A Panthers trade for Baker Mayfield or Jimmy G likely waits until after Day 1 of draft
With the 2022 NFL Draft less than a week away, the Panthers are one of a handful of teams with a glaring need at quarterback. But do not expect Carolina to trade for one before the draft, a league source tells The Charlotte Observer.
If a trade were to happen, it would most likely occur after the first round, which begins at 8 p.m. Thursday. The two most feasible trade options for Carolina are the Browns’ Baker Mayfield and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
There are several inhibitors to a Panthers’ trade for either Mayfield or Garoppolo. Until either quarterback is considered a depreciating asset by their respective clubs, Carolina has little trade incentive considering how lethargic the trade market is for both.
There is a disconnect between what the Browns and 49ers are asking for their former starting quarterbacks compared to their league-wide perception.
Focusing on Mayfield, Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cobot reported the Browns do not want to pay any of his $18.86 fully guaranteed fifth-year option. The Browns are also seeking one or multiple picks for Mayfield. Cleveland unloading his entire contract and also getting a pick or two back is unlikely.
“I’d do a fourth (round pick),” a former NFL executive told The Observer. “But wait to see what shakes out in Round 1.”
Until Cleveland lowers its asking price and agrees to take on some of Mayfield’s contract, he’s difficult to trade. Even if that happens, there is still a chance Carolina is bidding against itself. A team interested in Mayfield should ask the Browns how much of his contract they are willing to convert. If they offer a number then it’s likely there are no other suitors.
Despite initial reports of ”mutual disinterest” between the Panthers and Mayfield, both sides have continued to monitor the situation. The Panthers understand landing Mayfield — who is only a year removed from throwing 26 touchdowns to eight interceptions, finishing 10th in total QBR and leading the Browns to their first playoff victory since 1994 — improves their quarterback room. As The Observer reported last month, Sam Darnold and backup P.J. Walker won’t be Carolina’s only rostered quarterbacks come August.
For Carolina, it comes down to asking price, 2022 money owed, and timing. Since losing out on Deshaun Watson — who signed a league-altering $230 million fully guaranteed contract extension with the Browns after they acquired via trade — the Panthers have remained patient at quarterback. Once Watson picked Cleveland, the Saints quickly re-signed Jameis Wintson and Atlanta picked up Marcus Mariota.
Carolina is slow playing it. There is little reason to abandon that strategy days before the draft begins when Round 1 should be the last major domino to fall in this offseason’s quarterback market.
“There’s a benefit to not showing your hand in terms of the draft and what you’re going to do,” NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said. “If the Carolina Panthers made a trade for Baker Mayfield today, I would guess that every general manager in the NFL would say they’re taking a tackle with that pick. So at least it kind of keeps them from showing their hand a little bit if they were to wait.”
Once Cleveland is willing to pay a percentage of Mayfield’s nearly $19 million contract, then a refreshed market should develop. Carolina has reasons to reengage in potential trade talks once the first round concludes if the team does not select a quarterback. The Panthers have done extensive research on the rookie quarterback class, including having Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral and Sam Howell in for top-30 visits.
Similar logic applies to a potential Garoppolo trade.
It’s no secret the 49ers are trying to trade Garoppolo. He is owed $26.9 million in 2022 if San Francisco does not cut him. Last year, the 49ers spent the No. 3 overall pick on Trey Lance. He’s expected to start this season.
In March, Garoppolo also had reportedly successful surgery on his right throwing shoulder. The procedure will prevent him from throwing a football for up to 16 weeks, which complicates his trade value if he cannot throw for teams until August. The 49ers have the third-most-expensive quarterback room behind only Tennessee and Kansas City. That will change. Eventually, the 49ers will cut Garoppolo unless a trade market emerges.
Garoppolo or Mayfield would mesh nicely with new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo’s west-coast, uptempo system. It’s similar to what Mayfield ran with Freddie Kitchens during his record-setting 2018 season. Garoppolo would benefit from a fast-paced style reliant on accurate pre-snap decisions.
It may disappoint Panthers receiver Robby Anderson, but next Friday afternoon when the second round begins will be when a Mayfield trade becomes more likely. Currently, the Panthers do not have a Day 2 pick. But that doesn’t mean general manager Scott Fitterer won’t be active.
