Know your opponent: Can Carolina Panthers hurt playoff chances for Green Bay Packers?
Carolina Panthers star pass rusher Brian Burns offered a fan-favorite response when asked what made the win over the Atlanta Falcons special on Sunday night.
“Obviously we’re not in it to clinch anything,” Burns said after his team’s 9-7 win, cracking a smile, “but it feels good to mess up their Christmas.”
Can the Panthers do the same thing again?
The Panthers, 2-12 on the year and 1-2 under interim head coach Chris Tabor, take on the playoff-hungry Green Bay Packers at 1 p.m. on Christmas Eve in Bank of America Stadium. The Packers are 6-8, which means they’re third in the NFC North but just one game back from a wildcard spot, one of which is held by NFC North foe Vikings (7-7) if the season ended today.
Green Bay opened as 4.5-point favorites, per FanDuel Sportsbook, with the game’s over/under set at 36.5.
This will be the first time since 2017 the Panthers will host Green Bay. The two teams also faced off in 2019 and 2020 — both Panthers losses on the snowy tundra at Lambeau Field.
Here’s a look at the Packers team the Panthers will take on this weekend.
Is Jordan Love ‘the guy’ for Green Bay? He and Bryce Young faced with similar question
Jordan Love isn’t a rookie. Nor has he played like one much in 2023.
But he shares this with Carolina Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young: Expectations for his future coming into the season were quite high — and in many ways they still are.
The Packers’ 2020 first-round draft pick out of Utah State is in the home stretch of his first season as the starter ever since legendary quarterback Aaron Rodgers left for the New York Jets this offseason. Love has had rookie moments but overall has shown flashes of potential of who he could be. His stats on the season: 3,368 passing yards (10th in the NFL), 25 passing touchdowns (fifth) and 57.8 quarterback rating (13th).
Love’s best game to date came on Thanksgiving against the Detroit Lions, when the 25-year-old quarterback put on his Brett Favre impression, slinging the ball all over the field for 268 yards and three touchdowns. That included a 53-yard bomb by the 6-foot-4, 219-pound signal-caller.
Like Young, Love has thrown a bunch of interceptions (11 on the year). But that’s about where the comparisons stop between the debut seasons of the competing quarterbacks.
Young, after all, has led a team that was the first in the NFL to be eliminated from playoff contention and saw his coach get fired midseason. Since then, the Panthers have embraced a run-first, run-a-lot identity — and it has worked the past few weeks, which included a game against the New Orleans Saints where the team earned over 200 yards rushing and another week that saw them grind out a gritty 9-7 win.
Love, meanwhile, started remarkably fast. He threw for three touchdowns in his team’s first two games. And since Week 10, he’s been asked to throw even more: He’s notched 40, 40, 32, 36, 39 and 39 attempts the last six contests. A lot of that has to do with the Packers’ injured backfield — AJ Dillon didn’t play Sunday with a broken thumb, and Aaron Jones made his return from a knee injury on Sunday but was on a snap count.
Love’s favorite targets this season include Jayden Reed (54 receptions for 592 yards), Romeo Doubs (52 receptions for 567 yards) and Dontayvion Wicks (31 receptions for 491 yards). The team’s most talented receiver and its deep threat, Christian Watson, has only notched 28 catches — but that’s because he’s battled injury all year. (Watson did not play against the Bucs this past weekend with a hamstring issue, and his status against the Panthers is still up in the air.)
Can the Panthers turn over the Packers?
It’s no secret: Giving the ball away has been a sore point of Young’s rookie year — nine interceptions and a few costly fumbles — and not being able to create takeaways has been the one blemish on the Panthers’ great defensive performance to date.
But the defense was able to do so against the Atlanta Falcons.
One of those came via an interception in the red zone late in the fourth quarter, which set up the 17-play, 90-yard drive that ended in Eddy Pineiro’s game-winning kick. The other was a fumble that effectively gave the Panthers three points.
Can the Panthers turn over the Packers?
Green Bay averages a clean 0.0 in turnover margin on the year. That means they’ve turned the ball over (1.1 times a game on average) as much as they’ve forced turnovers (1.1).
In fact, a look at a bunch of their other statistics offers a similar through-line: Their offense is about as productive as their defense.
They average about 21.4 points a game and allow 21.5. They gain 328.7 yards a game and allow 349.9. Same goes for their red zone touchdown percentage — 50% for, 51.02% as a defense — and touchdowns per game.
This doesn’t account for the Panthers’ shortcomings, of course. The Panthers are 24th in the league in turnover margin (-0.4), and that’s without mentioning the fact that they give up 3.9 sacks per game (29th).
Packers defense injured, was ‘gashed’ Sunday
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur was honest in his postgame press conference on Sunday, after his team’s 34-20 loss to Tampa Bay. He said the overall team was “outcoached” and “outplayed” — and added that the defense in particular got “gashed.”
“That’s what happened,” LaFleur added of Bucs’ quarterback Baker Mayfield’s breakout performance. “Twenty-two completions for 381 yards. That’s not good enough.”
The Packers, statistically, are good defending the pass and not so good defending the run. Through the air the team only allows 211.1 yards a game — 12th in the league — and has a 7.19% sack percentage. This strength might only get stronger this week if All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder) returns to action this week.
On the ground, meanwhile, the team is 30th in opponent rush yards per game (138.8) and 19th in opponent rushing touchdowns per game (0.9).
The Packers’ defense is led by linebacker Quay Walker, who leads the team in tackles with 98, and linebacker Rashan Gary, who has nine sacks on the year. Those two — and everyone else — will be tasked with stopping a Panthers team intent on spoiling an opponent’s playoff hopes for a second week in a row.
This story was originally published December 19, 2023 at 6:30 AM.
