Would the asking price for Deshaun Watson hurt the Panthers? What history suggests
When the Houston Texans trade for Deshaun Watson, whenever that may be, it will certainly be costly.
In arguably the biggest trade in NFL history earlier this month, Denver gave Seattle two first-round picks, two second-round picks, quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fanta, Shelby Harris, and a fifth-round pick in exchange for Russell Wilson and a fourth-round pick.
This one will cost more.
“It’s just the cost of doing business now,” said Marc Ross, an analyst for NFL Network, who was also former front office executive and NFL wide receiver. “You go to the High Roller club at the casino. Is it worth it? I don’t know.
“But if you’re paying to get in, it’s worth it to you to go get in there and try to take that risk.”
At 26, Watson is considered one of the top quarterbacks in the league.
The expectation was that it would take three first-round draft picks, potentially a third-round pick or two, and a young player on a rookie contract. After meeting with Watson in Houston on Monday, the Panthers were willing to take that chance to get their quarterback of the future.
“The historical deal is the Russell Wilson deal, but he’s considerably older than is Deshaun Watson, so you have to factor that in,” former Colts, Bills and Panthers general manager Bill Polian said in an interview.
The Panthers became one of the top four teams in the running for Watson, presumably because they met the Texans’ trade demands. The others were the Saints, Falcons and Browns.
But is that too much for one player?
There have been similar deals in the past. Have they worked out?
History has shown the results are mixed. But the success largely depends on the player.
▪ The Los Angeles Rams did it with Matthew Stafford before the 2021 season, and linebacker Von Miller mid-season — two top tier players. The Rams sent two first-round draft picks, a third and Jared Goff in exchange for Stafford.
They sent a second and third round pick to the Broncos for Miller, in what ended up being a half-season rental (Miller agreed to a deal with Bills Wednesday).
But the moves paid off in the end. The Rams won a Super Bowl in 2022, beating the Bengals 23-20.
Carolina is in a little bit of a different situation, though. Los Angeles had a championship-caliber roster with a few missing pieces — particularly at quarterback. Stafford was that missing piece. And Miller made the defense even better.
How the Rams are affected in the future remains to be seen. They will not pick in the first round until 2024, unless they make a trade.
▪ In 1989, the Minnesota Vikings traded five players and six future draft picks for Cowboys running back Herschel Walker. Among others, the Cowboys were able to acquire Hall of Famer running back Emmitt Smith and five-time Pro Bowl safety Darren Woodson.
It eventually led to three Super Bowls for the Cowboys from 1993 to 1995.
As for the Vikings, they finished 20-23 during Walker’s 2 1/2 seasons with Minnesota. They were 6-5 after he got there in 1989, 6-10 in 1990 and 8-8 in 1991. He signed with the Philadelphia Eagles in 1992.
▪ In 1987, the Bills, the Rams and Colts were all involved in a three-team trade. Polian was the general manager of the Bills at the time. Buffalo traded two first-round draft picks, a second-round pick in a three team trade for the draft rights to linebacker Cornelius Bennett, the No. 2 pick that year.
The Bills improved each year and went to four Super Bowls from 1991 to 1994.
“That was the deal that put us in the four Super Bowls,” Polian said. “Cornelius Bennett was the last piece of the puzzle.”
Meanwhile, the Colts received running back Eric Dickerson and the Rams got three future first-round picks, three future second-round picks and two running backs.
Ross thinks the Panthers will be “significantly better” if they could pull off a trade with the Texans.
“With that being said, there they still got a lot of other pieces that they need to address and they have some other holes,” Ross said. “So Carolina, there’s still some flaws there that you don’t want to be the situation that he had in Houston where he was a one-man show.”
This story was originally published March 16, 2022 at 4:39 PM.
