How the Panthers’ offense is breaking records and rushing toward a division title
It’s hard to believe the Panthers are two victories away from winning the NFC South.
Even more shocking is the team’s Week 1 head coach, leading passer and top rusher now live in Nebraska, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, respectively.
Here’s another mind-bender. The Panthers’ all-time single-game rushing and total yardage performances now belong to the one-two punch of D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Not Smash and Dash (the nickname for the Carolina running back duo of Jonathan Stewart and Deangelo Williams). Quarterbacking the most explosive game in team history wasn’t the legs of Cam Newton or the arm of Jake Delhomme. Instead, red-bearded Sam Darnold accumulated 269 of the Panthers’ franchise record 570 yards on Saturday against the Lions.
Carolina has won four of its past six games and can gain sole possession of its division by winning Sunday in Tampa Bay. How are Panthers offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo and interim head coach Steve Wilks getting these results?
Let’s explore what makes the Panthers’ offense difficult to defend as Carolina prepares for a rematch against the Buccaneers with first place in the NFC South on the line.
Two-headed monster
Foreman and Hubbard are making a case as the best one-two-punch running back combo in the NFL. Since Week 7, only the Titans Derrick Henry (1,021 yards) and Dontrell Hilliard (123 yards) and the Cowboys’ Tony Pollard (696 yards) and Ezekiel Elliot (443 yards) have more combined yards than Foreman (774) and Hubbard (351).
The duo’s complementary styles were on full display against the Lions. Take the Panthers’ first 10 rushing plays from Saturday, which spanned from the first snap to the 12:44 mark of the second quarter. During that span, Carolina gained 156 rushing yards on 10 carries. Hubbard accounted for 80 yards on four rushes. Foreman amassed 70 yards with four carries. Rookie Raheem Blackshear added two rushes for 5 yards and a touchdown.
In just 10 plays, Carolina’s offense showcased all of its abilities. Prior to Week 16, the Lions had not allowed a player to gain more than 70 rushing yards since Week 8. Hubbard matched that on the game’s first series. That’s a credit to him, Foreman and, of course, the offensive line.
Smash and Dash 2.0 — or whatever nickname eventually sticks to Foreman-Hubbard — are in line for another explosive performance against Tampa Bay. According to Football Outsiders, the Buccaneers’ rushing defense is ranked 10th in the league. In Week 7, however, the Panthers gashed Todd Bowles’ defense for 173 rushing yards on 37 carries (6.4) average. Carolina won that game 21-3.
Last week Tampa Bay survived an overtime game against the Cardinals via some late-game Tom Brady heroics. But Arizona effectively ran the ball all game, rushing for 121 yards. Running back James Conner gained 120 total yards, 79 of which came on the ground.
The Cardinals used zone runs to exploit the Buccaneers’ defense, just as Carolina did 10 weeks ago against Tampa Bay at Bank of America Stadium. Expect a similar recipe on Sunday.
Diversity of running game
Carolina is using a diverse set of running plays to win football games. Against Seattle, a heavy amount of shotgun-counter runs punished the Seahawks. The Lions did not have an answer for Carolina’s inside zone and trap plays last week. In Week 7, outside and wide zone runs allowed Carolina to hit the edge or cut back against Tampa Bay.
Such mastery of the running game is a testament to offensive line coach James Campen and the rest of the Panthers’ coaches. Carolina clearly has the talent to win up front. General manager Scott Fitterer made sure of that by signing Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman in the offseason before drafting left tackle Ikem Ekwonu. But without a sound scheme — which must be taught, drilled and perfected — a respected run game won’t materialize. It takes talent plus expert educators to formulate a holistic ground attack.
“James Campen does a great job. Jeff Nixon (running backs coach) does a great job. Joe Dailey with receivers does a great job,” McAdoo said. “It’s all-hands-on-deck approach. We try to put the players in a position to be successful.”
Playing the same opponent twice brings natural problems that require adjustments. After multiple teams have punished the Buccaneers’ defensive tackles with inside zone runs, there is a chance Tampa Bay shows Carolina something new.
“We have to be ready for anything,” tackle Taylor Moton said. “It’s the NFL. Just because it’s on tape and working, they could change it up.”
Darnold letting it rip
Darnold is beating defenses on the ground and through the air. He isn’t Jalen Hurts, but he’s executing McAdoo’s plan.
Since Week 12, Darnold leads the NFL in yards per attempt with 8.6. His completion percentage above expectation of 3.7% — a measurement of a quarterback’s performance relative to the difficulty of their throws — is third-best, according to Next Gen Stats.
It’s difficult to find a stat that doesn’t support Darnold. His 104.3 passer rating since Week 12 ranks fifth among qualified passers. Darnold also has posted a 100-plus quarterback rating in three of his past four games. And, he has yet to commit a turnover this season.
This is the version of Darnold the team thought it was trading for last season. In the quarterback’s defense, a remodeled offensive line is protecting him this year. The Lions, for instance, did not record a hit on Darnold while he was in the pocket.
Darnold’s third-quarter, 47-yard completion to DJ Moore embodies the quarterback’s confidence. Facing a third-and-14, the Lions sent a Cover 0 blitz (eight rushers, three in coverage) at Darnold. Carolina mass protected, but the Lions had one more defender than Carolina could block. Still, Darnold dropped back, navigated the pocket and dropped a dime on Moore for the long completion. Moore scored on the next play via a 5-yard bubble screen from Darnold.
Rather than throw a short checkdown or a higher percentage intermediate throw, Darnold stayed on script and went for the kill shot. It illustrated confident play by a quarterback who is playing the best football of his career.
This story was originally published December 30, 2022 at 5:15 AM.
