Ready for reopening? Here’s what data shows about COVID trends in Mecklenburg
Mecklenburg has had nearly twice as many coronavirus cases and more deaths than any other North Carolina county. On Friday, statewide stay-at-home and business restrictions will ease and the Charlotte region will begin reopening.
N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper says data shows the state is ready to “cautiously and carefully” begin lifting some restrictions. Mecklenburg lifted its own local stay-at-home order on April 30, in favor of following statewide rules.
The planned phased reopening in North Carolina is based on seven “trend metrics” to determine if the state is slowing the spread of COVID-19. The (Raleigh) News & Observer has analyzed statewide data to track North Carolina’s trajectory.
Here’s how Mecklenburg is performing on the seven benchmarks.
COVID-LIKE SYMPTOMS IN THE E.R.
The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services is tracking the number of patients with COVID-like illnesses who go to hospital emergency rooms. The state uses a surveillance system similar to methods used during flu seasons. It works like an early detection system — monitoring trends of patients with symptoms like a fever, cough, or shortness of breath.
Before reopening, the state wants to see a continued decline in those reports of COVID-like illnesses. North Carolina had a steady decline in COVID-like cases at emergency departments for the first half of April, but has since reported a spike.
How we’re doing: Mecklenburg’s data comes from a 12-county area that makes up a regional hospital coalition. State surveillance data shows trends for each region over time. The percentage of emergency room visits by local patients with COVID-like symptoms spiked in late March to early April and appears to have plateaued in recent weeks.
LAB-CONFIRMED CASES OVER 14 DAYS
The highest number of new cases daily so far in Mecklenburg occurred April 6 with 86 new cases reported. Since then, daily reports of new cases have fluctuated widely. Looking at the trend over a longer length of time helps determine our local trajectory.
Before moving to phase one of the reopening plan, the state wants to see a decline or leveling in this trend.
How we’re doing: From April 25 to May 1, Mecklenburg saw a slight decline in the 7-day average of daily reported cases, county officials said on May 3.
The number of new cases identified each day has generally been on a downward trajectory for the last two weeks, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of state and county data. The health director has described the trend lately as “stable.” But there have been swings in the data. For example on April 22, county health officials reported 76 new cases — the second highest number of daily cases since the county’s first case in March. That spike was followed by several days of lower figures, including a low of 13 reported cases on April 26.
PERCENTAGE OF POSITIVE TESTS
Increased access to testing has led to more lab-confirmed cases. Calculating the percentage of positive tests helps add context to the higher case count as testing has ramped up. The state wants to see a decline in this trend.
How we’re doing: As of Tuesday, the county public health department has seen a slight decrease in this trend over the last 14 days. An average of 8% of people tested in Mecklenburg were positive for COVID-19 in the last week. That data only includes tests conducted by Atrium Health and Novant Health.
HOSPITALIZATIONS DUE TO COVID-19
Mecklenburg County is currently reporting about one in six patients with confirmed COVID-19 in the county has been hospitalized. The state needs to see a decline or leveling in the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 before reopening.
How we’re doing: Mecklenburg reported a decrease in this trend as of Tuesday. In the past week, an average of 65 people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 were hospitalized at acute care facilities.
That’s down from the county’s April 29 report of 70 people hospitalized on average in the previous week.
TESTS
The state has made it clear there needs to be increased testing for COVID-19 before moving to phase one in the plan to reopen. NC aims to administer 5,000 to 7,000 tests per day.
How we’re doing: North Carolina hit its goal of at least 5,000 daily tests for five of the last seven days.
Mecklenburg County collects more than 700 tests through Atrium Health and Novant Health daily, according to the county joint information center. The county has not consistently released information on testing to show the exact increase but officials have said access to testing has improved. And, on Tuesday, the health director said testing criteria would change to a “tiered” approach to further ramp up local testing.
CONTACT TRACING
The state wants to increase its contact tracing — identifying people who have been in contact with a patient who has tested positive for COVID-19. The state aims to have at least 500 contract tracers.
How we’re doing: The state has more than 250 contact tracers, according to DHHS. But the agency has not met its goal.
And Mecklenburg County has 68 employees who have been trained in contact tracing, according to the joint information center. Nearly 4,000 people statewide have applied, according to The (Raleigh) News & Observer.
PPE
The state aims to have a 30-day supply of all personal protective equipment on hand. The state estimates its days of supply based on average daily requests from the health care system.
How we’re doing: Mecklenburg County has “a sufficient amount of PPE supplies on hand,” according to the joint information center. The county has contacts with PPE manufacturers that will “get us through the summer,” the center said in a statement.
As of Tuesday, the state has at least a 30-day supply of face shields, gloves, N95 respirators and surgical and procedure masks. But the state has an estimated zero days of gowns on hand.
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