CDC model projects 1,100 more will die in NC during January from COVID-19
A recent national projection model by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) forecasts that 1,100 more people may die from COVID-19 in North Carolina in the first three weeks of January following the Christmas and New Year’s holidays.
The model projects that the state will reach a death toll of 8,000 by Jan. 23. Total deaths reported by the state as of Saturday were 6,892.
December was the deadliest month in North Carolina for the virus on record, with 1,487 deaths reported by the state that month.
The national model, which examines all American states and territories, predicts that 12,400 to 24,300 new deaths will likely be reported in the week ending Jan. 23. The model predicts that a total of 383,000 to 424,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
The forecast combines independent forecasts from universities and other models into an aggregate model that makes various assumptions about levels of social distancing and other factors, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior, according to the CDC.
A two-day total of 144 deaths were reported Saturday, adding to a total that is inching toward 7,000, according to the state Department of Health Human Services on Saturday.
DHHS Secretary Mandy Cohen highlighted the harrowing numbers to start 2021, with a record of more than 9,000 daily cases reported on the first day of the year.
“We begin 2021 in our most dangerous position in this pandemic. We have critically high rates of spread in much of our state,” Cohen said in a news release. “I encourage you to avoid getting together indoors with anyone who doesn’t live with you. If you plan to see other people keep it outside and very small. Wear a mask the whole time. We must do all that we can to protect one another.”
Death demographics
Of the state’s dead due to complications from the virus: 60% were age 75 and older, 23% were between 65 and 74 years old, 14% were between 50 and 64 years old and 4% were between 25 and 49 years old, according to state data. Nine deaths were of people between 18 and 24 years old and and one person who died was between 5 and 9 years old.
Males have been 52% of deaths and females have been 48%. Gender data is missing for 20 individuals.
By race and ethnicity, 64% were white, 27% were Black, 1% were American Indian or Alaska Native, 1% were Asian or Pacific Islander and 7% were classified as other. This data is missing for 6% of deaths reported.
Hispanics accounted for 8% of deaths, but ethnicity is missing for 860 of those reported.
This story was originally published January 2, 2021 at 4:30 PM with the headline "CDC model projects 1,100 more will die in NC during January from COVID-19."
