Cooper stretches US Senate race lead over Whatley to 11% in conservative think-tank poll
The fifth poll on the Roy Cooper-Michael Whatley U.S. Senate campaign from a conservative media outlet has the former two-term Democratic governor widening his lead to 11.1%.
The Carolina Journal poll, conducted by Harper Polling and released Thursday, has Cooper at 49.8% and Whatley at 38.7% in the race to succeed retiring Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis.
Whatley is chairman of the national Republican Party and former N.C. GOP Party chairman who is endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Political analysts predict the campaign will be the most expensive U.S. Senate race ever with overall spending - likely primarily from out-of-state contributions - exceeding $1 billion.
The poll, as typical, consists of 600 likely N.C. voters who were surveyed on May 10-11. For the latest poll, 73.8% of participants were white and 17.8% were Black. The poll has a margin of error of 4%.
The fourth poll, conducted in March, had Cooper ahead by a 48.9% to 41.1% margin. As recently as September, the margin was 46.1% to 41.9% in favor of Cooper.
Recent general election results of statewide races typically holds a 40% floor for Republican candidates.
About 3.7% of voters indicated they would vote for a third-party candidate, while 7.8% were undecided.
"Roy Cooper's double-digit lead over Michael Whatley is real - but it's not just a generic midterm backlash," said Donald Bryson, publisher of Carolina Journal and chief executive of the conservative think tank John Locke Foundation.
"Cooper's 24 years of statewide name recognition is a massive advantage that no challenger can easily overcome."
The Carolina Journal poll is the latest of five on the Cooper-Whatley race listed on the Real Clear Polling clearinghouse website that go back to March 16.
Cooper has a lead in all five ranging from 3% to the Carolina Journal's 11.1%. The average lead is 7.4%.
"The amazing thing about these polling results is the consistency," said Christopher Cooper, political science professor at Western Carolina University.
"The sponsor and the mode doesn't seem to matter much. In every one I've seen, Cooper is up, Whatley has low name recognition and independents are swinging heavily towards Cooper."
Name recognition challenge
Nealry 50% of Carolina Journal poll participants indicated a favorable view of Cooper, compared with 38.5% who expressed an unfavorable view. Whatley garnered a 25.4% favorability rating, while 21.9% shared an unfavorable view of him.
The April Elon University Poll found that 64% of the 800 respondents either knew "only a little" or "nothing" of Whatley. Just 11% said they knew "a great deal" about Whatley.
In contrast, the poll found 70% knew either "a great deal" or "some" about Cooper.
Cooper's reputation among white men, however, is underwater in the Carolina Journal poll: 49% of white male voters express an unfavorable view of Cooper, compared to 41% who view him favorably.
Bryson said that "Republicans (in N.C.) are fighting headwinds: President Trump's approval is underwater, while a majority of North Carolinians say the country is on the wrong track."
About 57% of Carolina Journal poll participants showed disapproval of Trump's overall performance in his second term, with only 41.5% approving.
"That combination makes this Senate race even more difficult for the party in the White House," Bryson said.
"Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the party in the White House, and this poll shows that dynamic is alive and well in North Carolina.
"With more voters saying the country is on the wrong track and the president underwater, the environment is naturally tilting toward the out-party."
Cooper said that "as Trump goes, so goes Whatley to some degree."
"But the lack of name recognition really is a distinct thing that's true for Whatley in a way that it's not true for other candidates."
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