Can Super Bowl runner-up Cincinnati Bengals be a blueprint for the Carolina Panthers?
It’s the pre-Super Bowl question everyone is asking.
How did the Cincinnati Bengals get here?
A more pointed version of that question exists in every corner of jaded fandom. “How can (insert your team here) become next year’s Bengals?
Somewhere, the smartest person in the room read the above inquiry (or just read this story’s headline) and hastily responded “Easy. Draft Joe Burrow.”
What a bravely brilliant declaration.
Of course it starts with Burrow. But think about how the Bengals actually reached Super Bowl 56. Their last divisional and championship round victories ended with game-winning Evan McPherson kicks as time expired.
In between Burrow and McPherson are a plethora of playmaking pass catchers, a Pro Bowl running back, the league’s most flexible defense, a leaky offensive line and a Year 3 head coach whose organizational priorities few outside of Paul Brown Stadium believed in.
What are the chances Carolina can become next season’s Bengals?
Consider the similarities. Last year, Zach Taylor was in Matt Rhule’s current situation as a Year 2 coach coming off consecutive double-digit losing seasons. Both offenses featured mismatch-creating running backs, two good — but not great — receivers, and bottom-tier offensive lines. Defensively, both units have rosters with difference-making edge rushers and a talented secondary.
Of course there are key differences, which we’ll explore. First, let’s take a closer look at how the Bengals came to be.
Making the Bengals
The quarterback
In 2020, the agent to then free agent defensive tackle D.J. Reader asked him a simple question. “Would you rather play with Drew Lock or Joe Burrow?”
The Broncos and Bengals were bidding for Reader’s services. Reader picked Burrow, signing a four-year, $53 million deal at $14 million annually, which at the time made him the highest-paid nose tackle in football.
This past offseason, the Bengals spent a lot in free agency to bring in key starters on both sides of the ball. As part of a recruiting dinner, Burrow played a key role in convincing tackle Riley Reiff to sign. The tackle (who has been hurt since Week 13) joined three new corners, a stud defensive end and an in-division defensive tackle as Cincinnati’s 2021 free agent class.
“The thing that people don’t give him enough credit for is the value in recruiting that Burrow had,” Bengals beat reporter Charlie Goldsmith told The Observer. “He set a tone for guys like Mike Hilton, and Larry Ogunjobi and Trey Hendrickson to want to play in Cincinnati in the first place.”
Burrow’s leadership laid a foundation for the Bengals to follow. His play on the field pushed Cincinnati to its first Super Bowl since 1988.
The Panthers do not have Burrow. Maybe they’ll find their franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft. Selecting sixth, Carolina should have their choice of top prospects Malik Willis (Liberty) or Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh). But drafting a rookie puts the Panthers on a different timeline than Cincinnati. Which is why trading for a veteran could suit the Panthers better.
Though Burrow is only in his second season, he is 25 years old, and six months older than Sam Darnold, who is entering his fifth year. Either way, find a quarterback. That has been the Panthers’ plan all along.
Invest at wide receiver
Here is where Carolina can relate. The Panthers are on a short list of teams who have invested the most top 25 contracts and either Round 1 or 2 draft capital at wide receiver.
Lately, investing at pass catcher has led to NFL success. Carolina has poured capital into the receiver position that is comparable to the Jets, Cardinals, Dolphins, Chargers Cowboys, Bucs, Packers, Bears and Bills.
The Bengals spent the No. 4 pick on Offensive Rookie of the Year Ja’Marr Chase. Two years ago, they selected Tee Higgins a round after Burrow. And this past offseason Cincinnati re-signed slot receiver Tyler Boyd to a lucrative deal.
The common denominator among the losing teams on the “expensive” wideout list is poor quarterback play.
Carolina spent a 2018 first-round pick on DJ Moore. He’s compiled three-straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Robby Anderson is the 18th-highest paid wide receiver in football. Pro Football Focus rated Anderson 154th among 200 qualified receivers this past season. The Panthers drafted Terrace Marshall last year in Round 2 but the rookie caught just 17 passes in 13 games.
Both Carolina and the Bengals primarily feature their respective tailbacks as bell cows. Joe Mixon had a career season after injury derailed his 2020 campaign. Similarly, Christian McCaffrey alters defenses as one of the game’s best players. But the All-Pro back has missed 23 games due to injury over the past two seasons.
