Grading the trade: Was Panthers deal with 49ers for RB Christian McCaffrey worth it?
The Carolina Panthers recouped some serious draft capital on Thursday by trading longtime franchise stalwart, running back Christian McCaffrey, to the San Francisco 49ers.
McCaffrey, the team’s bell-cow playmaker, had been the Panthers’ lone consistent offensive weapon through a 1-5 start that saw Carolina fire former head coach Matt Rhule in Week 6 and then lose the follow-up matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, 24-10, after only scoring three points on offense.
With McCaffrey now in San Francisco, the Panthers can rebuild in earnest after receiving a new lease on life in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Let’s grade the trade.
Trade Package
The Panthers sent McCaffrey to the 49ers for 2023 second-, third- and fourth-round picks, and a 2024 fifth-round pick, according to a league source.
Analysis
With McCaffrey off the roster, the outlook for the Panthers’ offense over the next 11 games gets put on snooze. McCaffrey accounted for 77.8% of the Panthers’ offense against the Rams, and that output was largely indicative of his value to that side of the ball.
McCaffrey led the Panthers with 393 rushing yards and 277 receiving yards through the first six games of this season. Quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are both sidelined with high ankle sprains, and PJ Walker threw just a handful of passes beyond the line of scrimmage in his first start against the Rams.
Still, the 49ers offered a package enticing enough to move on from McCaffrey. While McCaffrey is one of the most talented running backs in the league, he is still a running back, which is a position largely devalued in the NFL. However, GM Scott Fitterer managed to replenish his draft nest egg for next year by spreading out the wealth of the deal instead of simply going after a first-round pick and change.
The Panthers had just four 2023 draft picks on the books heading into the week. Following the deal, they are back to seven picks for the selection process. The Panthers had traded away their third-, sixth- and seventh-round picks for next year, but now they’ll have the following:
▪ A first-round pick (CAR)
▪ Two second-round picks (CAR/SF)
▪ A third-round pick (SF)
▪ Two fourth-round picks (CAR/SF)
▪ A fifth-round pick (CAR)
That’s a much-improved package for the Panthers.
While McCaffrey was the linchpin to the Panthers’ offense, he was also an oft-injured playmaker. He only played in 10 games combined during the 2020 and 2021 seasons due to a plethora of injuries.
Ailments aside, while McCaffrey was a productive workhorse, that production never really led to success during the Matt Rhule era. Again, McCaffrey was the Panthers’ entire offense through six games, and the Panthers were 1-5 with little hope in sight.
Trading McCaffrey and acquiring the type of package the Panthers got from the 49ers, allows Carolina to hold onto other pieces without panic. Defensive end Brian Burns, wideout D.J. Moore and defensive tackle Derrick Brown should be locked in tight as building blocks and attraction pieces for the next head coach.
With McCaffrey gone, the Panthers need to keep some pieces in place to entice a potential candidate to sign on the dotted line. Draft picks aren’t enough to make a team desirable.
While trading McCaffrey will make the Panthers potentially unwatchable on offense over the next three months, that’ll simply be par for the course. The Panthers made the right move given the outlook Carolina had this season, and the lack of picks the team had in place before the deal.
Grade
While this was the right move for the Panthers, there are some bumps in the road with dead money, which according to Over The Cap, is about $26.3 million over this season and next. The McCaffrey deal would have lost the majority of it guarantees next year, so trading him in the offseason would have probably been more palatable from a cap perspective.
Still, the Panthers got a really nice deal and they can operate like a typical team in the draft next year. Before that, though, they’ll need to figure out their salary-cap situation, which is projected to be among the worst in the league next year following the trades of McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson.
GRADE: B
This story was originally published October 21, 2022 at 10:20 AM.
