The state of the NFC South: A deeper look into the future of a division in transition
Just like that, the Panthers are back in the playoff hunt.
By defeating Atlanta, 25-15, on Thursday night, Carolina (3-7) pulled within 1.5 games of the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Who knows which team will prevail in this underwhelming division? The Buccaneers remain the Vegas favorite to win it. The Saints have the toughest remaining schedule. Neither Carolina nor Atlanta look like a playoff team.
But the winner of the NFC South will host a playoff game as the No. 4 seed.
According to ESPN stats and information, the Buccaneers have a 68% chance to win the division, followed by Atlanta with 17%. The Saints have a 12% chance and the Panthers only have a 3% shot.
At 3-1, the Panthers have the best division record. Carolina has wins against each NFC South team. To keep its playoff hopes alive, Carolina must win a few games outside of the division. In Week 15, the Panthers host Pittsburgh (2-6) followed by a home game against the Lions (2-6). The Panthers’ season concludes with consecutive road games against Tampa Bay (Week 17) and the Saints (Week 18).
If Carolina can win two of its next five games, the season’s final two weeks could determine the division title. Before hosting the Steelers, the Panthers are at Baltimore and Seattle and host Denver. Carolina will be heavy road underdogs against the Ravens and Seahawks, but beating the Broncos is possible.
Thanks to the mediocrity of the NFC South, fans can forecast Carolina playoff scenarios rather than project first-round draft picks. The NFC South has a combined record of 14-24. In comparison, the AFC East is 23-10.
The NFC South winner will likely be home underdogs in the playoffs. Which is representative of the state of the division. All four teams are middling organizations facing a critical crossroads.
Let’s examine each team by dissecting the key pieces of each franchise — the head coach, quarterback, and draft outlook — then project what that means for the future of the NFC South.
Will Carolina retain Steve Wilks?
Of all the NFC South teams, the Panthers have the longest range of possible outcomes.
With seven games remaining, interim head coach Steve Wilks is campaigning for the full-time job. The team rosters enough marquee talent to show flashes of promise, but is too inconsistent to make a playoff run.
Wilks maximizes this season by winning the NFC South and losing a home playoff game.
Things would get very interesting and quite unpredictable if Wilks earns owner David Tepper his first playoff berth.
Head coach forecast: Equally as important as a quarterback, the Panthers will go as far as the team’s next coach can take them. The next coach must have more than vision. Carolina needs a master strategist with branding awareness and a CEO mentality.
Wilks fits those three key traits. He understands the game beyond scheme and play calling. Each week, he details exactly what it will take to win to his players and fellow coaches, and expects follow through.
“Something said is something meant,” Wilks said last week.
Back in October, Tepper said Wilks would have to do an “incredible job” to be considered for the full-time job. Making the playoffs (even with a below .500 record) should qualify as incredible, but only Tepper knows.
If Wilks does not reach the playoffs then it’s almost certain Carolina will open a national search eyeing a high-profile candidate capable of designing an offense or crafting a hellacious defense. The list of potential hires is vast.
QB of the future: It’s a near certainty Carolina will select a first-round quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft. The team could finish with a top-three pick if the losses pile up again. Considering Carolina acquired three picks when it traded Christian McCaffrey, the team could package a few selections and move up for a quarterback, too.
Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), and Will Levis (Kentucky) highlight a promising rookie quarterback class. In theory, the Panthers are a quarterback away from unlocking the full potential of its offensive line, downhill run game, and play-action passing attack.
Carolina could probe for a disgruntled veteran quarterback like it did each offseason under former head coach Matt Rhule. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers appears unhappy with his team’s 3-6 record. He makes $50 million per year and would be a massive cap hit, but Green Bay trading him is not impossible, as Overthecap.com recently detailed.
But general manager Scott Fitterer has said he believes drafting and developing a quarterback is the most efficient and effective way to build a team. However, will that decision be Fitterer’s to make?
General manager and future draft capital: Given the opportunity during Wilks’ introductory press conference, Tepper did not commit to Fitterer long-term, but there is reason to believe Fitterer will remain in 2023.
