With Christian McCaffrey traded, what happens to the Carolina Panthers’ offense?
Watching a healthy Christian McCaffrey carry the Carolina Panthers’ offense in 2022 was fun for fantasy football while it lasted.
After missing 23 of 33 games in 2020 and 2021 with ankle, shoulder, thigh and hamstring injuries, McCaffrey returned this season as an ironman.
In six games, the standout running back played 85% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps and accounted for 43% of the team’s total offense. He ranks 12th in rushing attempts with 85 carries and his 33 receptions are 15th-best in the league regardless of position.
McCaffrey would likely have even more touches if the Panthers had the ball more — they rank last in the NFL in plays run.
In his final game with Carolina — a 24-10 loss to the Los Angeles Rams — McCaffrey gained 158 of the team’s 203 total yards (78%).
Without him, the Panthers horizontal-raid offense lost its only consistent threat. Once again, it’s on offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo to do more with less.
For the first time in his career, PJ Walker is expected to start consecutive games. Against the Rams, Walker completed 10 of 16 passes for 60 yards. Only one completion traveled beyond a yard and five passes went to McCaffrey.
If the offense again asks Walker to exclusively throw near the line of scrimmage, then running back Raheem Blackshear should see an increased workload. Blackshear, who was signed last month off the Bills’ practice squad, plays explosively and is a receiving threat. In Week 5 he returned seven kicks for 200 yards, including a season-long 45-yard return.
Expect D’Onta Foreman to start Sunday. He is capable of handling early down work. Chuba Hubbard could spell on third downs, with Blackshear adding depth.
A three-headed rushing attack, however, won’t replace McCaffrey. The only proven playmaker left on offense is receiver DJ Moore.
The Panthers’ offense was in a similar position around this time last year, though for a very different reason: McCaffrey was injured. Again. He started seven games in 2021 before finishing the season on the sideline. He played six this season.
Cam Newton is not coming back this time, but Sam Darnold (ankle) will return soon. Baker Mayfield (ankle) is fighting to return earlier than expected. But if he plays more than 75% of the team’s total snaps then the fifth-round pick Carolina traded the Browns becomes a fourth.
Last season the Panthers endured two offensive coordinators and an unstable offensive line. Despite bringing in McAdoo and plugging in three new starters on the line, the Panthers’ offense has gotten worse.
Perhaps Carolina thrives under the “Ewing Theory”. Popularized by Bill Simmons, the Ewing Theory accounts for a team inexplicably playing better following the departure of a star player. For that to happen, Moore must become the offense’s focal point. A three-time 1,100-yard receiver, he is on pace for 56 receptions, 578 yards and 2.5 touchdowns. All marks would be career lows.
Behind Moore, the team will keep playing second-year receiver Terrace Marshall, newly acquired playmaker Laviska Shenault, slot receiver Shi Smith and veteran Rashard Higgins. Those targets have a combined 14 receptions.
Two of the team’s three receptions leaders were traded this week in Robbie Anderson (Cardinals) and McCaffrey.
Tight ends Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble and Gio Ricci remain serviceable.
Moore posting No. 1 receiver numbers again is unlikely considering NFL offenses don’t transform overnight. Rarely will a team scrap its offense and try something fundamentally different.
Interim head coach Steve Wilks has 10 weeks left to prove he should be considered for the job by Dave Tepper. After firing former coach Matt Rhule last week, Tepper said Wilks would have to perform incredibly to be in contention.
Down his best player, Wilks faces a predictable future. He’ll motivate and ensure the Panthers are ready to play on Sunday, but Carolina was a 10.5-point home underdog before the McCaffrey trade. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers have a 42% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Carolina is about six times more likely than the Bears, Cardinals, Texans and Lions to pick first.
By trading McCaffrey, the Panthers will incur $26.1 million in dead money over the next two years, according to Spotrac.
Perhaps the night is darkest before dawn. Carolina received second-, third- and fourth-round pick in 2023 and a fifth-round pick in 2024 for an expensive running back with an injury history.
McCaffrey’s influence on the Panthers could carry years beyond his employment if even one of those picks transcends. As former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi once said about evaluating draft selections, “It doesn’t matter where you pick them. It matters how they play.”
The draft is not until April 2023. Until then, the Panthers are stuck with an offense restrained by its quarterbacks, its play-caller, and an owner in Tepper who signed off on it all.
This story was originally published October 21, 2022 at 10:07 AM.
