Model says NC is past peak for coronavirus deaths. But these 6 states aren’t there yet.
North Carolina has passed its peak daily COVID-19 death total, according to a projection model from the University of Washington.
The university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation says North Carolina saw its peak late last week.
According to N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, the coronavirus killed 29 people on April 13 and 23 people on April 16. Daily deaths reported by the state have fallen ever since, data show.
Only six states — Maryland, Rhode Island, Utah, Iowa and North and South Dakota — have yet to reach their maximum daily COVID-19 deaths, institute projections show.
But other COVID-19 projection models aren’t so favorable to North Carolina. And depending on the quality of input data and criteria used, projections vary greatly.
Mecklenburg Couny officials, for example, recently cited a University of Pennsylvania model that shows the county will hit its peak number of daily cases on June 8.
Gibbie Harris, Mecklenburg County’s health director, said Mecklenburg chose to use the Pennsylvania model because it was more cautious. The Washington model, she said, places a lot of emphasis on effective social distancing.
When will NC reopen?
The University of Washington’s health institute also found that after May 11, “relaxing social distancing may be possible (in North Carolina) with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size.”
Last week, Gov. Roy Cooper said efforts like his March 27 stay-at-home order have helped to limit the virus’ spread. The order is set to expire April 29. But North Carolina or its cities and counties may choose to extend or keep parts of the stay-at-home order. Cooper has said certain criteria must be met before the state can safely reopen.
Before that happens, Cooper said the state needs better coronavirus testing. It also has to better track the spread of the virus and must see cases, hospitalizations and deaths trend downward, according to the governor.
Steve Wiseman contributed
This story was originally published April 20, 2020 at 8:27 AM.
