Arizona at Carolina: What can fans expect in NFC Championship Game?

We’ve already told you to throw out the tape of last year’s NFC playoff game between the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals because Arizona is so different.

If you go back to their 2013 matchup – a 22-6 Cardinals victory in Arizona – you’ll see a dropped touchdown by Steve Smith. Josh Thomas, Captain Munnerlyn, Robert Lester and Mike Mitchell comprised Carolina’s secondary. Cam Newton chased down Antoine Cason, who has since been with Carolina and is now out of the league, from behind after a fumble recovery.

Suffice to say, this matchup is different than the most recent ones between the top two teams in the NFC. Here’s a look, via a rhetorical Q&A, at what we could see Sunday night in Charlotte when they meet.

Q: I’m so excited for the Josh Norman vs. Larry Fitzgerald matchup this weekend. Who do you think wins it?

A: Sorry to begin this with a bit of bad news, but I don’t think we’re going to see this matchup very much. Fitzgerald plays more than half the time in the slot, and Norman plays only outside.

Norman didn’t follow Odell Beckham Jr. when he moved inside. Ditto with Julio Jones. There’s no indication that’s going to change this week against Fitzgerald, who, according to Pro Football Focus, lined up in the slot on 57 percent of his 598 routes this season.

Norman is coming off a game where he allowed all five balls thrown his way to be caught for 57 yards and a touchdown.There weren’t any big-yard completions, but he didn’t break up a pass against Seattle.

Meanwhile, Fitzgerald is coming off another great postseason game where he caught eight passes on 12 targets for 176 yards, including all the yards and scores the Cardinals needed in overtime to beat the Packers.

In re-watching the Cardinals-Packers game, I saw just one pass-and-catch from Carson Palmerto Fitzgerald that Norman would have realistically defended. Palmer hit Fitzgerald, lined up outside against Damarious Randall, down the right sideline for 32 yards.

I think Norman is long and athletic enough to defend that ball and knock it away along the sideline. He also has the technique to squeeze Fitzgerald better down to the sideline and, if the pass isn’t defended, he could also leave the receiver no room to get his feet in bounds.

Q: Oh, OK. Well, who’s going to cover Fitzgerald? Who will Norman be on? And won’t that be bad for the Panthers after what Russell Wilson did to the secondary in the second half?

A: The Panthers usually play Cover-3 defense, which means the field is split into thirds by the two corners and free safety. It’s possible Norman will see Fitzgerald on plays here, but if the Panthers are in man, look for Michael Floyd to go against Norman. Floyd was held to just three catches for 26 yards against the Packers.

Cornerback Robert McClain will see a lot of time against second-year receiver John Brown. That leaves Cortland Finnegan matched up against Fitzgerald in the slot.

Here’s the tough part: McClain allowed seven catches on 14 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, and he benefited from a couple overthrows from Wilson that could have inflated those numbers.

Finnegan seemed overmatched for most of the second half, too. And their safety valve – free safety Kurt Coleman – turned in what was probably his worst game of the season by allowing six catches for 93 yards and a touchdown on seven targets, according to Pro Football Focus.

Q: So what’s the good news in the matchup between Carolina’s pass defense and Arizona’s passing offense?

A: The sky isn’t falling. Arizona has one great receiver and two really good ones. But the Panthers’ players get paid to do this, too.

Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly has gotten remarkably better in pass coverage since he hugged the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski in the end zone in a 2013 Monday Night Football game. His tracking of a Wilson pass to knock it away from Doug Baldwin in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s win was a perfect example. He’ll be able to help in the middle of the field if Palmer looks there.

Secondly, Palmer is a zero-threat to run. He has rushed 60 times for 52 yards in his three years with Arizona. The Panthers don’t have to devote resources to squelching this threat like they had to against Wilson.

And finally, for as great as Palmer was this season – he should finish second in MVP voting to Newton – he made a few mistakes last week that he paid for, and a few he didn’t.

Palmer finished with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Green Bay when it could have easily been two touchdowns and four or five interceptions.

His second touchdown came off a ricochet that was defended by Randall and could have been intercepted in the end zone. Instead Floyd plucked it out of the air for the touchdown.

