‘Stability is fragile’ — But is COVID-19 getting better in Charlotte? Here’s the data.
N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper again announced he will delay the move into Phase 3 of the state’s reopening plan, citing concerns that key metrics — though moving in the right direction — are not where they need to be.
Modest improvements or stable coronavirus trends are beginning to emerge in Charlotte and surrounding communities, the Observer has reported. However, that’s a relatively new development for a region that, for months, has suffered spikes each time restrictions have been eased.
“While we are seeing stabilization of our numbers, that doesn’t mean we can let up,” Cooper said in a news conference Wednesday.
“We know the stability is fragile. And these trends can change quickly if we let down our guards.”
Under continued Phase 2, indoor gatherings are still limited to 10 people under Phase 2, which casts further uncertainty for the more than 300 delegates expected to visit Charlotte for the Republican National Convention in late August.
“The RNC has changed its mind an awful lot,” Cooper said Wednesday. “We remain ready and willing to work with them on a safe convention.”
Cooper extended Phase 2 for another five weeks, asking North Carolina residents to slow the spread of COVID-19 by following social distancing guidelines and wearing a mask in public.
The governor and state health officials have largely based their reopening plan on several key metrics, including the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests, coronavirus hospitalizations and daily new cases.
After months of troubling trends in the Charlotte area, all three of those metrics recently began moving in the right direction locally.
Still, some experts agree it’s too soon to relax coronavirus restrictions.
Novant Health Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Sid Fletcher told the Observer Wednesday it’s a positive sign that Mecklenburg’s percentage of positive COVID-19 tests is trending downward. The reason for the downward trend, he says, is because people are following coronavirus restrictions, including social distancing recommendations and mask orders. Those restrictions were further strengthened recently with a ban on late-night alcohol sales.
“We’re improving,” Fletcher said Wednesday ahead of Cooper’s announcement.
“We’re not where we need to be at all, but I think we’re optimistic because we’re moving in the correct direction.”
The virus remains extremely infectious, he said.
“There’s still a large percentage of the population who has not contracted the virus, that are susceptible to get it,” Fletcher warned.
On the heels of Cooper’s announcement, here’s a look at the latest COVID-19 trends in Mecklenburg County.
Percent of positive coronavirus tests
Over much of July, the percentage of positive tests began stabilizing. The positivity rate began to show a slight downward trajectory by late-July.
Those improvements were preceded by a troubling trend: Increases in the positivity rate, coinciding with the first phase of reopening in early May. That happened even though testing, overall, was ramping up which health experts say often can lead to a decrease in the positivity rate — but only if the spread of a virus is well-contained.
Over the last two weeks, Mecklenburg has seen a slight decrease in the percentage of positive tests, with an average of 8.9% of people tested receiving positive COVID-19 results as of August 2, according to county public health.
Hospitalizations
Lately, the number of people with coronavirus complications needing hospital-level care has been modestly decreasing. That’s a welcomed change after the region saw a steady increase over the last three months.
Before, the average number of people hospitalized per week grew gradually worse as North Carolina moved further away from the strictest stay-at-home orders. Phase 1 reopening reversed an earlier — and brief — downward trajectory of hospitalizations.
Shortly after moving into Phase 2, local hospitalizations surpassed the previous one-day high of 111 COVID-19 patients, set on April 9.
Mecklenburg reported a record-high of hospitalized COVID-19 patients on July 26 with 210 patients.
But since then, Mecklenburg has seen a slight improvement.
According to the latest data available, an average of 183 people, per day, have been hospitalized with COVID-19 locally. That’s down from a weekly average of 196 in late July.
New lab-confirmed cases
The average number of new COVID-19 cases has been trending up for much of the summer.
And county health officials said the growing case count and increased amount of testing does not capture “the true burden of COVID-19 in community” as many people who are infected have not been tested.
The county’s daily report hit a high on July 2, with 419 new cases among Mecklenburg residents.
But in recent weeks, this measure of the virus’ toll has begun to turn around.
Since mid-July, the seven day average of daily case counts has been trending down.
On Sunday, the county reported 128 new COVID-19 cases locally. That marks the lowest daily count of new cases since May 31, according to health department data.
This story was originally published August 6, 2020 at 7:00 AM.
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