Along with other key members of the organization, Fitterer is already gathering intel on potential head coaching candidates. He is expected to be a part of the offseason decision-making process, per a league source.
That makes sense for Carolina. Fitterer was hired in January 2021. It took a calendar year for him to reshape the scouting department in his vision.
Tepper would be wise to model the Panthers’ front office after how the New York Jets handled GM Joe Douglas. In 2019, the Jets first hired head coach Adam Gase in June. Five months later Douglas was named GM. The team underperformed under Gase for two seasons before he was fired. But New York retained Douglas. He helped select current head coach Robert Saleh, and gifted him a fruitful roster filled with up-and-coming young stars, all of whom Douglas drafted.
Carolina has 14 picks over the next two seasons. Ten of those selections are in the fourth round or better. Seven could be in the first 100 selections, including five picks in the first two rounds.
2023 outlook: Plugging in a new head coach and quarterback could change everything in Carolina. The team should be ready to compete for a division title next season with lofty expectations for 2024 and beyond.
In Arthur Smith the Falcons trust
Head coach forecast: The Falcons have their head coach of the future. Not only is Arthur Smith already the longest-tenured NFC South coach, but he’s also done more with less in consecutive seasons.
Atlanta should not be vying for a playoff spot. Marcus Mariota is a career backup with whom Smith is familiar because the duo was together for five years in Tennessee. He limits the offense to a run-first scheme dependent on play action. The Falcons use play action on more than 47% of their passing attempts according to Pro Football Focus, the highest in the league.
The Falcons have the cheapest defense in football. No team has spent less on its defense.
These are not your older siblings’ Falcons. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and the relics of the 28-3 Super Bowl debacle are long gone. The team has been and will continue to be rebuilt in Smith’s vision.
QB of the future: The Falcons drafted rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder 20 picks ahead of Panthers quarterback Matt Corral. Ridder has yet to play this season. He could be the future, but Atlanta will consider all options. The Falcons have all of their own draft picks in Rounds 1 through 4 during the next two seasons.
General manager and future draft capital: The Falcons have a healthy coop of draft picks that will fund their future. The team named Terry Fontenot its general manager in January.
2023 outlook: The Falcons have a head start on the rest of the NFC South thanks to having Smith in place. He has already proven to be a wise strategist and a calculated team builder.
After this season, what are the Bucs?
Head coach forecast: Beyond this season, the Buccaneers are soaking in uncertainty. Tom Brady likely is not playing in Tampa Bay next season. He’ll either retire or join a Super-Bowl ready roster.
Todd Bowles took over for Bruce Arians in March, but Arians remains in the building, and sometimes on the sidelines of games. The Bowles-Arians transition hasn’t been smooth.
If Tampa Bay does not reach the playoffs, perhaps the team enters a rebuild, starting with a new head coach.
QB of the future: If Brady leaves, the Buccaneers will be in the offseason quarterback market. The team rosters second-year quarterback Kyle Trask. He was a second-round selection in 2021.
General manager and future draft capital: Like the Falcons, the Buccaneers are prepared for a quick rebuild. The team owns its own first, second, third and fifth-round picks in the upcoming draft and every 2024 selection.
2023 outlook: Without Brady, the Buccaneers will have to remake its offense to fit its new quarterback. A lot of that responsibility will fall on offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich.
The Saints have neither a quarterback nor first-round pick
Head coach forecast: The Saints are a mess. Sean Payton retired and left his former team in NFL purgatory. Current coach Dennis Allen has a 9-31 head coaching record.
QB of the future: New Orleans rosters Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, none of whom have proven capable of being full-time starters.
Ideally, New Orleans would draft a quarterback soon, but the team has limited draft capital.
General manager and future draft capital: For years, the Saints compromised its salary cap and mortgaged its future draft capital to maximize its Super Bowl window.
During the past 10 years, the Saints reached the playoffs six times but only reached the NFC Championship once.
New Orleans only has four draft picks in the first three rounds over the next two years. The team does not have its 2023 first-round pick or its 2024 second-round pick.
2023 outlook: The Saints likely will not contend for the division next season and instead focus on completely rebuilding.
This story was originally published November 11, 2022 at 2:23 PM.
