Will Charlotte City Council’s chaotic spring affect outcomes of 2025 election?
Drama on the Charlotte City Council and a long-awaited referendum have the potential to shake up local government in this year’s elections.
The 2025 local election cycle launched Monday with the start of candidate filing for September primaries and the November general election. Recent municipal elections have been marked by low voter turnout and incumbents easily keeping their seats.
But a flurry of controversies — including a closed-door settlement with the city’s chief of police and a City Council member’s indictment — hit Charlotte leaders leading up to election season. A referendum to increase the county’s sales tax rate to pay for transportation projects may also influence local races, political leaders, strategists and experts say.
While the status quo could hold, they say, there’s also potential for more competitive races.
“It’s not good news for incumbents on City Council,” UNC Charlotte political scientist Eric Heberlig said. “Whether people’s questions and uncertainty and unhappiness will translate in a way that impacts the election results is less clear.”
Will voters remember chaotic spring on Election Day?
The Charlotte City Council’s controversies dominated the conversation about local politics in recent months.
News broke in early May of council members approving a six-figure settlement with Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Chief Johnny Jennings. Weeks of unanswered questions followed, and Council member Victoria Watlington alleged “unethical, immoral, and frankly, illegal activities occurring within City government.”
Later in May, Council member Tiawana Brown was indicted on federal fraud charges over alleged misuse of pandemic relief loan money.
The controversies have Charlotte voters feeling “fatigued,” said Kyle Kirby, chair of the Mecklenburg County Republican Party. He believes the Jennings settlement will be a major issue with voters in upcoming elections.
“That’s a bipartisan issue that a number of people are upset about, and it just has to do with transparency,” he said.
People are starting to pay more attention to what’s going on in city government, CharlotteEAST executive director Greg Asciutto said. But Asciutto, whose organization works to increase civic engagement, also wonders if recent events will fade from people’s memories and be replaced by other news cycles before its time to cast ballots.
“Does that turn into somebody changing their vote or getting them to vote at all? I think that’s the issue right at the crux,” he said.
Mecklenburg County Democratic Party Chair Wesley Harris said controversy can either turn people off from local politics or energize them to get more involved.
“If you don’t like what’s going on, there is a solution to that. It’s getting involved and making sure your voice is heard,” he said.
Others, such as Action NC political director Robert Dawkins, are less convinced recent controversies will make a difference come Election Day. He said residents in Brown’s west Charlotte District 3 told him they plan to stick with her despite her indictment, noting her reputation for being engaged and responsive with constituents.
“She shows up with them,” he said.
How will transportation referendum impact 2025 election?
Another anticipated key issue for the 2025 election is the countywide sales tax referendum for road, rail and bus projects. Mecklenburg finally received the General Assembly’s blessing for the plan in early summer, and county commissioners are expected to formally put it on the November ballot in August.
Local political strategist Bryan Holladay predicts the referendum will “bring attention that we are in an election cycle.” While it’s not guaranteed to drive voter turnout, it could if candidates make their position on the plan a key part of their platform, he said.
“If any candidate decides they want to differentiate themselves and say they’re not supporting transit, that will be an interesting indicator to see what will happen in the primary itself,” he said.
Heberlig agrees the plan could be a driver for turnout if there’s division and debate about it.
“Something like transportation and a referendum on taxes to pay for it is going to generate interest from a lot more voters than, you know, the typical city council agenda,” he said.
Asciutto wonders whether the referendum will “get buried” until after the September primaries because it won’t be on the ballot till the general election.
“I genuinely don’t know if that’s going to drive people out,” he said.
Longtime Democratic campaign manager Dan McCorkle said the fate of the referendum, and its impact on other races, will be decided by how it’s marketed to voters.
“It depends on who is running the ‘yes’ campaign and who is running the ‘no’ campaign,” he said.
Harris expects the referendum will draw more attention to the general election than an average municipal election year.
“It’ll be a very strong debate,” he said.
What other issues matter to voters?
Despite attention on recent controversies and transportation, there are other issues on voters’ minds heading into election season.
