The Carolina Panthers are favored by 2.5 points over the Seahawks. Here’s why
Carolina remains a slight favorite heading into Sunday afternoon’s playoff showdown with Seattle at Bank of America Stadium.
By how many points? That number is currently 2.5 to 3, depending on which Vegas oddsmaker you go with.
Now, if you’re familiar with sports betting, you can stop reading right here. But if you’ve ever wondered what goes on behind that magic number – how it’s determined, what it implies, and how to decide whether to take that bet – you might learn something by continuing on.
First things first, of course: Sports betting is illegal in all states except Nevada, Oregon, Delaware and Montana. That list, as you can see, does not include North or South Carolina.
Having said this, many average fans are interested in Vegas odds because they are curious about which team is supposed to win, says Dave Tuley, an ESPN.com sports betting expert who also runs ViewFromVegas.com. “People want to know: What are the oddsmakers thinking? What team should win? Should it be a close game, or is it expected to be a blowout? ... And a lot of people love to cheer for the underdog.”
We asked Tuley to walk us through a very basic primer on sports betting – just in case, ahem, you are making a visit to one of those states were sports betting is legal in the next few days.
Q. So when we talk about the “point spread” of the Panthers’ playoff game, what exactly does that number mean?
A. The spread is really a bookmaking mechanism to split the betting action. If bookmakers can get equal money on both sides of the game, then they get to keep their “vig.” The “vig” is the 10 percent more that you wager on to make a bet. So if I bet $11 on Seattle and you bet $11 on Carolina, well, one of us is gonna win and get back $21, but then the book keeps that extra dollar (from the loser) – that’s their commission. And obviously, most bets are more than $11. ... They don’t care who wins, as long as they split the action.
Q. Um, I’m still a little confused.
A. OK, let’s take the Arizona-Green Bay game. If you didn’t have a point spread, far more people would just bet on Arizona to win the game, because they’re the better team and much more likely to win. But you put the 7-point spread on there, and it makes it more of a 50-50 proposition, which is what the bookmakers are looking for. (In other words: If everyone bet on Arizona and Arizona went on to win, bookmakers wouldn’t get any “vig,” or commission. A well-determined spread splits the betting and assures there will be “losers.”)
Q. How is the spread initially determined?
A. The bookmakers have power ratings to determine the relative strength of the two teams and what they think the line should be – that’s the “science” of bookmaking. The “art” is that they also know that certain teams get bet more and they have to take that into account when setting the line. For example, bettors love to bet on the New England Patriots, so a lot of times the bookmakers will automatically increase the point spreads on them by a point or two, again, to try and balance that action.
Q. And the spread can change, right?
A. Yeah. As all those bets come in, the bookmakers will move the line again to try and balance the action. One book in Vegas, for instance, opened the game at pick ’em (i.e. you just need to have your team win the game; no point spread is taken into account), and most other books opened at Carolina -1 or -2 (meaning the Panthers were favored by 1 or 2 points). But all the early money came in on Carolina, which pushed the number up. Injuries are also one of the big things that’ll affect point spreads. The obvious example is the Pittsburgh-Denver game: Most bookmakers don’t have a spread on that game yet because they’re waiting to see if (Steelers quarterback) Ben Roethlisberger is gonna be in or out, or how effective he will be at throwing the deep ball. (Roethlisberger has been battling an injury to his right shoulder.)
Q. So if you bet on the Panthers-Seahawks game, who would you take based on the current spread?
A. The operative word if. The best advantage that sports bettors have is to be selective. The oddsmakers have to put up lines on every game ... but sharp bettors only bet when they feel they have an edge. If the only line I could get is Seattle +2.5 (meaning underdogs by 2.5 points), I would pass. The worst thing a bettor can do is bet every game on the board or every game they’re going to watch on TV. I’m not all that thrilled with Seattle +3, but at least it gives me insurance in case the Panthers win by exactly a field goal and I would get a refund. That’s why I said I would love to get the Seahawks +3.5, as that would flip the value, as that result would be a win. Now, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of your readers have access to that line if they’re dealing with a bookie in Carolina who knows that 90 percent of his clientele is going to root, root, root for the home team and bet the Panthers no matter the price and might make all those homers lay -3.5.
Q. Wait, is sports betting legal in North Carolina now?
A. No, it is not.
Q. (Gasp.)
A. Look, the off-shore betting industry, online, is really big. Plus, I’m sure there are people that have bookies either at local bars or bowling alleys, stuff like that.
Q. (While Googling bowling alleys in Charlotte): All betting aside, what are your thoughts on the Panthers?
A. I like them a lot. I definitely respect what Seattle’s done the last few years, although obviously they were lucky to advance with the missed field goal the other day. But Carolina, I wasn’t high on them early in the season. When (Panthers wide receiver) Kelvin Benjamin went down, most people – including bettors and mainstream media people – thought “Where are they gonna get the points on offense?” So that’s been a huge surprise. I think everyone knew the defense would be solid, but they’ve even exceeded expectations.
This story was originally published January 12, 2016 at 11:57 AM with the headline "The Carolina Panthers are favored by 2.5 points over the Seahawks. Here’s why."