Trade up? Carolina Panthers more likely to trade down

Fans are always interested in the possibility of their favorite team trading up to get their favorite player, but rarely does that scenario happen.

In the case of the Carolina Panthers, movement is possible tonight. But what’s more likely to happen Thursday night is Carolina trading down – and possibly out of the first round.

Consider these three factors: The Panthers don’t have as many first-round grades this year as last year, the top tackles could be gone before pick No. 25 and there’s great value in picks between the second and fourth rounds.

Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman admitted earlier this week that this year’s draft is closer to 2013 than 2014 in terms of first-round talent. He chalked that up to first- and second-round talent deciding to stay in school another year.

But Carolina had “enough” first-round grades, Gettleman said, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for a team picking near the bottom of the first round.

Then look at the situation at tackle. Gettleman said there are four to five players who could play left tackle in the NFL, and it’s possible they’re gone or untouchable by No. 25.

Miami’s Ereck Flowers has shot up the draft boards. Stanford’s Andrus Peat is also a longshot to be there at 25. And there’s no telling what happens with LSU’s La’el Collins.

Collins, thought of earlier this week as a potential lock in the top 15, is meeting with law enforcement to answer questions about the murder of a pregnant woman thought to be his ex-girlfriend. Police say he’s not a suspect, but with news breaking this week teams are scrambling for more information.

With Collins’ situation in the air, Florida tackle and Charlotte native D.J. Humphries could go up in the order. That would take him off the board before 25. As it stands, Collins is too much of a risk for a Panthers organization that has seen before the headline Collins is associated with now.

Then look at the value in the rounds after the first. There are receivers throughout the second and third rounds. There are linemen who, while they may not be future left tackles, could play right for years to come. There are linebackers and defensive ends to be had.

Guys such as outside linebacker/safety Shaq Thompson, receiver Phillip Dorsett, defensive end Preston Smith (and even my mocked selection of defensive end Owa Odighizuwa) could all be sitting there near the top of the second, which would make for great value picks.

Looking at the recent history of teams at the back of the first round trading out, there are two examples that fit Carolina. In 2013 New England traded its 29th pick to Minnesota and got a second- (52), third- (83), fourth- (102) and seventh-(229) round picks while keeping its second-round pick at 59.

Last year Seattle traded its 32nd to Minnesota (who snuck into the first to secure quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and get the flexibility of a fifth-year option) and got the Vikings’ second- (40) and fourth-round (108) picks while keeping its second-round pick at 64.

It’s also conceivable the Panthers package some mid-round picks to get more second-, third- and fourth-round selections. Gettleman didn’t seem too jazzed Tuesday about drafting nine players this weekend.

The greatest argument against trading out of the first round is a counterpoint not taken lightly. As with Minnesota and Bridgewater, teams get the opportunity for a fifth-year option with a first-round pick whereas you do not with a second rounder.

Carolina has exercised those options with Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly, and it’s been a big part in helping Gettleman negotiate the salary cap.

That risk/reward balance is imperative when a team asks itself if the perceived value of trading back is worth what it’s giving up.

So to say the Panthers are “shopping” their first-round pick would be too strong. But there’s no doubt that if the phone rings in Carolina’s draft room tonight, Gettleman will be listening.

This story was originally published April 30, 2015 at 11:44 AM with the headline "Trade up? Carolina Panthers more likely to trade down."