The Bryce Young dilemma: Three thoughts on future of Panthers’ 2023 first overall pick
It’s been five weeks since first-year Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales benched Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2023, for 36-year-old journeyman QB Andy Dalton. During that span, the Panthers’ offense has gone on a roller coaster ride with Dalton, who was supposed to be a consistent, competent upgrade over Young.
But following a 40-7 loss to the Washington Commanders on Sunday, the Panthers have been outscored 170-97 during Dalton’s five games at the helm. And that’s pretty jarring, considering Dalton led the Panthers to a 36-22 win against the Las Vegas Raiders in his first week as the starter. While it’s not Dalton’s fault that the routinely overmatched defense is giving up points at a historic clip, the blowout losses highlight the downside of going with an aging signal-caller over a developmental prospect at the QB position.
Naturally, fans are wondering when they’ll see Young again, as the organization is still paying off the trade that sent the first overall pick to Charlotte in 2023. Trotting out an aging QB, regardless of his improved returns — to some — just doesn’t have the weight of watching Young develop into a smidgen of what Carolina’s previous brass projected him to be.
But Canales said Monday that he’s holding firm with Dalton at the top of the depth chart.
“This is about Andy Dalton,” Canales said. “This is about playing the Broncos (the Panthers’ Week 8 opponent). This is about taking strides with our group that we have. And that’s really where the focus is, and that’s about all I can give you.”
So, with Dalton keeping the job, seemingly for the foreseeable future, where does that leave Young?
Here are three thoughts on Young’s future:
Is there actual trade value?
While national media pundits are hyping the potential trade departure of Young with hypothetical swaps, it’s important to note that the recent history of trading young QBs on their rookie contracts isn’t all that favorable for the departing team.
Here is a look at four recent trades of former top-20 picks who were still on their rookie contracts:
▪ The Chicago Bears traded QB Justin Fields (No. 11 in 2021) to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a conditional sixth-round pick (which could become a fourth-round pick based on playing time) this past offseason. Fields threw for 6,674 yards, 40 touchdowns and 30 interceptions and ran for 2,220 yards and 19 touchdowns in 40 career games (38 starts) for the Bears over three years. He had a 10-28 record as a starter.
▪ The New England Patriots traded QB Mac Jones (No. 15 in 2021) to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a sixth-round pick this past offseason. Jones threw for 8,946 yards, 46 touchdowns and 36 interceptions and ran for 327 yards and a touchdowns in 44 career games (42 starts) for the Patriots over three years. He had an 18-24 record as a starter.
▪ The Steelers traded QB Kenny Pickett (No. 20 in 2022) and a fourth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a third-round pick and two seventh-round picks this past offseason. Pickett threw for 4,474 yards, 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and ran for 291 yards and four touchdowns in 25 career games (24 starts) with the Steelers. He had a 14-10 record as a starter.
▪ The San Francisco 49ers traded QB Trey Lance (No. 3 overall in 2021) to the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round pick in 2023. Lance threw for 797 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions and ran for 235 yards and a touchdown in eight career games (four starts) with the 49ers. He had a 2-2 record as starter.
Speaking to evaluators around the league, the value for Young is hard to nail down.
While one NFC exec said the return could be in the fifth- or sixth-round range, other evaluators have admitted that young QB trades are all about how the trade partner views the player. There are still evaluators out there who are fond of Young as a prospect, and that history — especially with Young’s pedigree as a pick and college standout — could entice other teams.
However, Young’s performance over the past two years has left a lot to be desired, diminishing his value. He’s played less than Fields, Jones and Pickett did before their trades and put up pedestrian numbers compared to Fields and Jones. Lance might be a better comparison, though he wasn’t as exposed as Young was during his time in San Francisco.
The Panthers still owe the Bears a 2025 second-round pick for the 2023 mega-deal to trade up for the top pick. So, getting a 2025 fourth-round pick, potentially, for Young would be a massive loss by any measure. That’s something the Panthers need to weigh if they entertain calls for Young, who is still just 23 years old.
The Panthers were openly criticized for the return for Brian Burns in the trade with the New York Giants in March, so there might be hesitation to garner the reputation of “giving players away” around the league. The potential low return for Young could make the Panthers want to hold onto him into next offseason when rosters are in flux and salary cap space is more favorable.
If a team feels like it won’t get one of its top QB prospects in the draft because of its draft positioning, that team could be inclined to trade for Young on a discount this offseason and give him a try to revitalize his career. Trading him at the deadline is essentially an offer for a backup QB in the middle of the season, which most likely won’t trigger a particularly strong return.
Could Young start again this year?
Canales was pretty unwavering in his support of Dalton on Monday. He has routinely said that Dalton gives the Panthers the best chance to win.
But Carolina is currently on a four-game losing streak.
“If you look at the collection of the games (Dalton has) played, there’s been some really good situational passing that has come out of it,” Canales said. “We’ve had some explosive plays come out of it. The offense has run smoothly for the most part. And I’d love for us as a group, Andy included, to find a way to finish. (Against the Commanders), we didn’t have a shot to finish, the game got out of hand so quickly. But the week before, that’s where we were headed. But now we have to address just fundamental execution, breaking the huddle, lining up properly, finishing the play.”
That doesn’t sound like a head coach who is going to give up on his current QB any time soon. The Panthers (1-6) have a relatively competitive schedule before the Week 11 bye with the Broncos (4-3), New Orleans Saints (2-5) and New York Giants (2-5) coming up. Playing Dalton down that three-game stretch makes sense if the staff feels he gives them the best chance to win.
But after that trio of games, if the Panthers continue to struggle, pushing Dalton out there for the sake of being competitive might be a miscue. This isn’t a playoff team, they are going to want a high pick, and Young has done little to warrant a substantial return in a trade. The Panthers have nothing to lose — but games — by putting Young out there once the season is completely in shambles.
If the team doesn’t move on from Young at the deadline — Canales refused to address “hypothetical” trade talk on Monday — then it would be logical to push him back onto the field to develop and potentially increase his standing in league circles.
If he doesn’t start again in 2024, will he be in Carolina in 2025?
In short: Not likely.
The Panthers potentially letting the season ride out with Dalton when they are cruising toward a top-five pick would be a slap in the face to Young, who was the face of the franchise just two months ago. If Young doesn’t start again, it shows the Panthers have little hope for his future.
That perception could both hurt his relationship with the staff and his trade value in the offseason. The Panthers can praise his ability as the scout-team QB behind the scenes, but the reality is that he’s quarterback one year removed from being the top selection in the draft.
Putting him on ice, so to speak, would tell everyone that he’s not developing enough to secure coaching staff or locker room trust. His late fourth-quarter series in blowouts do nothing to help him or the team — outside of Canales “protecting” Dalton, who is closer to retirement than getting a long-term contract.
The Panthers made this mess in Week 2, and unless they are able to adapt to this seemingly endless string of blowout losses, they’ll only create more nonsense in the weeks and months ahead.
This story was originally published October 23, 2024 at 5:30 AM.
