N&O’s NCAA tournament bracket preview has your dark horses and sentimental favorites
Back by popular (?) demand, this region-by-region bracket preview — in homage to late News & Observer sports columnist Caulton Tudor, who invented the format and lingo and produced this preview for decades — cuts to the meat of the bracket. For the third straight year, it identified a whopping seven of the Sweet 16 in 2023.
WEST
It’s all Love out West
REGIONAL RATING: First
FAVORITE: Arizona gets the benefit of geography, staying out west while North Carolina (1) has to go cross-country to where it lost in the Sweet 16 in 2015.
GOING SWEET: UNC (1), Arizona (2), St. Mary’s (5), New Mexico (11)
DARK HORSES: It would not be shocking in the slightest to see five double-digit seeds in the second round: Nevada (10), New Mexico (11), Grand Canyon (12), College of Charleston (13) and Colgate (14). New Mexico in particular is drastically underseeded.
MIGHT FLOP: Alabama (4) has to go all the way to Spokane, Wash., to play either St. Mary’s or Grand Canyon, if it even gets past Charleston. Baylor (3) gets an experienced NCAA team in Colgate, then has to play either Clemson (6) or New Mexico. That’s a tough pod. Michigan State (9) kept its NCAA streak alive … barely.
SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE: Nobody’s rooting harder for anyone than CBS is rooting for Caleb Love and Arizona to face North Carolina. That’s just a fact, like the firmness of the earth. Long Beach State (15) and Dan Monson agreed to part ways before the conference tournament … and they went ahead and won it.
SYNOPSIS: North Carolina got the No. 1 seed it wanted and also avoided Kansas and Kentucky (speaking of CBS’ rooting interests), but it may have to fly cross-country to join three West Coast teams in Los Angeles and battle through a bracket that has seven of the top 23 teams in KenPom. This is a very difficult road for the Tar Heels.
SOUTH
Cougars shine big and bright in Big D
REGIONAL RATING: Second
FAVORITE: After picking Houston to make the Final Four in Houston last year, we’re doubling down on the Cougars to advance through Dallas, the second-time Texas charm.
GOING SWEET: Houston (1), Kentucky (3), Colorado (10), James Madison (12)
DARK HORSES: James Madison won at Michigan State, has won 13 in a row and will be a trendy upset pick … but the Dukes are legit. Colorado starts in Dayton, but the Buffaloes have the kind of elite inside-outside combo in K.J. Simpson and Tristan da Silva that can ignite a run.
MIGHT FLOP: It’s hard to look at the way Duke (4) played against North Carolina and N.C. State and believe the Blue Devils are truly primed for a long run. Tyler Kolek is one of the best point guards in the country but he didn’t play in the Big East tournament with an abdominal injury. Marquette (2) isn’t the same team without him at full strength.
SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE: You mean, other than N.C. State (11)? The “Why not us?” Wolfpack is riding the wave. Greg Kampe has been at Oakland (14) since 1984 and has the Golden Grizzlies in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011.
SYNOPSIS: This sets up pretty well for an epic Houston-Kentucky regional final with some upset drama along the way. Things rarely work out that neatly, but there are some underseeded teams in this bracket who can do some damage.
EAST
UConn can, again
REGIONAL RATING: Third
FAVORITE: After an upside-down Final Four a year ago, Connecticut is in prime position to get a chance to defend its title.
GOING SWEET: Connecticut (1), Iowa State (2), Illinois (3), San Diego State (5)
DARK HORSES: The father-son combo of Darian and Tucker DeVries gives Drake (10) a chance against anyone. Florida Atlantic (8) has had an up-and-down season but returns almost all of last year’s Final Four team. If the Owls can flip the switch, they know what they’re doing. Morehead State (14) has four players who made 40 or more 3-pointers. Anything’s possible if the Eagles get hot.
MIGHT FLOP: Just for kicks, let’s make the case against UConn. In all three of their losses, they let their opponent get to the free-throw line more often than they did. Illinois and Florida Atlantic both excel at limiting those opportunities and both are good offensive-rebounding teams that could have a shot-volume advantage over the Huskies.
SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE: Keith Dambrot announced Monday he will retire after this his last run at Duquesne (11), where his father was a star. The younger Dambrot is better known for coaching LeBron James in high school. The Dukes also have former N.C. State big man Dusan Mahorcic, at his sixth school in six years. He even played with D.J. Horne at Illinois State.
SYNOPSIS: Smart bracketeers will leverage UConn’s popularity by going against the Huskies and looking for value elsewhere, but there’s a reason why Connecticut is going to be a popular pick, and there doesn’t appear to be anyone in this quadrant in the Huskies’ class.
MIDWEST
Creighton looms as Purdue’s biggest threat
REGIONAL RATING: Fourth
FAVORITE: Purdue could easily have been the No. 1 seed overall and the Boilermakers could almost walk to sites in Indianapolis and Detroit. They’ll have a home-court advantage and the impending back-to-back national player of the year.
GOING SWEET: Purdue (1), Tennessee (2), Creighton (3), McNeese State (12)
DARK HORSES: Only Houston and Iowa State among tournament teams forced more turnovers per possession than Samford (13), often a recipe for NCAA success. McNeese State has a “strong-ass” chance to break some brackets during Will Wade’s reputation-rehabilitation tour. Utah State (8) is one of several underseeded Mountain West teams.
MIGHT FLOP: It’s Rick Barnes in March, so Tennessee (2) defines this category, and the Vols may have to go through Texas to boot. After last year’s debacle, Purdue (1) still has to prove it has more to offer than Zach Edey. Gonzaga (5) was gifted a much better seed than the Zags ever deserved. This is not a vintage Gonzaga team. Kansas (4) was appropriately seeded but this is not a vintage Kansas team, either.
SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE: Like Zion Williamson in 2019, Edey had to show up and do an award tour at the Final Four last year. A player as good as he is deserves to be there for the right reasons. Purdue upgraded its backcourt after the fairly embarrassing Fairleigh Dickinson upset.
SYNOPSIS: If things are going to go haywire anywhere, it looks like here. Three of the top four seeds have a history of unexpected exits and there are some really dangerous double-digiteers. Given all that, this feels like the year Creighton finally makes its run, like Gonzaga in 2017, albeit without the No. 1 overall seed.
FINAL FOUR
Connecticut, Houston, Arizona, Creighton
NATIONAL CHAMPION
Houston
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This story was originally published March 19, 2024 at 6:00 AM with the headline "N&O’s NCAA tournament bracket preview has your dark horses and sentimental favorites."
