Panthers vs. Falcons: Will Carolina’s run defense be exposed in prime time?
If the Panthers do not win on Thursday night, the rest of their games aren’t going to matter much.
Over the past five weeks, Carolina fired its head coach, traded its best player and trailed by 35 points in a half, all while starting a former fourth-string quarterback. Yet, the Panthers (2-7) still have a chance to win the NFC South and host a playoff game. Carolina is a mere two games out of its division lead and hosts the first-place Atlanta Falcons (4-5) on Thursday night.
Just 11 days ago Carolina lost 37-34 in overtime to the Falcons. The Panthers had multiple chances to win the game. Kicker Eddy Piñeiro missed two game-winning tries, one extra point with 23 seconds to play and the other a 33-yard field goal attempt in overtime.
If Carolina played in any other division, its season would be mathematically over. But the NFC South has a combined record of 13-23. In comparison, the AFC East is 23-10.
Symbolic of the division, Thursday’s forecast includes on-and-off rain with winds between 20 and 30 mph as Tropical Storm Nicole nears the Carolinas.
Here are two keys to victory plus an updated injury report.
Helping Derrick Brown
Over the past two weeks, the Panthers defense has allowed 870 yards of total offense and 79 points. Four-hundred and eight of those yards (47%) have come on the ground.
Much like its season, the Panthers run defense is on life support.
Falcons star running back Cordarrelle Patterson is back from injury. He scored two rushing touchdowns in his return last week after missing four games with a hamstring injury.
Opposing offenses are running directly at defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, defensive tackle Marquan McCall, linebacker Frankie Luvu, linebacker Shaq Thompson and doubling defensive tackle Derrick Brown.
McCall is an undrafted free agent. Thompson is a 28-year-old who still shows some flashes and Luvu is better as a pass rusher. The team needs more out of Gross-Matos, who was selected in the second round two years ago. He must start setting a firm edge and stop getting pushed backward by tight ends.
Teams are neutralizing Brown by doubling him. To counter that, Carolina could try deploying five down defensive linemen to eliminate easy double-team opportunities.
Defensive coordinator Al Holcomb should challenge Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota to throw. Against Carolina, Mariota posted a season-high 253 passing yards and three touchdowns. Holcomb must find a way to turn Mariota over when he does drop back to pass.
Atlanta relies on play-action to throw. Holcomb may again rely on man defense this week, which would allow Panthers linebackers and safeties to blitz if the Falcons’ running backs and tight ends stay in to block.
The Falcons feature two blue-chip pass catchers in receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. But neither gets the ball much. Last week in a 20-17 loss to the Chargers, Pitts led all Falcons pass catchers with two receptioins for 27 yards.
A Chuba Hubbard spark?
The Panthers’ offense was nonexistent in the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals. Carolina ran a franchise-low 17 plays in the first half and averaged 3.4 plays per drive. Carolina went three-and-out on all but one first-half series.
Thursday should be different considering Carolina ran a season-high 73 plays against Atlanta two weeks ago. Similar logic is why quarterback PJ Walker is starting despite being benched versus the Bengals after posting a 0.0 quarterback rating, throwing two interceptions and completing just three passes for 9 yards. Walker threw for a career-high 317 yards in Atlanta, including a highlight reel 62-yard touchdown to DJ Moore that nearly won the game.
Offensively everything about this matchup is the same as it was in Week 8, except running back Chuba Hubbard is back.
Hubbard has not played since the the Panthers’ 21-3 victory over the Buccaneers. He rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries but injured his ankle.
Running back D’Onta Foreman has dominated the carries in Hubbard’s absence. But he gained just 23 yards on seven touches last week. The game script got away from Carolina early last week. Foreman should be in line for another heavy workload on Thursday.
Hubbard provides an ideal complement to Foreman and should be involved in the game plan.
Two weeks ago, Moore and Terrace Marshall combined for 239 yards and 10 catches against an injury-riddled Falcons secondary. Atlanta already ruled out No. 1 cornerback A.J. Terrell. Weather conditions may limit Moore and Marshall, but the duo should have an advantage against the Falcons’ defensive backs when Carolina does throw.
Marshall scored his first career touchdown against the Bengals.
The Panthers will continue running the ball, and Thursday’s game could be a short one. Like Carolina, Atlanta runs often on first down and second down — only the Giants and Bears gain a higher percentage of their offense on the ground than Atlanta. The Falcons are fourth in the NFL in rush attempts per game (33.2) and 30th in pass attempts (22.4).
Latest injury report
The team expects Hubbard back. He was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice but is questionable to play.
Cornerback Donte Jackson is also questionable. He was a full participant during both practices this week. He was active last week but did not play a snap. Interim coach Steve Wilks said Jackson was available in case of emergency.
After practice on Tuesday Jackson told media he plans on playing.
Defensive end Brian Burns does not carry a game status and will play. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury. Defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis (back), and right tackle Taylor Moton (elbow) are questionable after each practiced fully.
The team did not activate safety Jeremy Chinn to the roster, meaning he will not play. Carolina already ruled out safety Juston Burris (concussion) and receiver Rashard Higgins (illness).
Cornerback C.J. Henderson (finger), Luvu (neck), receiver Laviska Shenault (illness) and tight end Stephen Sullivan (illness) are all expected to play and do not carry a game status.
