Panthers mailbag: Could a first-round draft trade-up take place before free agency?
The Carolina Panthers’ offseason is about to kick into high gear.
With free agency a week away, the Panthers will look to fill some holes on the open market before turning their attention to the NFL Draft. The Panthers are eager to land a new franchise quarterback, and the draft appears to be their best chance to fix a longstanding problem.
Naturally, Panthers fans have questions about the future of their favorite franchise, so The Observer has opened up its mailbag to provide clarity on some major topics.
Here are some of the standout questions from this week’s mailbag:
Optimistic Panthers Fan on Twitter asks: Do you think a trade up could take place before free agency?
Mike Kaye: Free agency begins, in earnest, on March 15 at 4 p.m. There isn’t a ton of time for a deal to get done, but it’s certainly possible. Teams have begun to realize that moving within the top 10 ahead of the draft is advantageous for several reasons, including free-agent strategy, draft planning and overall value consideration.
The Chicago Bears, who own the No. 1 overall pick, are likely to want to know what their outlook is before free agency. Sure, they are probably aware that trading out of the top pick is likely, but they also don’t have finality on where they could land. Trading down from No. 1 to No. 2 or No. 4 is much different than trading down to No. 9.
The Panthers should be aggressive and get ahead of the draft, but it takes two teams to trade, so the ball is really in the Bears’ court at this point. As I’ve said multiple times, getting ahead of free agency with a trade up into the top three makes a lot of sense for both the buyer and the seller, but Bears GM Ryan Poles ultimately holds the cards.
TFB on Twitter asks: What do you think is more likely to happen? Trade to 1 and get their guy, or stay at 9 and see how the board falls with these 4 QBs?
MK: Before we get started, the top four quarterbacks that TFB is referring to are: Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson.
This might seem like a cop out answer, but generally, I expect the Panthers to pick ahead of their current selection. If they want a quarterback, they need to be aggressive and assertive with their actions. According to a league source, the Panthers aren’t expected to pursue Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (who is on the non-exclusive franchise tag), which should force their attention to the draft trade market.
However, as stated in the previous answer, the Bears trading down from No. 1 to No. 9 might not be an ideal slide for Chicago. The Bears could get offers from the Texans (No. 2), Colts (No. 4) and Raiders (No. 7) to jump up. While the Bears would get more of a return for trading back with the Panthers, they might not be inclined to miss out on a top-tier defender with a massive bounce back.
To me, trading up to No. 3 makes a ton of sense. The Panthers’ brass likes multiple members of the consensus top-four quarterbacks, and they could nab one of them with the third overall pick. While some will balk at the idea of allowing the first two teams to decide the Panthers’ next quarterback, the reality of the situation is that Chicago has a choice in this matter and may not want to trade back so far. However, a deal with the rebuilding Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 appears to be a primary pressure point for the Panthers to pounce.
Panthers on Tap asks: Will the Panthers be more likely to target a TE in free agency or the draft?
MK: That’s a great question, as both classes are stacked.
Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz is expected to be the top tight end on the free agent market, and he might price himself out of the Panthers’ range early on in the process. But, there are plenty of mid-level options to consider in the veteran market at this point, as well.
With the Panthers likely to select a rookie quarterback in the first round, signing a veteran tight end who can act as a safety blanket seems logical. Tennessee Titans tight end Austin Hooper, 28, would make a lot sense on a three-year deal. Hooper is big and strong and can catch like a possession receiver. Over the past three seasons, Hooper has caught 125 passes for 1,274 yards and 9 touchdowns. He could be in for an Ian Thomas-like deal, which would be palatable under the Panthers’ current cap situation.
Hayden Hurst, 30, is likely to be in consideration. While he’s a bit older, he entered the league in his mid-20s and is coming off a strong year in Cincinnati. The well-traveled former first-round pick has excellent yards-after-catch ability and went to school at nearby University of South Carolina. While Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki could be of interest to the Panthers, he is more of an over-sized slot receiver and red-zone target than a bulk-catching tight end. His game might not completely fit into the way head coach Frank Reich views the position.
The draft littered with tight end talent, which could force the Panthers to double dip at the position. While Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave might go as high as the first round, there are some mid-round targets that the Panthers should explore to upgrade their position room. Purdue’s Payne Durham and Clemson’s Davis Allen would be nice complementary pieces to Thomas and any of the veteran free-agent tight ends listed above.
Jeff on Twitter asks: Will the Panthers add a safety in free agency? John Johnson a possibility? He has lots of connections now on the Carolina staff. Other possible names?
MK: On paper, free safety, in particular, seems like a massive hole in the Panthers’ secondary. While Xavier Woods did a lot of nice things at strong safety last year, the Panthers need a guy who can serve as a center fielder, and Jeremy Chinn isn’t that guy.
With Chinn likely to move to linebacker or more of a “rover” role on defense, the Panthers should look to sign a veteran free safety with proven ability.
Johnson, as you mentioned, is reportedly set to be cut by the Cleveland Browns ahead of free agency. Johnson is a rangy free safety, who, as you mentioned, has experience with defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and cornerbacks coach Jonathan Cooley.
Johnson is likely to look to cash in again with a cap-flush team or go to a contender that is a few pieces away. The Panthers offer neither of those selling points. However, if there is a former Rams player worth watching at free safety, Nick Scott would make a lot of sense.
Scott is coming off a career-year after becoming a full-time starting free safety for the Rams last season. He can be used in the slot and cover wide receivers and tight ends. He also has experience with Evero and Cooley, as he won a Super Bowl with the pair following the 2021 season. Scott is 27 and could be looked at as an ascending player who can be signed to a team-friendly long-term pact.
If the Panthers wanted to spend a little bit more, fellow former Rams safety Taylor Rapp could make sense. He has significant starting experience (48 of 57 games) and can play both safety spots effectively. At 26, Rapp is still a young player, and he is worth a mid-level deal in the way of Woods or guard Austin Corbett.
If the Panthers wanted to look for a fresh face, and were willing to spend, Bengals safety Jessie Bates is the cream of the crop. The Panthers have some premium defenders in Jaycee Horn, Brian Burns and Derrick Brown, and Bates certainly fits in the same conversation with his talent and production. Bates is looking to reset the market at safety, so it’ll be up to how much the Panthers want to spend to determine their legitimate interest.
This story was originally published March 9, 2023 at 6:00 AM.
