Mailbag: Will the Panthers trade for the No. 1 pick or sign free-agent QB Derek Carr?
With the Panthers’ coaching staff and front office at the NFL Combine, Carolina fans have questions about new head coach Frank Reich and general manager Scott Fitterer.
That’s why The Observer likes to regularly open up its mailbag to answer reader questions during a very busy offseason.
Here are some of the standout questions from our most recent batch of reader inquiries:
Daniel L. asks: It seems likely they will trade up. If you were a betting man, what spot do you think they would trade up to? All the way to No. 1? Or more like No. 3 with Arizona or No. 5 with Seattle?
Ellis Williams: During his scouting combine press conference, Fitterer said if the Panthers identify a rookie quarterback they prefer then they will “go get him.” But finding the line between patience and over-aggressiveness is important.
The Panthers currently hold pick No. 9. The quarterback-needy teams in front of them are Atlanta (No. 8), Las Vegas (No. 7), Detroit (No. 6), Seattle (No. 5) and Indianapolis (No. 4). That’s a lot of unknown for Fitterer, Reich and owner David Tepper to forecast.
There are reports that Atlanta is comfortable starting Desmond Ridder. Lions quarterback Jared Goff has similar support, but the team has said it’s interested in adding a developmental No. 2 QB behind Goff. The Raiders don’t have a QB under contract. Seattle started Geno Smith this season and is having “positive” talks about bringing him back, but the Seahawks are interested in a rookie quarterback. And the Colts, like the Texans (No. 2), most certainly will draft a first-round signal-caller.
All that uncertainty likely makes trading up to No. 5 or No. 3 too risky. Trading for the No. 1 pick is the only way to guarantee “your guy” will be there. And if that quarterback is as good as your scouting department, coaching staff and owner believe then who cares about the price tag, right?
Carolina could move up eight spots via a lot several different trade packages. For example, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah held a conference call for the media on last Friday and said it would cost Carolina the No. 9 pick, its 2024 first-round pick, its 2025 first-round pick and a 2023 second-rounder. The Panthers also have two second-round picks, two third-round picks and two-fourth-round picks in this upcoming draft. Offering a combination of those selections could save Carolina its 2025 first-rounder.
Regardless, Carolina has the draft ammunition to move up to No. 1 and that is the only way to ensure either Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis or Anthony Richardson would be a Panther.
Cyrus C. asks: If Carolina does trade up, do you think it gets done before the start of free agency?
EW: This is the No. 1 story line to watch before the draft.
In 2016, the Rams traded up from No. 15 to No. 1 (and later selected Jared Goff) on April 15. Two years ago, the 49ers traded for No. 3 on March 26 and a month later selected Trey Lance. Both trades were made after free agency. The new league year starts on March 15. That is when free agents can sign with their new teams.
Perhaps it would behoove the Panthers to either sign Derek Carr or trade for the No. 1 overall pick before free agency begins. Carolina bypassing Derek Carr and instead signing a veteran like Jacoby Brissett or Andy Dalton before trading up would telegraph its draft plans.
By either signing Carr or trading with the Bears before mid-March, the Panthers would make clear their terms of engagement with potential free agents. Then its staff and scouting department could prepare for April’s draft with a definitive plan.
@mal1kks asks: What is the percent chance the Panthers don’t go QB in the first round
EW: All of this depends on Carr.
If the Panthers do not sign the former Raiders quarterback, they will almost certainly target a first-round quarterback.
After hearing what Fitterer said at the combine, I think there is a better than 51% chance that the Panthers draft a Day 1 quarterback. Remember, Fitterer spent more than a decade in Seattle where he helped find and develop Russell Wilson. Wilson’s rookie contract helped the Seahawks build a roster that went to back-to-back Super Bowls.
At his combine presser, Reich sounded more interested in signing a veteran to ensure quarterback stability. A realistic compromise could be targeting a first-round quarterback while also signing Brissett, Dalton or even Sam Darnold.
@QSlaytm asks: Is there any hint of what you think the Panthers’ draft board looks like? Do they have Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud as QB1?
EW: In November, The Observer reported Tepper wants to build with a quarterback on a rookie contract and has had eyes for Kentucky’s Will Levis. Beyond that, the Panthers will play the next eight weeks close to the vest. Largely because coaches do not have time until the period between the combine and pro days to closely evaluate prospects.
Like the 31 other teams, Carolina starts setting its draft board after the combine and through its pro-day visits. It’s a fluid process that can change up until draft night.
Before the college football season ended, Young was considered the No. 1 QB prospect throughout the NFL. But that could change. What’s most important is that the Panthers accurately identify who the No. 1 quarterback is and then draft him. That’s what the hours of meetings, workouts and film study are for.
Draft Twitter only has so much information available. NFL teams have unlimited resources to get this right. That’s why making a mistake often costs regimes their jobs.
@Samiam3187 asks: Does size matter to this staff? At QB, WR, DB, etc. What are the physical traits they look for?
EW: Height, weight and speed will always matter in the NFL. However, an astute team build precisely targets size as necessary in each position room.
For example, wide receiver rooms should be built like basketball teams. Fives (centers or power forwards) are large catch-radius players who are considered ball-winners. Terrace Marshall plays that role for Carolina. The best ball-winners are the Bengals’ Tee Higgins and the Chargers’ Mike Williams. The best receivers are small forwards or shooting guards, capable of doing everything extraordinarily well. Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase and A.J. Brown fit this mold.
Then point-guard receivers are quick-twitch slot players who win with agility and acceleration. There are exceptions, like Dolphins star Tyreek Hill.
But Carolina knows it needs to add another receiver to complement DJ Moore and Marshall. Whether that’s a slot or an outside guy is up for the team to identify.
Building a cornerback room is similar. The team already has size and length with Jaycee Horn and C.J. Henderson but are in desperate need of a nickel corner who is capable of defending slot receivers. Quickness matters there more than size.
As for quarterback, Reich never started a quarterback under 6-foot-4 with the Colts.
@unprocast asks: What is the biggest red flag that a good college QB will NOT succeed in the NFL?
EW: This is a complicated question. More than anything, fully understanding who a rookie quarterback is as a person will best help teams avoid crucial red flags.
There is a difference between how Jets quarterback Zach Wilson and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts internalize and then handle adversity. Teams must fully understand the character of the quarterback they are drafting in the first round.
Hurts and Josh Allen have proven throwing mechanics can be improved. But finding out if the young man is willing to dedicate his life to being an NFL quarterback must be known before calling his name on Day 1.
Mike Lipp asks: How does this part of the off-season work for players currently on the roster? Do they have playbooks yet? Do they spend time with position coaches while at the facility?
The simple answer to this is no. The NFLPA does not allow players to “talk football” with coaches (or have playbooks) until OTAs begin in May. For example, players under contract have access to the facility for treatment and can use the locker room but they can not meet with coaches to discuss football strategy.
This story was originally published March 3, 2023 at 6:00 AM.
