Chances are slim, but the Panthers can upset the Chiefs today. Here’s how.
If the Carolina Panthers are going to have any chance of a signature upset Sunday against Kansas City, they will probably need to score in the 30s.
The return of Christian McCaffrey from an ankle injury will certainly help the likelihood of that. Even though McCaffrey has played in only two of the Panthers’ eight games, his four TDs in 2020 are tied for the most on the team. McCaffrey’s value has been most in evidence when Carolina gets into the other team’s red zone, where too often the Panthers failed to get into the end zone and had to have kicker Joey Slye boot another field goal.
Against the Chiefs — averaging 31.6 points per game, which trails only Seattle — field goals won’t be nearly good enough.
The Panthers have fallen off in point production recently. They had 30-plus points in two of their first four games but have only averaged 20 points per game in their last four. You will never beat the Chiefs with 20 points.
In fact, one of the stats I find most remarkable about the Chiefs is that they are aiming to score at least 23 points for the 23rd straight game (counting both regular and postseason) Sunday. That would break an NFL record held by …. You guessed it, the Chiefs. Kansas City has scored at least 23 points in 44 of its past 45 games.
So the Panthers will have to score 24, at the least, to have any chance. But really, with wunderkind quarterback Patrick Mahomes playing at home and utilizing all his weapons, even 34 might not be enough. To be safe, you probably need to score 40.
Panthers vs Chiefs thoughts
▪ Count Mahomes as one of the many anxious to see McCaffrey return from the high-ankle sprain that sidelined him for six games. “He’s a guy that can do it all,” Mahomes told Chiefs beat reporters this past week. “He can catch the ball just as well as he runs the ball. ... He can run the ball between the tackles, he can have the speed to win on the outside, and he can run routes just like a receiver. Talented guy, and I’m excited to get to watch him play.”
▪ Coach Matt Rhule’s quote on Teddy Bridgewater and Carolina’s problems protecting him this week was instructive. It showed both how much Rhule values Bridgewater and how frustrated he has been with the Panthers’ recent inability to protect him.
“When Teddy Bridgewater is upright, he’s playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League,” Rhule said. “And so we have got to protect our quarterback and not let them hit him and push him and shove him and tackle him and sack him. We have got to protect him. And when we do that, the offense works.”
▪ Prediction time. I fell to 4-4 last week by picking Carolina to beat Atlanta at home. I just can’t figure out Panthers-Falcons games, having gone 0-2 on them this season.
This game, against the defending Super Bowl champions at home, is an easier call.
My prediction: Kansas City 37, Carolina 24.
This story was originally published November 8, 2020 at 6:00 AM.