Fact check: Did ‘bookies’ say Trump was a 97% favorite to win on election night?
Multiple oddsmakers have refuted President Donald Trump’s claim about his advantage over Joe Biden on election night.
“At 10 p.m. on Election Evening, we were at 97% win with the so-called ‘bookies,’” Trump tweeted Wednesday.
What did the oddsmakers actually say?
Trump became oddmakers’ favorite as Election Day turned into night, but it wasn’t the massive advantage he claims.
Action Network said Trump’s odds to defeat Biden, who has since won the election, were at 74.2% at 10 p.m. Nov. 3. Those were his best odds of the week.
His probability through US-Bookies.com at 10 p.m. implied he had a 71% chance to win.
Odds shifted toward Trump following early vote projections from Florida and Pennsylvania, with the latter state eventually going to Biden in a race that Trump has contested for weeks, McClatchy News reported.
The odds began to shift back toward Biden late on election night as Arizona’s results trickled in, coupled with Georgia’s votes looking closer than initially thought. Biden would go on to win both states.
Biden’s probability with oddsmakers grew substantially the day after the election, as more mail-in ballots in several key states were recorded.
OddsChecker.com snapped back at the president Wednesday while referring to its own projections.
“Seeing as we’re the experts in this, here’s the truth. Just after midnight your odds implied a 69% chance that you’d win,” the website said.
Trump’s tweet was “unclear,” according to Casino.org, which could not find a site with the odds Trump cited.
A spokesperson for US-Bookies said the market fluctuated so much because of the actions from bettors.
“The surprise in 2016 led to another factor at play this year, as many bettors did not want to miss the boat the second time around when early signals came out favoring Trump,” the US-Bookies spokesperson said. “With early numbers showing a Trump lead, Biden remained in play in the betting markets because bettors were processing the fact that the nature of this year’s election was likely to show Trump favored early before all votes were able to be counted. This is why Trump’s chances never came close to 97%.”
Election results have been certified in all 50 states. The Electoral College will meet Monday to cast their votes, and Biden will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2021.
This story was originally published December 10, 2020 at 11:34 AM with the headline "Fact check: Did ‘bookies’ say Trump was a 97% favorite to win on election night?."