Panthers still control their playoff destiny: Keys to winning the NFC South
Despite the Panthers, Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers competing like they’d rather vacation in January than play postseason football, eventually, someone has to win the NFC South and host a home playoff game.
After being run over by Pittsburgh on Sunday, Carolina (5-9) still somehow controls its playoff destiny. Simply put: Win the next three games and the Panthers advance. A look at how Carolina can still make the most of the remainder of its season.
How to win the next three games
Wins against the Lions, Bucs and Saints will put the Panthers in the playoffs for the first time since David Tepper bought the team.
To accomplish this unlikely feat (the Panthers have a 22% chance to make the playoffs according to fivethiryeight), Carolina cannot lose the battle at the line of scrimmage again.
When teams like the Steelers (or Bengals five weeks ago) push the Panthers around, they have little chance of winning. That’s because the team only rosters quarterbacks they can win with rather than win because of. As is life for most NFL teams. There are only so many Patrick Mahomeses and Josh Allens available.
But that means winning at the line of scrimmage is nonnegotiable. Carolina cannot drop back 40 times and pepper D.J. Moore, Terrace Marshall and Laviska Shenault with targets.
This version of the Panthers has one formula to victory. Run the ball, get off the field on third down and be excellent in the kicking game.
The Steelers knew that and flipped the script.
“We wanted our run game to start faster,” Pittsburgh quarterback Mitch Trubisky said. “We wanted to start the game coming out front. Scoring the first drive that we had the football set the tone the rest of the game. ... We wanted to stay ahead the whole game. The plan was executed.”
More creative third-down defense
Panthers No. 2 cornerback C.J. Henderson played just four snaps on Sunday before injuring his ankle. He did not return and his absence exposed the Panthers’ depleted secondary. Already without Donte Jackson who tore his Achilles in Week 10, defensive coordinator Al Holcomb stuck to a third-down game script that backup cornerback Keith Taylor could not handle.
The Steelers converted a season-best 75% of their third-down tries, kicked just one field goal and punted three times.
Carolina prefers playing man-to-man defense on critical downs. In theory, sticky coverage results in receivers needing more time to open. Thus quarterbacks hold on to the ball longer, creating opportunities for Brian Burns and the pass rush to play make.
That plan worked in Seattle when Jaycee Horn and Henderson played 100% of their defensive snaps. Taylor played just four snaps last week compared to 65 snaps (96%) versus Pittsburgh. The Steelers knew where Taylor was on critical downs.
Early in the second quarter, the Steelers faced third-and-4 from midfield. Pittsburgh rookie receiver George Pickens made a 38-yard completion look routine versus Taylor in press-man coverage.
That was just the start of Taylor’s self-proclaimed “worst game of his life.”
Steelers Pro Bowler receiver Diontae Johnson had a season-best day against Taylor. He had 98 yards, was targeted 10 times, and made 10 catches, seven of which resulted in first downs, including five on third down.
“We studied a lot on third down this week,” Trubisky said. “We got our matchups. I was going to Dionate (Johnson.) He was winning.”
Holcomb trusted his defense to execute against superior talent. When faced with a talent deficiency, it’s on the scheme to elevate inferior talent.
The Panthers’ defense has played with diversity and unpredictability in wins against Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Denver. It’s important that Holcomb refine his critical-down call sheet ahead of facing Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
Help out the tackles in pass protection
Pittsburgh knew holding a lead would give its violent and expensive pass rush an advantage.
“(Run defense) allows us to be one dimensional and pin your ears back,” Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt said. “Especially when our offense was moving the ball like they were today.”
Pittsburgh sacked quarterback Sam Darnold five times and hit him eight times. The Steelers made six tackles for losses and recorded 16 quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. Darnold only dropped back to pass 21 times.
On Monday, Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks said Darnold would continue as the starting quarterback.
Few quarterbacks can function under constant fire. With a matchup against No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson up next, Carolina must have a more sound pass protection in place to deal with talented edge rushers.
Ideally, tackles Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton would be able to hold their own but that was not the case Sunday. Each allowed a sack while Ekwonu allowed three pressures to Moton’s one.
As Wilks has said before, the Panthers need their best players to routinely execute like stars.
