Week 14 preview: Why Panthers Jaycee Horn faces biggest challenge yet against Seahawks
Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn was drafted for games like this.
On Sunday, Carolina (4-8) faces the Seattle Seahawks (7-5) in a game that carries NFC playoff implications.
Seattle receiver DK Metcalf will be the most physically gifted player on Lumen Field when the game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. When defensive coordinator Al Holcomb calls man coverage, it’ll be on Horn to neutralize Metcalf and prove he can handle the Pro Bowler one-on-one.
“I did spend a little more time showing (the defensive backs) different cut-ups of Metcalf and (Tyler) Lockett and some of the things that they do,” interim head coach Steve Wilks said. “It was my opportunity to get back in the DB room and share my insight.”
Horn is having a breakout second season after the Panthers drafted him No. 8 in the 2021 draft. According to Pro Football Focus, Horn has allowed the fewest yards (138) and first-down catches (four) among cornerbacks who have played at least 200 snaps. His 38.3 passer rating allowed is a league-low, as well.
Metcalf is a force, too. He stands 6 feet, 4 inches and weighs 235 pounds. He is capable of turning any reception into a long touchdown. His 798 yards are the 17th most in the league. Since Week 10, Metcalf is averaging eight catches and 96 yards per game.
It’ll be intriguing how often the Panthers ask Horn to cover Metcalf. Through 12 games, Horn has played outside on 567 of his 697 snaps (81%). He is effective in the slot, but the Panthers are deliberately deploying him outside more consistently.
It’s unlikely Horn mirrors Metcalf all game. Horn only plays man coverage about 19% of the time according to Pro Football Focus. But Wilks and Holcomb will make sure Horn is the nearest defender to Metcalf on third downs and other critical situations.
The Seahawks will likely be without breakout rookie running back Kenneth Walker III. He injured his ankle last week against the Rams and has not practiced this week. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Walker will be a game-time decision.
Without Walker — whose 649 yards are the second-most of any rookie in the NFL this season — Seattle will turn to Metcalf, quarterback Geno Smith and No. 2 receiver Lockett.
Cornerback C.J. Henderson should matchup with Lockett when Horn draws Metcalf. It’s pivotal that Henderson and Horn study how both receivers operate at the line of scrimmage. There are tendencies Metcalf shows before running a route that can sometimes signal whether he is going deep or not.
Metcalf and Lockett slightly readjusting their gloves or stance are subtle clues Horn and Henderson can use to predict what route combinations may follow.
To beat Carolina, Seattle will throw the ball. Smith is having a career year. His 72.7 completion percentage leads the NFL. The Seahawks’ offense ranks fifth in points per game (26.5), ninth in EPA (expected points added) per play and seventh in points per drive according to Football Outsiders. Since Week 10, he is first in yards per attempt (8.9) and second in passing yards (323).
While Horn and Henderson prioritize Metcalf and Lockett, cornerbacks Keith Taylor and T.J. Carrie and safeties Jeremy Chinn and Xavier Woods must be aware of slot receiver Marquise Goodwin. His 4.27 40-yard dash speed makes him a threat.
The Panthers go as D’Onta Foreman does
Carolina will need running back D’Onta Foreman to carry a heavy workload against the Seahawks’ 31st-ranked run defense. The Panthers are undefeated in regulation when Foreman gets at least 15 rushes and eclipses 100 rushing yards.
Seattle’s rush defense is ripe for a Foreman punishment. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards (4.6 yards per carry) and 11 rushing touchdowns.
Foreman ranks fifth in rushing yards per game among running backs since he became a starter in Week 7.
The team wants Foreman to rush at least 20 times on Sunday.
Seattle’s base defense tends to play two high safeties who start about 12 yards off the line of scrimmage. When Seahawks safeties Ryan Neal and Quandre Diggs play the run they can be undisciplined in their run fits.
The Panthers are punishing teams inside with the guard-center-guard combination of Brady Christensen, Bradley Bozeman and Austin Corbett. But Carolina could find some advantages on the perimeter by pulling either left tackle Ikem Ekwonu or right tackle Taylor Moton.
Expect a detailed and multiple-personnel rushing attack from Carolina.
Panthers cannot afford a turnover
Though there is a chance Sam Darnold recently got his swagger back, the reality of the Panthers’ quarterback situation has not changed.
Whether it’s Darnold, PJ Walker or former Panther Baker Mayfield, Carolina is starting quarterbacks it can win with, but not win because of.
Meaning to win, Carolina must run effectively, play great defense and not turn the ball over. Not only is Seattle one of the league’s most hostile road environments, but the Seahawks’ 21 defensive takeaways are second-most in the league.
An early turnover would give the 12th-man (Seahawks home fans) reason to get excited, thus creating momentum that would be difficult for Carolina to overcome.
Seattle outside linebacker Uchenna Nwosu has nine sacks, which is tied for third in the NFC. He also has three forced fumbles, which is second among all defenders behind teammate Coby Bryant.
Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen’s six interceptions lead the NFL. Whether it’s ball-hawking or punching out footballs, the Seahawks’ defense is the ultimate opportunist.
Can DJ Moore have another explosive game?
Darnold brought the best out of receiver DJ Moore two weeks ago against the Broncos’ third-ranked defense. Moore cooked future All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain for 103 yards on four catches.
This week Moore faces another Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback in Woolen.
Woolen is having an all-time rookie season. No first-year cornerback has ever had six interceptions in Seahawks’ history. His 12 passes defended is tied for fourth among cornerbacks. Among cornerbacks with at least 150 coverage snaps, he ranks third in passer rating allowed (52.8), according to Next Gen Stats.
Woolen likely will not mirror Moore, but Seattle will try to scheme the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver out of the game.
This story was originally published December 10, 2022 at 2:48 PM.
