The Panthers won’t be bad enough to draft Trevor Lawrence. A season prediction, promise
Ah, Nov. 3rd, 2019.
What a day it was, that sepia-tinged afternoon of 10 long months ago.
It was exactly one year before the 2020 presidential election. The New York Times published a story about “The End of Betomania,” while The Charlotte Observer published a photo of quarterback Kyle Allen on its front page. No one had even heard of COVID-19.
That day was also notable because it was the last time the Carolina Panthers won a game. They whipped a good Tennessee team, 30-20, as Christian McCaffrey ran for 146 yards and scored three touchdowns. By that evening, Carolina was 5-3 and thinking about the playoffs.
I remember walking out of Bank of America Stadium that night on a cool fall evening and thinking: “Whoa, my preseason prediction sure was off!” And it was — but not in the way that I figured.
Today I write my annual preseason prediction column, the one you get to remind me of when I invariably mess it up.
In my 2019 preseason prediction for the Panthers, I picked Carolina to go 7-9. They never won another game last year after conquering the Titans, losing eight straight to finish 5-11.
Since that Nov. 3 day when McCaffrey led Carolina’s charge over a Tennessee team that would reach the AFC Championship game, the Panthers have: Fired a head coach (Ron Rivera) and hired a new one (Matt Rhule); released their franchise quarterback (Cam Newton) and franchise tight end (Greg Olsen); grimaced as their franchise linebacker suddenly retired (Luke Kuechly); hired a new quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater); and ordered the removal of the Jerry Richardson statue from outside the stadium.
It has been, as they say, a lot.
On Sunday, when Carolina opens the 2020 regular season against the Las Vegas Raiders in Charlotte, it will have been 315 days since Panthers fans have seen their team win a game. None of those people will technically see a victory Sunday, either — even if Carolina were to win, the stadium will be empty of fans due to COVID-19. A screen will have to suffice.
But Carolina will win this season. At some point. At least a little.
This Panthers team isn’t built to win right away — it will start up to four rookies on a defense that will struggle. But it also isn’t about to go 0-16. It will sneak out a few wins this season — about one per month on average.
On the positive side, this will be a more exciting season than, say, 2010, when Carolina not only went 2-14 but also had the worst offense in franchise history. Games later this season at Bank of America Stadium will probably be allowed a limited number of fans; that was just a normal afternoon in 2010 when quarterback Jimmy Clausen was directing the show.
On the negative side, I don’t think the 2020 Panthers will be bad enough to get the No. 1 overall draft pick and choose Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 NFL draft.
The reason? This Panthers team already has enough offense to score in the 30s. With McCaffrey, wide receiver DJ Moore, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and a better offensive line, points are coming. But the other teams will be scoring bunches of them, too, especially given the three other standout quarterbacks in the NFC South and Carolina’s iffy D.
I’d like to be a believer in new head coach Matt Rhule, who talks a good game. There’s no way to tell how good his plan actually is, though, until about Year 2.
This season is a foundational year. A “Let’s Rebuild” year. About half the roster has turned over from a year ago, which is high even by NFL standards.
OK ... a prediction and a promise.
First of all, the promise. It’s going to be a lot of fun. The Panthers are a loose group, they aren’t expected to win, they’re young, they’re fast — the journey will be a trip.
The prediction? The 2020 Panthers are at least a year from league-wide relevance. Their final record will be 4-12.
