Panthers mailbag: Can Carolina afford to keep Burns, Luvu and Brown all on big deals?
With the Panthers likely to put the final touches on their coaching staff this week, Carolina is close to turning its attention to the depth chart during the NFL business season.
Naturally, the fan base is curious about the future. That’s why the Panthers mailbag is back to answer fan questions.
Here are three standout questions from social media:
Panthers mailbag: Can Carolina keep the band together?
Chris asks: Is it possible to keep Brian Burns, Frankie Luvu, and Derrick Brown without decimating the Panthers’ salary cap?
Absolutely.
The Panthers are projected to have $129.5 million in cap space in 2025 and $254.5 million in space in 2026, according to Over The Cap. If the Panthers are able to reach long-term deals with all three players, they can largely borrow from 2025 and 2026 to shrink the damage done to this year’s salary cap.
The Panthers are set to have $28.6 million in cap space this season. They can do a lot of maneuvering with cuts and restructures during the offseason to open up even more space (more on this later). But remember, with contract extensions, they can also open up a significant amount of space as well.
The Panthers are likely to franchise tag Burns if they can’t reach a deal by the tag deadline. That tag would then put a huge weight on the Panthers’ salary cap, giving Burns more leverage in a negotiation, as Carolina would want to drop his contract number significantly with an extension to be able to spend in free agency.
If the Panthers were to reach a long-term deal with Burns, they could drop his base salary to a significantly smaller figure than the one-year franchise tag, and then spread out a massive signing bonus throughout the length of the contract. This strategy would give Burns a massive upfront pay bump while also protecting the cap.
Luvu is set to become a free agent, like Burns, in March. While Burns is the more likely tag option, Luvu won’t come cheap after back-to-back career seasons in Carolina. Luvu could sign a long-term deal, similar to the hypothetical one for Burns, where he’d be given a large roster bonus (spread throughout the length of the contract) with a pedestrian base salary for 2024. Again, this would be borrowing from future years with dead money, but Luvu and Burns wouldn’t be signed to long-term deals without long-term outlooks.
With Brown, signing him to an extension would immediately lead to substantial cap relief. Brown was the team’s best player last season and the first-time Pro Bowl selection earned him a bigger deal.
Brown is set to make $11.7 million in the final year of his rookie contract. That salary is fully guaranteed and also counts entirely against the cap without a roster bonus. Both sides should want to get a deal done for that very reason. According to Over The Cap, a contract extension for Brown could save as much as $8.43 million on the cap. That money could then be used to mitigate the damage of a Burns’ tagging entering free agency or be put toward a Luvu contract and then some.
The only potential pitfall for a front seven reunion would be the Panthers and Burns failing to reach an extension agreement within the first two waves of free agency. That outcome could lead to a potential trade or holdout, in theory.
Potential cap maneuvering could help offseason spending
Joshua asks: How much cap space can the Panthers create? Burns looking more like a tag and trade or tag and sign?
New executive vice president of football operations Brandt Tilis has plenty of wiggle room to maneuver this offseason. That outlook is largely due to the way that former VP of football administration Samir Suleiman structured contracts.
The Panthers have several notable deals that can be restructured to reduce cap hits in 2024. However, it’s important to be strategic with restructures to avoid future peril with dead money (a charge to the cap made from advance and guaranteed payments).
Restructuring a contract, in a general sense, kicks significant money into future years, creating bigger dead money penalties and significantly larger cap numbers in future seasons. Restructuring an older player or one coming off significant injury could lead to pitfalls down the road, even as the Panthers are expected to have treasure troves of space in 2025 and 2026.
A restructure typically involves teams dropping a player’s salary number significantly by the way of a bonus pay out. That bonus then can be spread throughout the remainder of the contract to create a smaller cap number for the player. This type of move is routine in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean it should be done without rhyme or reason for the long-term outlook.
For instance, restructuring the deals of Hayden Hurst and Miles Sanders would make their cap numbers for 2024 significantly more palatable. However, the restructures would lead to the Panthers paying for Sanders and Hurst with significant dead money in 2025, when they could otherwise just take their medicine this year with their current salaries and then be rid of them next season with minimal cost. If Sanders and Hurst were to continue to slump in this scenario, the Panthers would have taken out a significant loan for poor production which would otherwise come off the books with their respective releases in 2025.