Sam Shields dropped a sure interception three plays before that. And earlier in the game Palmer threw a touch pass that was just over a linebacker’s fingertips after he mistimed his jump.

Q: Seattle wasn’t able to run the ball much against Carolina because the Seahawks were down so big, so early, but it seemed like they handled the running game really well. Can the Panthers do it again this week?

A: I think so. As I said, Palmer is no threat to run, which will change the Panthers’ defensive scheme from last week. But the Cardinals had very little success against Green Bay last week after the Packers were ranked 21st in rushing defense during the season.

David Johnson, the starter now after a spate of injuries at that position, had a measly 2.3 yards per carry on 15 rushes. Andre Ellington chipped in 3 yards on three carries.

Carolina had the fourth-best rushing defense in the league this season and held Seattle to 78 yards in a game where the Seahawks were forced to abandon the run after halftime.

Defensive tackle Star Lotulelei was a big factor in the run-stuffing, and the linebackers took care of things at the second level if Marshawn Lynch penetrated the line. Another big, early lead and the Panthers won’t have to worry about the run for the second straight game.

Q: What about this offense? Will Cam Newton be able to run on this team more than he did against Seattle?

A: Arizona’s defense is very good, and they were a Hail Mary away from holding Aaron Rodgers to 13 points. But Carolina’s offense is as good if not better after finishing the season as the best scoring offense in the league.

The Panthers once again rushed for more than 100 yards, got contributions from their defense and Newton didn’t make any costly mistakes in the victory over Seattle. That can continue this week.

The Cardinals send a lot of pressure in various ways, but that wasn’t very effective against Rodgers last week when Arizona sacked him just once, in desperation time.

But for a different quarterback and offensive scheme there will be a different defensive mentality. The Cardinals will want to contain Newton rather than allowing him to extend plays either horizontally or vertically.

Carolina will employ some zone-read that should allow Newton to pick up more yards on the ground this week than the 3 total yards on 11 carries he had against Seattle.

Rodgers squirted out for one rush of 19 yards, but the Cardinals will keep an eye on Newton. His rushing ability is imperative to Carolina’s offensive success, and if it’s a tight game late, there’s little doubt the ball will be in his hands.

Q: What happened to Ted Ginn Jr.?

A: Whatever the Seahawks did to Ginn worked. He had one catch for 18 yards in their first meeting and was shutout against them last week.

Ginn was bothered by a knee injury but still played. It’s clear he’s not at 100 percent health, but what’s unclear is if he was used more as a decoy than a weapon. The Seahawks had to respect his speed, and the Cardinals will have to do the same.

Carolina would love to get him matched up against Justin Bethel, who allowed five catches for 93 yards and a touchdown as Rodgers picked on him for most of the first half.

Bethel struggled against Jeff Janis, who has a larger body than Ginn. So if Carolina can’t match Ginn’s speed against Bethel, the Panthers could try 6-foot-4 receiver Devin Funchess against Bethel for some opportunities.

Q: Who are the players in this game with the potential to be game-changers?

A: Cornerback Patrick Peterson has that potential every week. He’s one of the most athletic, explosive players in the league and can hurt you on defense or special teams.

Peterson is a dangerous punt returner with an average of 10 yards per return on his career. He’s racked up 17 interceptions in his five-year career and has nine fumble recoveries.

His defensive backfield mate Tyrann Mathieu is out for the season with a knee injury, but Peterson still holds it down in the secondary. Newton will think twice before throwing his way.

For Carolina, it’s Thomas Davis. The most-tenured Panther is starting in his first NFC Championship Game--he substituted at safety in January 2006 – and has the ability to shift a game. Four of his 10 career interceptions and 5 1/2 of his 23 career sacks came this season.

Arizona doesn’t seem to have much use for tight end Darren Fells in the passing game. Fells caught 21 passes for 311 yards this season and was targeted twice for 14 yards against the Packers.

If the Cardinals won’t utilize Fells, that could free Davis up to blitz Palmer or shade to a receiver’s side in zone coverage.

 

This story was originally published January 19, 2016 at 1:02 PM with the headline "Arizona at Carolina: What can fans expect in NFC Championship Game?."