Did reopening worsen COVID-19 in Charlotte? Here’s what the data show.
Three key metrics used to measure the spread of COVID-19 in Charlotte show slight increases coinciding with less social distancing and looser restrictions on businesses and public activities.
The number of daily new coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and the percent of people tested who are positive have all increased slightly in Mecklenburg County over a two-week period, according to county officials and a Charlotte Observer analysis of data released Tuesday by the health department.
The figures give an early look at the possible effect of gradual reopening. The first phase of North Carolina’s reopening began May 8, when malls could welcome back customers and state and local parks reopened their gates. In the same time period, adherence to social distancing has decreased, according to county officials who use cell phone and other data to track mobility.
Mecklenburg public health Director Gibbie Harris has said the impact of each reopening phase will be seen in county-level data within about two weeks.
That time frame includes the onset of symptoms — which research suggests most often takes place within four to five days of exposure but can take up to two weeks — and the time it takes to access testing and get results. Typical turn around time for testing by hospital systems in Charlotte is one to two days, according to Harris.
So far, county data shows phase one of reopening has coincided with a slight negative impact on key metrics that had been trending in a good direction for several weeks as coronavirus stay-at-home orders and restrictions remained in place.
And Mecklenburg officials reported an additional seven coronavirus-related deaths Wednesday evening, bringing the total number of county residents who have died to 86.
Prior to reopening, Mecklenburg County officials had reported decreases in the average number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 complications and the percent of positive tests. Then, county officials said the growth rate of new cases identified through increased testing was stable.
Statewide, those metrics were used to gauge and justify North Carolina’s readiness for a phased reopening.
On Friday, the state moved to phase two, lifting the statewide stay-at-home order and allowing restaurants and salons to open with limited capacity. Bars, gyms and indoor entertainment facilities must remain closed.
The most recent data available in Mecklenburg includes new cases identified through May 24. Due to the COVID-19 incubation period, the data does not yet include people who may have contracted the virus over Memorial Day weekend or cases that could be specifically linked to exposure at newly-opened restaurants or salons.
COVID-19 data after reopening
Prior to phase one reopening, county health officials said data showed a slowing spread of coronavirus locally, partly measured by a decrease over time in the percentage of positive tests.
Percentage of positive COVID-19 tests
▪ Before Phase One reopening: The weekly average percent of positive coronavirus tests was highest in mid-April, county data show. At the time, testing was limited to people in high-risk categories and those with severe symptoms. As more people were tested and more testing supply was available, the percent of positive tests decreased.
The percent of positive tests, on average over a 7-day period ending April 29, was 9% — down from nearly 12% near the start of the virus spread in Charlotte.
Early to mid-May figures showed a slight decrease and the percent dropped to as low as 6.3%. Those test results include cases of people whose exposure mostly occurred prior to the phased reopening.
▪ After reopening: The most recent data shows a slight increase. From May 17 to May 24, the percent of positive tests averaged 7.4%.
Average number of hospitalizations
About 1 in 8 people with COVID-19 in Mecklenburg have needed hospitalization, county data show. People age 60 or older are far more likely to suffer life-threatening complications. A rise in hospitalizations began in mid-May.
▪ Before reopening: The average number of people hospitalized had been trending down and was at its highest in early April in Charlotte. In the week before reopening, an average of 57 people were hospitalized with COVID-19.
▪ After reopening: Immediately following phase one, hospitalizations continued on a downward trajectory. After the incubation period passed for people possibly exposed during reopening, hospitalizations increased slightly, county data show.
Between May 18 and May 25, an average of 70 people with COVID-19 have needed hospitalization, according to Mecklenburg data. And county officials last week identified the area’s first death of a person with no known underlying conditions, a 43-year-old diagnosed with COVID.
The number of people needing hospital care remains lower now than in early April when coronavirus was spreading more rapidly. But the reversal of Mecklenburg’s downward trend, coinciding with reopening, is not a good sign.
“Any uptick is cause for concern,” Harris said last week. “… We’re watching these over a 14-day period because that’s the life cycle of the infection.”
New lab-confirmed cases reported daily
Health officials have warned that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase as more testing is done. But the local health department is analyzing the trend and pace of new cases to gauge the spread of the virus in Charlotte. Prior to reopening, the trend was “stable.”
▪ Before Phase One reopening: The number of new cases identified each day had generally been on a slightly downward trajectory for the two weeks before reopening, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of state and county data.
▪ After reopening: Mecklenburg has had its five largest single-day case increases within the past two weeks. In that same time period, county officials have significantly ramped up testing.
That’s one reason health officials have pointed to percentage of positive test results as an important marker. But Mecklenburg has seen an increase there too.
This story was originally published May 27, 2020 at 10:53 AM.
.jpg)