Scott Fowler

What’s the halftime score? For Panthers, the answer tells you all you need to know.

If you want to know who’s going to win the Carolina/New Orleans game Sunday but you don’t want to invest three hours watching it, I’ve got a simple solution for you.

See who’s leading at halftime and then turn off the game, secure in the knowledge that whatever team is ahead after the first 30 minutes will also be ahead when the players walk off the field for good.

The Panthers (5-5) have played 10 games this season, and in all 10 the team leading at halftime also won the game.

This was the case in the two games that Cam Newton quarterbacked – the Panthers trailed at halftime in both of those and then lost.

That’s a small sample size, but the next one isn’t. Kyle Allen has turned out to be quite a good front-runner at QB after replacing the injured Newton in Week 3. Carolina has led five times at half with Allen running the offense and has won all five. (And the same thing happened last year when Allen made his debut as an NFL starter in New Orleans).

On the other hand, when it’s gone badly in the first two quarters for Allen, it’s gone badly the whole game. He’s only started nine games in his NFL career, going 6-3, but he has no fourth-quarter comeback wins to speak of yet. He came close in Green Bay, but “close” is code for “you didn’t get it done” in the sports world.

This isn’t just an Allen issue, of course. It’s a team issue.

Said Panthers head coach Ron Rivera: “We have been good with a lead… Our guys do the things they need to keep it. I think when we get behind we press a little bit…. And I think maybe there is something to do with inexperience.”

Inexperience likely does have something to do with it. Another problem has to do with how Carolina’s run-first offense is structured. It hums along most efficiently when star running back Christian McCaffrey is finding holes behind the offensive line and keying long drives. The Panthers don’t score very fast very often, though, and drives like that take time.

The Panthers count on running back Christian McCaffrey to help sustain long drives against opponents, but those sorts of marches are harder to create if you’re already down by 2-3 scores.
The Panthers count on running back Christian McCaffrey to help sustain long drives against opponents, but those sorts of marches are harder to create if you’re already down by 2-3 scores. Jeff Siner jsiner@charlotteobserver.com

“We’re a really good running team,” Panthers tight end Greg Olsen said. We’ve got the best back in the league…. But it doesn’t matter when you’re down 20-0.”

That 20-0 margin was the score at halftime last week against Atlanta, when the Panthers got creamed, 29-3, at home in a game so maddening that Carolina owner David Tepper awoke twice Sunday night to relive the details and get even more riled up.

All NFL teams preach the value of the fast start. But for Carolina on Sunday, it will be even more important. New Orleans is one of the most difficult places to play, especially once a team gets down by a couple of scores.

“In order to make (McCaffrey) super-effective,” Olsen said, “we need to be in the lead. The game cannot be out of reach, because then our run game kind of becomes obsolete… Those are the games that we have to be in, so those carries by him in the second half mean something.”

Kudos to Tepper for inviting the local media to a sit-down opportunity Monday at Bank of America Stadium. It was the sort of thing his predecessor, Jerry Richardson, almost never did.

Somehow I get the feeling that Panthers’ backup rookie quarterback Will Grier is going to get meaningful snaps in one of these final six games.

Isn’t it about time for Luke Kuechly to make another big play?

Drew Brees is 14-11 all-time against Carolina, including the playoffs. Legendarily quick at getting rid of the ball, Brees, 40, has managed to take fewer than three sacks in 22 of those 25 games vs. the Panthers.

Prediction time: I fell to 7-3 picking Carolina games last week after choosing the Panthers to beat Atlanta. The Panthers badly need a bounce-back win vs. New Orleans, but it seems too difficult a task.

My pick: New Orleans 31, Carolina 20

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