Anyway, here are the savings, via Over the Cap, for standard restructures on the Panthers’ notable veteran deals (worth noting that teams can make smaller restructures but these are max savings numbers):
▪ RT Taylor Moton: $8.14 million
▪ CB Donte Jackson: $5.48 million
▪ WR Adam Thielen: $4.9 million
▪ S Vonn Bell: $3.89 million
▪ G Austin Corbett: $3.41 million
▪ RB Miles Sanders: $3.39 million
▪ TE Hayden Hurst: $3.28 million
▪ LB Shaq Thompson: $2.91 million
▪ DT Shy Tuttle: $2.68 million
▪ C Bradley Bozeman: $2.43 million
▪ QB Andy Dalton: $2.09 million
▪ OT Ikem Ekwonu: $1.11 million
The Panthers could also look to save cap space by cutting players. With a new offensive staff in place, moving on from veteran players who might not fit in their plans would make sense. However, only some contracts, based on their structure and previous alterations, would make for substantial savings worthy of moving on.
For instance, it would cost more to cut Sanders than to keep him because of the dead money in his deal. The same could be said for Corbett and Thielen.
The one way to get around that charge is to designate a player as a post-June 1 release, which helps spread the dead money hit over two seasons. However, the savings wouldn’t go through until June, which would be counterproductive from a free agency outlook. Still, some players will be dropped in the summer because of the team’s desire for clean slates.
Here are some of the significant savings numbers for veteran releases before June 1 (numbers via Over The Cap):
▪ Jackson: $5.93 million ($9.78 million in dead money — the result of a 2023 restructuring)
▪ Moton: $5.25 million ($24.5 million in dead money — the result of a 2023 restructuring)
▪ S Xavier Woods: $4.5 million ($3.53 million in dead money)
▪ TE Ian Thomas: $2.26 million ($3.77 million in dead money)
▪ K Eddy Piñeiro: $1.85 million ($695,000 in dead money)
▪ WR Terrace Marshall: $1.44 million ($381,724 million in dead money)
As you can see with the dead money hits of Jackson and Moton, restructuring contracts can lead to future issues with roster maneuvering.
Dead money is spent money, so cutting Jackson and/or Moton wouldn’t be completely ridiculous. But those potential moves would only offer up a small chunk of savings which might not make sense as both would be starters in need of replacing.
Tilis comes from a top-flight organization, the Kansas City Chiefs, and he is well thought of in league circles as a cap manager and contract negotiator. He could use multiple avenues to create cap savings, including extending Moton, which could create as much as $13 million in savings this offseason. The aforementioned Brown extension could be a huge saver as well. It’s really just a matter of how Tilis wants to attack the contracts through multiple angles.
Regarding Burns, it’s my understanding that the Panthers would like the pass rusher to return. Still, they need to be mindful of the market and not overpay to simply appease Burns. It’ll be interesting to see how much leverage his agency lost with his subpar 2023 campaign. A trade probably wouldn’t fetch the substantial return that it would have in 2022 or the 2023 offseason.
Would offensive face-lift lead to immediate turnaround?
Fernando asks: I know the perception is that the Panthers’ roster is really bad. But before the (2023) season it wasn’t like that — even division title was discussed nationally. The (defense), even with all the injuries, was OK. Do you think with the offense being optimized the team can be competitive?
Perception isn’t always reality as last season clearly acknowledged. I think last season’s performance, though, indicated that there is a ton of work to be done to get the Panthers out of the muck of the NFL’s standings wasteland.
Yes, the defense performed admirably through injuries and depth deficiency. Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero’s return is a huge deal for continuity, and really, scheming potential. New head coach Dave Canales now has a leader on defense who knows the personnel of his unit and vice versa. That outlook should lead to less roster manipulation than it would have with a clean slate on defense.
So, the logical recipe for success would be to embrace a new-look offense with players who match Canales’ scheme needs. As stated before in Kaye’s Takes, I think the reasonable expectation is that the Panthers fill out the offense with young veterans to surround quarterback Bryce Young with building blocks for the upcoming two-season turnaround.
I don’t think the Panthers should be wheeling and dealing this offseason, as they are probably a year or two away from being competitive in the sense of being a potential NFC contender. That said, they should look to craft reasonable pacts with up-and-coming free agents who fit into their long-term plans. A big swing at wide receiver/tight end or on the offensive line, along with a mixed assortment of second-tier free agents, would suffice. Names like Gabe Davis, Colby Parkinson, Jonah Williams and Marquise Brown might be more attainable with this strategy than the likes of Tee Higgins, Hunter Henry, Andrus Peat and Mike Evans on the market.
I think the goal of six wins would be a logical forecast for the Panthers after a 2-15 season. That win total would triple the previous year’s victory mark and help the Panthers ascend at a pace that can be looked at a building block outcome. Those teams who win free agency typically lose in the regular season, and the Detroit Lions have shown that steady climbs are more sustainable than “all-in” reworkings.
Again, I wouldn’t count on a Houston Texans-like turnaround. This team’s draft outlook is very, very different from Houston’s last year, and a lot of the Panthers’ prognostications will be based on the progress Young makes with a summer of Canales overlooking him.
