Amid McCaffrey trade noise, Panthers defense preps for Tom Brady, Buccaneers offense
Panthers defensive coordinator Al Holcomb remembers his first Tom Brady moment.
“It was with the New York Giants in 2009,” Holcomb said. “So I am familiar. I have played him it seems like just about every year I’ve been in the league.”
Brady was a 10th-year veteran that season. Holcomb was a defensive quality control coach for the Giants.
On Sunday, Holcomb, 51, will call the Panthers’ defense against Brady and the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay (3-3) and Carolina (1-5) are the only undefeated teams in the NFC South. That will change Sunday. The Panthers are 13-point home underdogs, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook.
To upset the defending division champions, Holcomb will have to call one of his best games in just his second contest as the team’s defensive coordinator. His familiarity with Brady won’t make Sunday any easier.
“He still stands strong in the pocket,” Holcomb said. “He still delivers the ball with tremendous accuracy. He still has great arm talent and arm strength. And the football IQ has not dropped.”
Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks made clear the type of quarterback Carolina is preparing for.
“We are talking about the best to ever play the position,” Wilks said. “He does a great job of getting rid of the ball, 2.3 seconds. So we got to do a good job of really trying to create a bit of pressure up the middle, get our hands up. And most important, we got to do a great job on the perimeter.”
Defensive end Brian Burns has not sacked Brady in his career. The two have faced each other four times. Burns said if he cannot reach Brady there are other ways to influence his throws.
“It mainly has to come from inside. You gotta get in his face, get his windows and fall around his feet,” Burns said. “He doesn’t like guys just in his personal space. He doesn’t care if you are behind him.”
Many have tried and failed to rough up the 45-year-old Brady. When pressure doesn’t work, coverage must be sticky. Such responsibility will land on cornerbacks CJ Henderson, Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson.
Henderson and Horn were both limited practice participants on Thursday. Jackson did not practice. Horn did not play against the Rams, but the team is hopeful he can return Sunday to defend Pro Bowl receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Horn is quickly becoming one of the league’s best cover corners. He is hardly targeted and rarely allows completions when he is. His 40.9% catch rate is second-best among cornerbacks with at least 100 snaps according to Pro Football Focus.
Teams are avoiding Horn and instead throwing at Henderson. The third-year cornerback is allowing 81% of his targets to be completed. His 102.6 passer rating is a career-high.
As a unit, the Panthers rank 25th against the pass according to Football Outsiders DVOA metric. (DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.)
After Thursday’s practice, linebacker Shaq Thompson said the team can get back on track against Brady by playing better football.
“We gotta go out there and play better Panther football. We got to go out there and communicate. We got to go out there and execute and tackle. We got to go out there and have fun. We gotta go out there and celebrate with each other,” Thompson said. “Because all this type of stuff that goes into winning. It’s not just going out there and just doing your job, you got to go out there and have fun with it.”
But Brady and the Bucs are in bounce-back mode after a puzzling two-point loss to Pittsburgh last week. The Buccaneers scored 18 points and only nine in the second half. Brady was captured yelling at his offensive line during the first half.
Tampa Bay prefers to run the football on first down. On first and 10, the Bucs run it 58% of the time. Carolina should want Tampa Bay to commit to the run considering the team is 32nd in EPA (expected points added) per play on runs.
In the second half against Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay ran it on eight of its 10 first downs. Only once did the Bucs gain more than four yards on those plays. On early downs against the Steelers, Tampa Bay had 21 rushes for 62 yards (2.59 yards per carry). Through six games, the Bucs average 3.37 yards per carry on first and second down, which ranks 31st in the NFL.
Data suggests Tampa Bay is not a good rushing team. Holcomb, however, sees it differently.
“I see a powerful run game,” Holcomb said. They’re trying to get downhill and make the corners tackle and make the secondary tackle. That’s what I’m seeing on tape. They have a really good scheme in terms of what they’re doing and how they try to attack you and try to expose you.”
Regardless of how the Panthers defend Brady, Carolina will get exposed without offensive support.
Starting quarterback PJ Walker was a fourth-grader when his hometown Eagles lost to Brady and the Patriots in 2005. Thirteen years later, Walker was on the Colts practice squad when backup quarterback Nick Foles led Philadelphia to a Super Bowl victory against Brady.
Walker will need to channel his inner Foles to pull off the lower-staked upset.
“Never dreamt it,” the Carolina quarterback said about starting opposite Brady. “But it is going to be fun.”
