a gruesome leg injury in November, leaving Gruden once again searching for a quarterback.
When Gruden lost Cousins, his offenses suffered. In 2015 and 2016, Washington’s offense finished 12th and fifth, respectively in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric. (DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.)
Without Cousins, Washington never eclipsed a top-20 DVOA ranking again under Gruden. Considering Carolina’s quarterback uncertainty, Gruden would have to invent an offense without a proven passer.
Before Washington, Gruden was the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. There he helped develop then-rookie Andy Dalton from 2011 to 2013. In those three years, Cincinnati made three-straight wild-card appearances.
What we learned
Don’t expect the Panthers to hire an offensive coordinator quickly. Rhule said there are plenty of quality candidates he cannot interview this week. Coordinators in the playoffs cannot interview until their respective season concludes.
The four candidates on this list are the top names to watch. There will be several more candidates who emerge as Rhule’s process unfolds. We’ll update this list accordingly.
Carolina desperately needs an offensive makeover. Rhule must take his time with his hire; his job depends on his next coordinator successfully finding a quarterback and formulating an offensive identity.
This story was originally published January 11, 2022 at 12:00 PM.
