Carolina Panthers should play starters in Week 17, even if home field is wrapped up

Former Carolina Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith might be gone, but his ghost from playoffs past might affect Ron Rivera’s decision on how to approach Week 17 against Tampa Bay.

As Rivera weighs whether to rest his starters with the possibility of an undefeated season, he’s been reminded of the 2005 NFC playoffs, when Smith and the Panthers knocked off Chicago 29-21 in the divisional round.

Rivera doesn’t have a decision to make, yet.

Arizona’s victory over Philadelphia on Sunday night means the earliest the Panthers (14-0) can wrap up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs is this week, with a victory at Atlanta or a loss by the Cardinals (12-2) vs. Green Bay.

But assuming the Panthers clinch home field this week, Rivera’s decision should be this: Play quarterback Cam Newton, middle linebacker Luke Kuechly and the rest of the starters into the third quarter against the Bucs, then get them out of the game regardless of the score.

There’s no easy answer on this.

Observer columnist Scott Fowler wrote two weeks ago that the Panthers should rest their significant starters in the Jan. 3 game against Tampa Bay because the risk of injury isn’t worth the reward – even when that carrot is a 16-0 season.

And there’s no question: Losing Newton, tight end Greg Olsen, center Ryan Kalil, Kuechly, linebacker Thomas Davis and a number of other starters would be a big blow to the Panthers’ Super Bowl hopes.

But sitting Newton and Co. in the regular-season finale would amount to a two-week rest for the Panthers’ starters, factoring in the bye week before the divisional round game at Bank of America Stadium the weekend of Jan. 16-17.

For a hot team riding the hot hand of the league’s leading MVP candidate, that’s too long of a break between games.

Newton’s in a great rhythm while in the midst of the best seven-game stretch of his career. Why take a chance in disrupting it?

And it’s not just Newton’s timing that could be impacted.

The Panthers can take all the practice reps they want. But practice speed is not the same as game speed.

Rivera seems to be leaning toward treating the Bucs’ game – again assuming home-field is taken care of – like a third preseason game, when starters typically play into the third quarter.

During the Panthers’ third preseason game this year, Newton was sacked by New England’s Chandler Jones on the final play of the first half.

Yet, Newton was back on the field for the start of the second half, leading the Panthers on a touchdown drive against the Patriots’ second-team defense. Newton came out after that series, giving way to Derek Anderson as Rivera started emptying the bench.

That should be the approach in Week 17 as well.

Rivera sounds like he learned a lesson from how the Bears approached the playoffs 10 years ago. Rivera was the defensive coordinator under ex-Chicago coach Lovie Smith, who decided to rest many of his starters in a Week 17 loss at Minnesota.

The Bears were 11-4 and had secured a first-round bye, but were locked in with the No. 2 seed and couldn’t catch Seattle for home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Smith sat seven starters against the Vikings, including quarterback Rex Grossman and five defensive players. And the starters who did play barely broke a sweat: Pro Bowl linebacker Brian Urlacher was out of the game before recording a defensive statistic.

The Bears, who had the NFL’s second-ranked defense that season, allowed 396 yards in a 34-10 loss at Minnesota.

Two weeks later, with the rested starters back in, the Bears gave up 434 yards. Smith, the fiery Panthers wideout, torched the Chicago secondary for 12 catches for 218 yards and two touchdowns. It was the fifth-highest receiving total in NFL playoff history.

After the game several defensive players told Rivera sitting out Week 17 had allowed rust to set in.

“At the time it seemed like a great idea. We all agreed and thought it would be good,” Rivera said Monday. “But after the game and listening to what the players had to say, guys (were) talking about, ‘A little rusty, I wished we’d played a little bit more.’

“Because we had the bye week, too. So just listening to that really just kind of reminded me, I’ve always kind of kept that in the back of my mind.”

Rivera says he’s glad the game at Atlanta (7-7) has meaning. There’s no decision to make this week: The starters will play when the Panthers try to wrap up home-field advantage at the Georgia Dome, where they clinched the NFC South the past two seasons in Week 17.

“This next game has value. After that, these are players. These guys want to play,” Rivera said. “Is there a fine line? There probably is. But it has to be decided. We get to the next game we’ll decide that.”

But given his experience with the Bears a decade ago, it’s likely Rivera has already made up his mind about Week 17.

Playing the starters is not about chasing a 16-0 regular season. It’s about winning the Super Bowl.

Momentum is a real thing in athletics, and the Panthers have been riding a wave of it since last December.

Messing with it before their most important games of the season is a bad idea.

This story was originally published December 22, 2015 at 11:47 AM with the headline "Carolina Panthers should play starters in Week 17, even if home field is wrapped up."