Russia’s nuclear forces are on high alert. Here’s what that means, experts say
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he put his nuclear forces in a “special regime of combat duty” on Feb. 27.
As Ukraine and Russia met at the Belarusian border for their first direct talks on Feb. 28, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced more personnel had been added to its nuclear command posts, USA Today reported.
According to The Associated Press, “the high alert status applies to all their components: the forces that oversee land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles, and the fleet of nuclear-capable strategic bombers.”
While it isn’t clear if “any nuclear-armed aircraft could already be in the air around Ukraine,” AP reported, “the move is a clear escalation.”
“Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major NATO countries are making aggressive statements about our country,” Putin said, according to Vice News. “So I order to move Russia’s deterrence forces to a special regime of duty.”
In a Feb. 24 speech, Putin warned thatany interference in the attacks would lead to “consequences you have ever seen,” AP reported.
Putin’s decision is “the first time a recognized nuclear state has overtly moved to such a state of preparedness” since the Cold War, according to the Financial Times.
What does Putin’s announcement on nuclear weapons actually mean?
“Putin’s goal has been to try to create some sense of anxiety in the West or concern that perhaps he might exercise that option,” Stephen Flanagan, a senior political scientist at the global think tank RAND Corporation, told McClatchy News.
Flanagan described Putin’s announcement as “mainly saber rattling” and an effort to try to undermine the cohesion among the U.S. and Europeans countries.
Samuel Charap, also a senior political scientist at RAND, says that the announcement is “reinforcing the ability to actually employ nuclear weapons.”
While some international spectators have been worrying about the potential for World War III, Charap says this change of nuclear alert is mostly “signaling.”
“It doesn’t mean that they’re trivial,” he added. “But it doesn’t mean that we’re on the verge of an imminent world war.”
“It’s signaling, sending a message. it’s incredibly dangerous — don’t get me wrong, you know. It’s invoking the ultimate threat,” Charap said. But, “nuclear weapons are weapons that are most useful as threats. Because actually using them has lots of consequences that most governments don’t want.”
What should we expect next?
“We won’t really know for the next several days what this means,” Flanagan said.
In the next few days, it’s possible Russians might deploy strategic bombers in and around Europe and ballistic missile submarines might go to sea, he said.
“Certainly, there are things that the U.S. can do,” he said. “The United States periodically operates something that are called bomber Task Force missions.”
These missions, Flanagan explained, are designed to remind the Russians that “with regard to the collective defense commitment that the United States makes to its allies, that that includes not only conventional forces, but potentially if warranted, the possible use of nuclear force.”
White House press secretary Jen Psaki told MSNBC that the U.S. has its “own preparations” and “own ability and capacity to defend the United States,” but the country has not changed its alert levels. Psaki said the Biden administration wants to “reduce the rhetoric and deescalate” the situation.
“The Russians – President Putin included as the leader of Russia – have committed to taking steps to reduce nuclear threats,” she said. “Everybody knows that that is not a war that can be won.”
Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine on three fronts early Thursday, Feb. 24, “bombarding cities, towns and villages” as forces advanced toward the capital of Kyiv.
As of 7:30 a.m. ET on Feb. 28, at least 352 Ukrainian citizens have been killed, Ukraine’s interior ministry said, according to McClatchy News, but U.N. officials believe the totals are “considerably higher.”
Russia’s advances continued Sunday on Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, after previous attacks on airfields and fuel facilities, as well as its capital city, Kyiv, according to The Associated Press.
This story was originally published February 28, 2022 at 1:38 PM with the headline "Russia’s nuclear forces are on high alert. Here’s what that means, experts say."
