Democrats are on a roll, but North Carolina is not Virginia

Democrats are hopeful after last week’s successful election results in Virginia and elsewhere. But Democrats in North Carolina should exercise cautious optimism.

2018 in North Carolina will be different from 2017 in Virginia in three ways:

1. North Carolina is less Democratic. In 2008, after decades of supporting Republican presidential nominees, both states voted for Barack Obama. However, Virginia also voted for the Democrat in 2012 and 2016, but North Carolina did not. What suggests a trend in Virginia is more of an anomaly in North Carolina. Furthermore, North Carolina Republicans have been more successful statewide than Virginia Republicans lately. Sen. Thom Tillis beat then-Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014. The current N.C. Council of State has 6 Republicans and 3 Democrats. In Virginia, the statewide offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general were all held by Democrats going into 2017.

2. The Virginia and North Carolina Democratic Parties operate at different stages of sophistication. North Carolina’s expenditures are a fraction of Virginia’s in non-presidential years. The Virginia Democratic Party has a chief operating officer, a chief technology officer, and a political director listed on its website. North Carolina’s does not. In addition, Virginia’s proximity to Washington, D.C., means Democrats there have access to politically savvy and experienced volunteers.

3. North Carolina will not be the focus in 2018, when Congress and 87 state legislative bodies will be on the ballot. National resources, campaign talent and attention will be stretched thin – leaving North Carolina Democrats to fundraise, staff and cover their own elections. Also, North Carolina will not have a statewide office on the ballot in 2018. Gerrymandered congressional districts are at the top of the ticket, where the lack of competition will reduce get-out-the-vote efforts and hurt down-ballot candidates. Only three of 13 U.S. House seats in North Carolina are listed as even close to competitive (likely Republican) in the respected Cook Political Report.

That said, there are important lessons to be learned from last week’s elections.

1. Authentic, passionate people should run for office. There is no single profile of a successful candidate. Voters elected the first black woman mayor of Charlotte, Vi Lyles, and the first Asian-American woman to serve on City Council, Dimple Ajmera. Vernetta Alston, a queer woman of color, was elected to Ward 3 Durham City Council.

2. Democrats must compete in tough districts. The increase in unaffiliated voters in North Carolina, the move away from party-focused elections to candidate-focused elections, and narrower margins of victory create opportunities for compelling candidates with skillfully executed campaigns.

3. A 6 percentage-point increase in Charlotte turnout despite mediocre get-out-the-vote efforts means that people are taking elections seriously. Democrats should create pathways for them to stay informed and engaged.

Recruiting, fundraising and campaigning for 2018 is already underway. Democrats should summon up the courage to say “no” to perennial candidates, invest in professional development of campaign staff and embrace new voices and perspectives.

This story was originally published November 16, 2017 at 2:48 PM with the headline "Democrats are on a roll, but North Carolina is not Virginia."