Game over if a Democrat wins both Iowa and New Hampshire? What primary history reveals
New Hampshire and Iowa are the first states to vote in the 2020 presidential campaign — Iowa with its caucuses last week and New Hampshire with its first-in-the-nation primary Tuesday.
Those early results are the first real data in the race. But do Iowa and New Hampshire predict who will end up as the party’s nominee, and would a candidate who wins both be unstoppable?
That’s of particular interest to former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Buttigieg narrowly holds the state delegate count lead in Iowa with 100 percent of precincts reporting, according to the Iowa Democratic Party, and he has claimed victory in the state. Sanders declared himself Iowa’s winner as well, pointing to a lead in the raw number of supporters in the popular vote.
Sanders has also requested a recanvass of the state’s messy, delayed results, hoping the process could push him past Buttigieg in the delegate count.
What does history tell us about Iowa and New Hampshire winners?
In the last 40 years, no Democrat (or Republican) has won both contests and then failed to win the party’s nomination.
In the Democratic primary, the last presidential nominee to win both states in a competitive race was John Kerry in 2004 when he was a senator from Massachusetts, according to a 2016 NPR analysis of past races.
Former Vice President Al Gore won both states in 2000 and Jimmy Carter won both before as well — first in 1976 and then in 1980.
But just as often, different candidates have won each state: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won Iowa in 2016 while Sanders won New Hampshire that year. In 2008, Clinton (then a senator from New York) and Barack Obama (then a senator from Illinois) split the two early states — Obama claiming Iowa and Clinton snagging New Hampshire.
The last Republican non-incumbent to win both states was Gerald Ford in 1976, and he went on to be the nominee.
Can a Democrat win without an Iowa or New Hampshire victory?
There’s only one historical precedent in the last four decades.
Bill Clinton won the Democratic nomination in 1992 after an Iowa senator won that state’s caucuses and a senator from neighboring Massachusetts won New Hampshire.
Who’s most likely to win Democrats’ 2020 primary right now?
Just before New Hampshire voting begins, FiveThirtyEight puts the odds of Sanders winning the primary at roughly 50 percent, while putting former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances at 1 in 5 and Buttigieg’s at 1 in 20.
But another scenario is more likely than a Biden or Buttigieg outright win, according to the FiveThirtyEight analysis: There’s a 25 percent chance no one wins more than half of pledged delegates, which could mean a protracted race that drags into July — and a brokered convention.
This story was originally published February 10, 2020 at 2:57 PM with the headline "Game over if a Democrat wins both Iowa and New Hampshire? What primary history reveals."
