Support to retain Steve Wilks is growing as Panthers head to Baltimore to face Ravens
Steve Wilks is making the most of his opportunity as interim head coach of the Carolina Panthers.
Five games through his 12-contest tryout, Wilks has impressed Panthers leadership enough that he is expected to be seriously considered for the full-time job after the season, according to multiple sources with direct knowledge of the situation.
The Panthers (3-7) are 2-3 under Wilks, with both wins coming against the NFC South. Behind a punishing offensive line, the team reestablished its run-first identity. Carolina is averaging 159.5 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks. Most importantly, morale in the building is up.
There is a sense the Panthers are already laying the foundation for next season with Wilks rather than enduring a lame-duck interim. If Wilks is not chosen as Carolina’s next coach it is possible the team would prioritize keeping him on staff, per multiple league sources.
Forecasting what an NFL owner will do when it’s time to name a head coach is difficult, as Colts owner Jim Irsay proved last week by naming Jeff Saturday the team’s interim head coach.
But Panthers owner David Tepper is expected to make a traditional hire. Wilks checks a lot of the head-coaching boxes Tepper seeks. He’s a firm leader who commands the team like a CEO. According to a league source, Wilks is a strong communicator internally with players, coaches and the front office, and he handles the media well.
A lot can change before January, but Wilks’ chances of remaining the Panthers’ head coach beyond this season have improved since he accepted the position five weeks ago.
Winning games and remaining in the playoff race helps Wilks’ long-term chances. The team has an opportunity to prove Wilks right on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens. A win would also be Carolina’s first road victory and its first non-NFC South win.
The Panthers opened as 13-point underdogs at Baltimore. The Ravens (6-3) are coming off a bye and have Super Bowl aspirations. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens have a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl while Carolina has just a 3% chance to make the playoffs.
Here is how Wilks and the Panthers can shock the league and upset Baltimore.
Baker Mayfield vs. one-on-one coverage
The Panthers are turning back to Baker Mayfield at quarterback after PJ Walker suffered a high ankle sprain against Atlanta. Like Mayfield, Walker started five consecutive games before losing his starting job due to injury.
The offensive game plan will not change much going from Walker to Mayfield. Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo wants to establish the run by leaning on running back D’Onta Foreman. His 31 carries were second-most in the league last week behind only the New York Giants’ Saquon Barkley. Foreman has rushed for 118 yards or more in three of his past four starts.
But the Ravens’ front seven defenders are stingy. Since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith via trade, the Ravens are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (92). Over the past three weeks, no team has gained more than 65 rushing yards against the Ravens defense.
Expect the Panthers to stick to their run-first game plan, but Mayfield will have to make some explosive throws for Carolina to win. Watch for Carolina to try Ravens cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters early on. Mayfield is familiar with both cornerbacks from his time with the Cleveland Browns. His 3-5 career record versus the Ravens contains flashes of big-time throws.
Humphrey and Peters are aggressive, hand-fighting defensive backs who prefer tight man-to-man coverage. The Panthers could benefit from trying Peters on an early double-move. As Baltimore stacks the box to stop Foreman, second-year wide receiver Terrace Marshall should have one-on-one opportunities on the outside versus either defender.
Mayfield must establish he is a threat to throw the football.
Containing Lamar Jackson
The Ravens offense runs through Lamar Jackson.
His supporting cast is getting healthier following the bye week. Tight end Mark Andrews is expected back after missing multiple weeks with a shoulder injury. He’s the team’s leading receiver and will be a matchup problem for the Panthers’ depleted secondary.
Carolina listed nickel cornerback Myles Hartsfield (ankle) as doubtful for Sunday. Safety Juston Burris is out with a concussion and cornerback Donte Jackson was put on injured reserve after rupturing his Achilles against Atlanta.
The team will likely start C.J. Henderson and Keith Taylor Jr. on the outside and put Jaycee Horn in the slot. Backup cornerbacks Tae Hayes and T.J. Carrie could also see increased playing time.
Safety Jeremy Chinn should play. He should be used near the line of scrimmage to track Jackson and attack the Ravens’ rush lanes.
Carolina is limited at defensive tackle. Matt Ioannidis is out with a calf injury. Marquan McCall and Daviyon Nixon will see increased playing time and be asked to clog interior running lanes.
Containing Jackson will take sound edge and gap integrity from Panthers’ edge pass rushers Brian Burns, Marquis Haynes, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Frankie Luvu. It’s vital Carolina does not rush too far upfield when pressuring Jackson. He’ll exploit rushing lanes between the guards and tackles if they do.
Find an extra possession
Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars opened their road game against the Chiefs with an onside kick.
The surprise worked. The Jaguars recovered the kick and gained an extra possession against an opponent they were not expected to beat. Jacksonville squandered the possession, gaining just 15 yards on five plays before punting and eventually lost 27-17.
But the concept was clear. It’s advantageous for road underdogs to find a way to gain an extra possession or two.
The Panthers have not attempted an onside kick yet this season. Perhaps special teams coordinator Chris Tabor tries one this week. There are other ways to steal possessions.
Carolina could try a fake punt, which Tabor has called once this season. Wilks could elect to be more aggressive on fourth down this week, as well.
Either way, the Panthers must win the time of possession against Baltimore. Surprise special teams decisions and aggressive fourth-down playcalling can help Carolina keep the ball.