The Panthers and Bengals have invested similarly in pass catchers, but the results aren’t the same. Perhaps that can be blamed on quarterback play, as well.
Be flexible on defense
Carolina and Cincinnati both reshaped their defenses over the past few seasons. This year, the Panthers defense regressed, while the Bengals’ crescendoed toward the playoffs.
The Bengals paid top dollar ($15 million annually) to sign Pro Bowl edge rusher Trey Hendrickson away from the Saints. Then they added cornerbacks Mike Hilton, Eli Apple and Chidobe Awuzie.
Carolina can relate. Whether the Panthers retain edge rusher Haason Reddick or not, they still feature Pro Bowler Brian Burns at defensive end. One of the deepest secondaries in football lurks behind Burns. Jaycee Horn will return from a broken foot next season. The Panthers expect improvement from first-round pick C.J. Henderson They are also hopeful about re-signing both Stephon Gilmore and Donte Jackson.
Such versatility helped the Bengals blanket high-octane offenses like Tennessee and Kansas City. Carolina was second in yards allowed and are poised for another strong defensive year in 2022.
Great kicking
The Bengals found a playoff legend when they drafted McPherson in Round 5 of the 2021 draft. He has turned into one of their most consistent and clutch weapons.
McPherson has buried five game-winners, including all 12 of his postseason field-goal tries. Over the season, he’s hit 11 kicks from 50-plus yards and become a confident hero of this Bengals Super Bowl run.
The Panthers season began with an inconsistent kicking game. Before Zane Gonzalez, Carolina employed and later cut Joey Slye and Ryan Santoso. Gonzalez eventually established himself as one of the most consistent Panthers players. He made 20 of 22 field-goal attempts, including his last 17 tries. He was also 22 of 23 on extra-point attempts.
Carolina hopes to bring Gonzalez back this offseason after a Week 15 quad injury landed him on injured reserve. If they do, then the Panthers should feel confident in their kicking game.
Big moments create stars. The Panthers will have to put Gonzalez in positions to attempt critical kicks. But if the team is better, he should be ready for those moments, like McPherson was.
How close are the Panthers?
Offensive line woes
Aside from quarterback, the Panthers have similar ingredients to what Cincinnati cooked with to reach the Super Bowl. Somehow, the Bengals overcame having a worse offensive line than Carolina.
According to ESPN’s pass block win-rate metric, which measures the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. Carolina ranked 29th in pass block win-rate at 50%. The Bengals rank one spot lower at 30th, and win 49% of the time.
For all the misery the Panthers offensive line put Sam Darnold, Cam Newton and the fan base through, there is a lower-ranked line still “protecting” Burrow.
In the AFC divisional round, the Titans sacked Burrow nine times. The Bengals won, 19-16. Burrow set a record for most sacks taken in a playoff victory in NFL history.
Like the Panthers, Goldsmith said he expects the Bengals. to fix their offense this offseason. But Cincinnati is an example of, if a team can be right in almost every other position group, it’s possible to win with poor pass protection.
Year 2 hot seat
Before joining The Observer, I spent two seasons in Cleveland covering the Browns. After watching the Bengals live twice a season, I theorized that then-offensive coordinator Joe Brady would become the Bengals’ head coach following a disappointing third season for Taylor.
The narrative was simple: The Bengals finish under .500, accurately blame their coach, fire him and reunite Burrow and Chase with Brady. Instead, the Panthers fired Brady following their Week 13 bye week and Taylor is coaching in the Super Bowl.
Let that and the entire Bengals’ season serve as a lesson in how quickly NFL fortunes change.
Rhule enters his third season sitting on the same hot seat Taylor was. Taylor turned things around by sticking to his long-term organizational vision.
“Zach set organizational priorities in 2019 that led to the value of wide receivers of adjustability and flexibility on defense, and surrounding your quarterback with the right ecosystem,” Goldsmith said. “So that vision, he played a massive part in and without that vision, they don’t have the right pieces. So he deserves a lot of credit for things he’s not really associated with.”
It seems unlikely, but maybe Rhule can do the same.
This story was originally published February 13, 2022 at 12:00 AM.
