Is North Carolina staying at home for coronavirus? A study breaks it down by county
It took stay-at-home orders issued by county officials — and eventually Gov. Roy Cooper — to get North Carolina residents to social distance as the number of coronavirus cases began to climb in March.
How far has the state come?
Real-time data collected by the University of Maryland show what impact social distancing measures and stay-at-home orders have had on travel behavior. Statewide, North Carolina’s social distancing index is among the nation’s worst — about 27% of residents were staying home on April 14.
On the same day in metropolitan areas with larger COVID-19 outbreaks like New York and D.C., data show between 47% and 54% of residents were at home.
Earlier patterns
During the first two weeks of March, most of North Carolina’s daily travel habits were up about 30%, according to The New York Times, which charted the change in travel distance for every state.
It wasn’t until social distancing orders came into play during the week of March 20 that travel went down 50% to 60%, the data showed.
At the time, North Carolina had at least 339 reported cases of coronavirus, The Raleigh News & Observer reported. There’s now more than 6,000.
Cooper shut down bars and restaurants, banned large gatherings and closed schools last month, eventually issuing a statewide stay-at-home order that’s in effect until the end of April.
But travel habits in rural counties were slow to adapt.
Bertie, Watauga and Scotland counties hadn’t changed at all as of March 23, the Times found — the average distance traveled in those rural communities actually increased between 20% and 30% after North Carolina announced its first case on March 3.
Research methods
University of Maryland researchers measured the impact on travel behavior across several metrics, including a social distancing index, percentage of residents staying home and average miles traveled per person.
The social distancing index is a score between 0 and 100, with zero meaning no social distancing is practiced and 100 indicating “all residents are staying at home and no visitors are entering the county,” according to the university.
The percentage of people staying home indicates members of that household took no trips more than a mile from their residence on that given day.
Researchers said the average miles traveled takes into account all modes of transportation — cars, trains, buses, planes, bikes and walking.
“COVID-19 is a complex challenge with broad-ranging impact,” said Darryll J. Pines, a professor at the university’s engineering school, which is measuring the data. “One of our strengths at UMD is our ability to bring together knowledge from varied disciplines — in this case, transportation engineering, public health, data analytics, and economics — to address problems that are complex by nature.”
County comparison
Urban counties with a higher number of reported COVID-19 cases — such as Wake, Durham, Mecklenburg, Orange and New Hanover — have the highest social distancing indexes for the month of April, according to the University of Maryland’s data. Their social distancing indexes measured between 56 and 61 between April 1 and April 14.
Dare County, home to the Outer Banks where no outsiders are being let in during the pandemic, is right behind Mecklenburg (59) with a score of 58.
Between 33% and 38% of residents in those counties were staying home in April, the map shows.
Rural Hyde, Caswell, Anson, Sampson and Washington had the lowest social distancing indexes — between 23 and 30, according to the data. Between 15% and 21% of their residents were staying home.
But there’s an important discrepancy to acknowledge.
“Certain communities, especially in the South and West, often have farther to travel to access essential businesses, such as grocery stores and doctor’s offices,” McClatchy News previously reported.
Data showing the average miles traveled per person in rural counties reflect that.
In Hyde, Washington and Sampson counties, residents were going between 36 and 53 miles on any given day this month, the University of Maryland’s research shows.
By comparison, residents in Wake and Mecklenburg counties were only traveling between 17 and 22 miles a day.
