Charlotte-area positivity rate below 10%. Here’s the latest COVID vaccine, hospital data

Mecklenburg County’s average COVID-19 positivity rate dropped to 9.1% in the past week, marking the first time since late November that it’s been consistently in the single digits.

The metric, an indicator of coronavirus spread, decreased by nearly 42% within the last month, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of public health data. The percent of positive tests had dropped to 4 to 5% on average during September and October but rose to 16% in the first week of 2021.

The lower rate means the virus is not circulating at the same alarming pace observed in the aftermath of Christmas and New Year’s celebrations, which ultimately prompted a surge of hospitalizations and deaths in the Charlotte area. But the the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests still exceeds the World Health Organization’s 5% threshold to guide decisions about loosening coronavirus-related restrictions.

Improved coronavirus conditions are fragile, Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris has warned. Large Super Bowl watch parties, for example, could fuel new infections — and the threat from new, more transmissible coronavirus variants remains to be seen.

“We continue to remind people that we have lots of virus in our community,” Harris said during a press conference this week.

“There is every opportunity for you to be exposed when you go out of your home ... It really does put you at risk, which puts the others that you love and that you’re around at risk.”

Mecklenburg has recorded 92,022 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported Friday morning. County officials say 818 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications, with almost half linked to outbreaks at long-term care facilities like nursing homes.

Hospitalizations

The average number of people requiring hospital-level care fell to 286 in the past week, a 32% decrease over the last 14 days, according to an Observer analysis.

State health data show hundreds of ventilators and in-patient hospital beds are available in the Metrolina Healthcare Preparedness Coalition, which includes Mecklenburg and surrounding counties. Still, the supply of intensive care unit beds remains tight.

Better or worse: Hospitalizations have steadily decreased from mid-January, when Mecklenburg hit a peak of 540 coronavirus patients. Mecklenburg has yet to return to pre-Christmas levels, with Atrium Health and Novant Health reporting at the time fewer than 250 coronavirus patients on average.

July peak: Mecklenburg’s hospitalizations also remain elevated compared to the summer peak, when the average patient count was 198.

New cases

Mecklenburg is adding about 425 new infections each day — that’s a significant decrease compared to the highest average caseload, 936, seen one month ago. The county and state lack the screening infrastructure to routinely identify if those cases are mutated strains from the United Kingdom, South Africa or Brazil.

Demographic breakdown: Adults ages 20-39 account for 42.1% of all cases since March but less than 2.5% of deaths in the community (excluding long-term care facilities), Mecklenburg officials say. Adults ages 40-59 have had 28.6% of cases but account for 18.3% of community deaths.

Meanwhile, adults ages 60 and older make up 13.7% of all infections but 79.1% of community deaths.

More context: The demand for COVID-19 testing plummeted following holiday gatherings, making it difficult for health officials to know how many people are unknowingly spreading the virus through asymptomatic transmission.

On average, around 3,800 tests daily were administered in Mecklenburg in the past week. Two weeks ago, the testing demand was about 4,880 — and one month ago, it was more than 5,000. Days before Christmas, nearly 5,500 tests were administered daily.

COVID vaccines

Only 7% of Mecklenburg residents have received their first shot of the COVID-19 vaccine, Harris said this week. Mecklenburg County Public Health on Friday opened vaccine appointments for Group 3, slated to start for teachers on Feb. 24. Atrium and Novant are continuing to hold mass vaccination events, though supplies are extremely limited.

As of Friday, here’s the latest on vaccine distribution throughout the region, according to N.C. DHHS:

Mecklenburg

First doses: 82,904

Second doses: 31,832

Union

First doses: 18,848

Second doses: 7,862

Gaston

First doses: 19,740

Second doses: 7,840

Cabarrus

First doses: 16,628

Second doses: 7,401

Iredell

First doses: 15,810

Second doses: 6,665

Rowan

First doses: 10,683

Second doses: 4,141

Cleveland

First doses: 9,246

Second doses: 2,276

Lincoln

First doses: 7,544

Second doses: 2,555

Stanly

First doses: 6,359

Second doses: 1,360

This story was originally published February 12, 2021 at 1:00 PM.