Panthers have forced 2 punts in the last 4 games. Intriguing numbers to watch vs Lions
Here are a few numbers and statistics I will be monitoring Sunday at 1 p.m. when Carolina hosts the Detroit Lions at Bank of America Stadium:
25: Tackles Mike Davis has officially broken this season, which is tied for the NFL lead. As a team, the Panthers have broken 52 tackles, which leads the NFL.
On the other side of that coin, the Panthers have missed 85 tackles as a team, according to Pro Football Reference — second-worst in the league to the New York Jets. So there’s Carolina in a nutshell — exciting enough to make people miss on offense; frustrating enough to miss, a lot, on defense.
44: Robby Anderson’s average receiving yardage over Carolina’s past three games. It’s not terrible, but it’s quite a drop-off from what Anderson averaged the first seven games of the season (91.4 yards per game). It feels like it’s about time for Anderson to break a long one again.
9: If you are still thinking the 2020 Panthers have red-zone woes on offense, you are at least temporarily behind the times. They once did, but not anymore. The Panthers have scored a touchdown each of the past nine times they have advanced inside the opponents’ 20. They just aren’t getting inside the 20 enough.
20: The Lions have scored at least 20 points in each of their first nine games of the season. So you better be planning on scoring at least in the 20s — but quite likely in the low 30s — to beat them.
4: How many people both teams will be rushing the quarterback with most of the time, which should generally give the QBs a lot of time to throw. Detroit and Carolina are two of the NFL’s lowest five teams in blitz percentage, with each team blitzing only 20% of the time.
55.3: Third-down conversion percentage against Carolina’s defense, and it’s an embarrassment. It’s the highest percentage in the NFL, and if the Panthers keep it up they will set an all-time record for worst percentage.
2: Punts forced by the Panthers over the past four games. Not two punts per game — two punts total. This has a lot to do with that third-down conversion number. So if Detroit punter Jack Fox comes on the field even twice Sunday to kick the ball away, consider that a victory in itself.
95: The number for Detroit defensive end Romeo Okwara, who returns home to Charlotte for this game. Okwara played at Ardrey Kell in high school — after he was cut from his middle school team as an eighth-grader — and then played at Notre Dame. He grew up a football fan, particularly of Steve Smith, Julius Peppers and Jake Delhomme.
▪ Prediction time. I hit on Tampa Bay’s win over Carolina last week to bring me to 6-4 predicting Panther outcomes in 2020. For this one, I think Carolina has a real chance to win, but the uncertain quarterback situation for the Panthers makes me lean toward Detroit.
My pick: Detroit 28, Carolina 25.