Many in east Charlotte, Asciutto said, are primarily concerned with the cost of living and crime, as well as issues stemming from homelessness and a lack of public amenities. Eastside voters who are more engaged with local government are also interested in small business development and the level of influence major business leaders and developers have on local officials, he added.
Dawkins said the “main concern is affordable housing” in many of the low- and moderate-income communities across Charlotte he works in. People are concerned about the impacts of rapid growth and gentrification as new developments change the character of their neighborhoods and make them less affordable, he said.
Republicans want to put a focus on the “single-party control” by Democrats in local government, Kirby said. Democrats hold nine of 11 seats on the Charlotte City Council, the mayor’s office and every seat on the Mecklenburg County commission. The GOP has struggled in recent local elections to make headway with Charlotte voters.
“They’ve got to look at whether or not their lives are better off under continuous Democrat control,” he said.
Maria Elena Conaway, vice chair of the Mecklenburg Republicans, said Charlotte’s Latino community is particularly concerned about accountability, crime and education.
“We want stability,” she said.
Voter turnout expectations
Regardless of what emerges as the key issues in the 2025 election cycle, past elections show candidates face an uphill battle just to get voters to the polls.
Only 15.54% of eligible Mecklenburg voters participated in the 2023 general election, and 4.92% of voters in the September primary that year. In the 2022 July city council election, 12.06% of eligible voters cast ballots, with 14.07% voter turnout in the May primary that year. And 2019 saw 17.11% general election turnout and 21.65% turnout in the September primary.
Turnout in municipal elections is driven down by transplants to Charlotte who aren’t invested in local issues in addition to a frequent lack of competitive races due to Democratic dominance, Holladay said. He questions whether the recent controversies will break through with the average resident enough to impact turnout.
“The people who vote already know who their candidates are and who they tend to like,” he said.
Dawkins doesn’t believe transportation or other issues will drive lower propensity voters out, leading to low turnout again.
“They’re not really talking about the election,” he said.
Harris said Democrats want to hold more town halls this election cycle to engage with voters in “noncompetitive” areas and “show people the importance of why it really does matter who your elected officials are.”
Democrats also may get a turnout boost from voters looking to express displeasure with President Donald Trump’s administration, Heberlig said.
“Most turnout is driven by national and higher-profile politics,” he said.
Heberlig predicted the transportation referendum could also drive up turnout in east Charlotte and Matthews, communities frustrated the plan doesn’t include funding for light rail to their areas.
Where would upsets happen?
Because of the Democrats’ dominance over local government, “the primaries are probably the best opportunity for people to register their displeasure” with recent events in city government, Heberlig said.
But a strong challenger needs to connect with people in order to have a chance at upsetting an incumbent, he said.
“You need candidates with sufficient stature that they’re able to communicate enough of a message and knock on enough doors that they can channel people’s dissatisfaction into their campaigns,” he said.
Challengers also need evidence to back up claims about incumbents in order to convince voters to jump to them, Heberlig added.
After taking a “hands-off approach” in the September primaries, Harris said Mecklenburg Democrats will focus on City Council District 6. Longtime Republican representative Tariq Bokhari, who won his last two races by fewer than 500 votes, vacated the south Charlotte seat this year for a job in the Trump administration.
In addition to defending key areas such as District 6, Kirby said the Mecklenburg GOP also wants to target the county’s growing population of unaffiliated voters and more diverse voters. They also want to grow their base in traditionally blue areas, including the indicted Brown’s District 3.
“We want to make sure that we use our efforts to get out the vote in the areas that aren’t traditionally considered Republican,” he said.
The county party has a new headquarters and is increasing candidate recruitment and providing more resources to candidates.
Republicans have “a key opportunity to get local voters to at least make a short term exception to their traditional voting trends,” Heberlig said, with a focus on “less ideologically charged” issues such city taxes, public safety and government accountability.
McCorkle said how interesting election season gets will largely depend on the quality of candidates who run, and whether they can get voters engaged.
“The election is either going to be fairly boring, or there can be some real excitement,” he said.
This story was originally published July 7, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
