COVID infections slowing in Mecklenburg as experts closely watch mutant strain

Mecklenburg’s coronavirus trends continue to show improvement following a holiday-induced spike in infections and hospitalizations.

Yet deaths from the virus — which researchers describe as a lagging indicator during the pandemic — remain high. With two days left in January, it’s already the deadliest month since the first COVID-19 case was reported locally in mid-March.

County health officials say 44 residents have died from the virus in the last week alone. And from Jan. 16 to 22, there were 43 deaths from COVID-19. The week prior, there were 61.

“Our numbers still remain high — in fact quite a bit higher than they were during the peaks in the spring and summer of 2020,” Novant Health infectious diseases specialist Dr. David Priest told reporters Friday.

On average, Mecklenburg is logging about 680 new cases each day — a decrease of about 23% over the last two weeks, an Observer analysis of state public health data show.

The county has moved past its coronavirus peak, reflecting the greatest strain on hospital resources, Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said in a press conference Friday afternoon. Atrium Health and Novant Health had expected to see a drop in their patient census by the second week in February, and that downward trajectory is already underway, she said.

Yet more in-person gatherings — and an expected return to the classroom for Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools and local colleges — could possibly trigger more cases if safety guidelines aren’t followed.

“As folks start moving about more in our community, as we move into the spring, that could help (or) that could hurt,” Harris said. “We know what will help keep our numbers down, and that’s what we need to stay focused on.”

Harris on Thursday extended her public health directive to Feb. 28, urging residents to stay home as much as possible and avoid interacting with people beyond their households. But the modified version, which took effect Friday, removed part of the directive that specified schools should be fully virtual.

Mutated virus

The UK variant — with North Carolina health officials reporting the first known case, involving a Mecklenburg resident, last weekend — has sparked new worries another surge could soon occur. On Thursday, the United States saw its first case of the South Africa mutated strain, reported in South Carolina.

“Continuing masking, social distancing and hand hygiene remain critically important while we get more and more people vaccinated across our communities,” Priest said. “We are not surprised in the least — or caught off guard — these versions of the virus exist. It would be more surprising if we didn’t discover mutated versions of the virus, based on how RNA viruses behave.”

Though hospitalizations are declining, Harris said internal COVID-19 forecasts do not yet reflect how quickly intensive care units might fill up with patients infected with the new virus strains.

The testing infrastructure that hospitals and local health departments in North Carolina rely on is not equipped to routinely screen for mutated strains, the Observer reported this week.

Harris said there is likely more than one case of the variant circulating by now in Mecklenburg. But little is known about the first infection, beyond that it happened in early January.

“To be perfectly honest, that person was not terribly helpful with information...That individual refused to take our calls,” Harris said of the health department’s contact tracing efforts. That makes travel history and related virus transmission an unanswered question.

The latest data

The Charlotte area crossed the 50,000 mark of vaccine first doses administered this week, state reports of county data show. Of those, close to 12,000 people have been given a second COVID-19 dose in Mecklenburg. Those figures do not yet include people vaccinated at Bank of America Stadium, which kicked off Friday.

Mecklenburg has logged 84,990 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported Friday afternoon. County officials say 770 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications.

As of Jan. 27 — the last date data was publicly available — county coronavirus data show:

▪ The average positivity rate dropped to 11.9% in the past week.

The percent of positive tests is still more than double the 5% threshold the World Health Organization suggests that officials use when relaxing coronavirus restrictions. The percent of positive COVID-19 tests rose as high as 16% this month in Mecklenburg.

▪ The average number of infected individuals needing hospital-level care declined to 420 in the past week, compared to the steepest average patient count of 540 on Jan. 17.

The daily hospital census dropped to 386 on Wednesday, the lowest volume seen since late December.

▪ There are 61 active COVID-19 outbreaks at long-term care facilities, and three childcare and school settings have clusters. Just under half of those people who have died from COVID-19 locally were connected to such outbreaks.

Hannah Smoot contributed to this report.

This story was originally published January 29, 2021 at 2:43 PM.