Latest data show Mecklenburg COVID-19 caseload rising again after months of progress

For the first time in more than one month, the number of daily new COVID-19 cases found in Mecklenburg County surpassed 200.

Those increases, recorded on Thursday and Friday in state health data, come as North Carolina health officials warn coronavirus trends are beginning to move in the wrong direction.

While day-to-day case counts can fluctuate widely, the overall trend — measured by taking the average number of new cases over a 14-day period — is a better indication of the spread of the virus. In Mecklenburg, that figure peaked in July and fell steadily in August and most of September.

But by early October, a reversal of the promising trend emerged.

And, after nearly two months of the county seeing a stable or declining positivity rate, the latest data shows a slight uptick over the last week.

The positivity rate — or the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests — averaged 5.1% in the past week, according to the latest county health data released Friday. The number had only recently dropped below 5%, a threshold widely set by world health leaders as a signal of when fewer coronavirus-related restrictions can be safely implemented.

Based on an Observer analysis of data from N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, the average number of new cases detected daily in Mecklenburg was 143 over a 14-day period ending Friday. That’s still lower than the peak point in July — when more than 300 cases, on average, were reported daily. But the data could signal concerns as colder weather and flu season approach quickly.

On Thursday and Friday, DHHS reported 256 and 205 new cases, respectively, in Mecklenburg. Those are the highest single-day jumps locally since July, and similar trends are playing out across the state, North Carolina health officials warned this week. (On Sept. 25, the state reported what would have been a daily record for the county, 532 new cases. But only 141 of those were recent positives, and the rest were backlogged results.)

Gov. Roy Cooper and DHHS Secretary Dr. Mandy Cohen on Thursday described the most-recent observations as trends going in the “wrong direction,” The (Raleigh) News & Observer reported. Cooper and Cohen “issued a more urgent call for people to comply with basic safety protocols, including wearing a face mask and avoiding large gatherings,” the N&O reported.

Mecklenburg’s cumulative case total hit 31,279 on Friday, a rate of about 282 infections for every 10,000 residents. The death toll eached 375 county residents on Thursday evening.

It is too early to gauge how Phase Three — which allowed long-shuttered bars, movie theaters, amusement parks and other venues to reopen at limited capacity in early October — may have sparked a resurgence of cases in and around Charlotte.

For now, the number of people requiring intensive care remains stable in Mecklenburg, even as patients from western parts of North Carolina are diverted to the Charlotte and Winston-Salem regions, Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said Tuesday.

Yet the possibility of more infectious flare-ups could threaten what’s seen as “fragile” progress in flattening the curve. Earlier this week, the Observer reported that hospitalizations and case tallies are soaring in surrounding counties.

Testing at UNCC, CMS

At UNC Charlotte, all students living in three undisclosed residence halls must get tested for COVID-19, university officials said Friday in an attempt to “help mitigate spread of the disease.”

Later this month, the county health department also will offer free, one-time coronavirus tests to all Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools employees. Raynard Washington, Mecklenburg’s deputy health director, warned that a negative test did not mean employees could not later become infected.

CMS will begin its largest phase to date of bringing students back to the classroom on Nov. 2. Children in grades K-5 are expected to return to in-person learning on that date. So far, the district has only brought back students in pre-K and roughly 1,200 students with special needs for in-person learning.

The district plans to ask families and students to self-report symptoms as part of the screening process for a return to in-person instruction, which some employees have criticized as insufficient.

Mecklenburg COVID-19 update

As of Oct. 14 — the last date demographic data was publicly available — county coronavirus data show:

▪ During the past week, an average of 86 individuals with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 infections were hospitalized at acute care facilities in Mecklenburg County. Health officials say this represents a “fairly stable” trend over the past two weeks.

▪ Most people — almost 60% of more than 30,700 cases — were adults under the age of 40. People older than 60 account for just over 12% of all cases reported but about 85% of all deaths.

▪ After symptoms of coronavirus subside, a person diagnosed may be “released” from isolation under CDC guidelines. In Mecklenburg, roughly 80% of the people who tested positive have met the criteria to end isolation, according to local health officials.

▪ About 1 in 20 people diagnosed were hospitalized due to their illness. People age 60 or older were more likely to need hospital care compared to younger people with coronavirus.

▪ More than half half of those people who have died from COVID-19 locally were connected to “active outbreaks” in long-term care facilities or nursing homes. Still, five of the 374 deaths recorded as of Oct. 14 were among people who had no known underlying conditions. Forty-nine of the people who died were between the ages of 40 to 59, and four people were under the age of 40.

Staff writer Annie Ma contributed to this report.

This story was originally published October 16, 2020 at 3:12 PM.