Authorities issued tornado warning for Eastern NC 6 minutes after storm hit the ground
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Tornado hits Rocky Mount, Battleboro, NC
An EF3 tornado touched down in Rocky Mount and Battleboro, North Carolina, July 19, 2023, heavily damaging a Pfizer product facility and injuring more than a dozen people. Here is coverage from the tornado in Nash and Edgecombe counties.
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The National Weather Service said Thursday that the warnings it issued six minutes after a major tornado touched down Wednesday in Nash and Edgecombe counties still saved lives.
“There’s still a lot of people whose lives were saved because of the warning we did have out for the most intense part of the tornado,” Nick Pietro, the warning coordination meteorologist at the NWS Raleigh office, told The News & Observer Thursday.
The National Weather Service faced scrutiny during and after the tornado from other meteorologists who asked on social media why the Raleigh office hadn’t issued a formal tornado warning before the EF3 tornado touched down.
Tornado warnings trigger the emergency alert system, sending alarms to nearby cell phones and warnings scrolling across television stations. People often react to these by taking increased caution or finding a safe location.
Matthew Cappucci, a Washington, D.C.-based meteorologist who works for newspapers and TV stations, was among those arguing that a more urgent warning should have been issued to elevate the severe thunderstorm warning that already was in effect. The storm was beginning to show signs of developing into a tornado at 12:20 p.m. Wednesday, Cappucci told The News & Observer. That’s more than 11 minutes before forecasters issued their official warnings.
“This was an extremely disappointing performance,” Cappucci said.
Wednesday’s storm was the first EF3 tornado North Carolina has seen in July. It brought winds up to 150 miles per hour along parts of its 16.5-mile path.
Officials reported that 16 people were hurt in the storm, and two remained hospitalized Thursday. In total, 38 homes were damaged by the tornado.
Timeline of North Carolina tornado
Here’s how the situation unfolded Wednesday:
- 11:40 a.m.: The NWS’ Storm Prediction Center issues a Mesoscale Discussion saying there’s an increasing chance of severe weather in northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. The forecast says there’s an increasing chance of organized convection and that a watch may be necessary early Wednesday afternoon. Cappucci said this forecast was “a bullseye” on the area that would later be hit by the tornado.
- 11:48 a.m.: The NWS’ Raleigh Office issues a special weather statement for Edgecombe and Nash counties, among other areas. It warns of pea-sized hail, heavy rains and wind gusts above 40 miles per hour. It’s one of several such statements issued Wednesday morning as the storm crossed the state.
- 12:25 p.m.: The NWS’ Raleigh Office issues a severe thunderstorm warning for parts of Nash, Edgecombe and Halifax counties. A tornado is listed among the potential threats.
- 12:25 p.m.: The tornado touches down, according to the National Weather Service’s survey after the storm. The initial damage included snapped trees, Pietro said.
- 12:25 p.m.: Nick Russo, a weather forecaster for a Richmond television station, sends a tweet that says, “There probably should be a tornado warning with this storm near Rocky Mount NC, about to cross I-95.”
- 12:29 p.m.: Purple spots on radar indicate debris is being lofted into the air, Cappucci said.
- 12:31 p.m.: The NWS’ Raleigh office issues a tornado warning for the same area as the severe thunderstorm warning. It says radar has indicated a tornado and urges people to take cover immediately.
- 12:36 p.m.: A law enforcement official sees the tornado near Dortches, about seven miles northeast of Rocky Mount.
- 12:38 p.m.: The tornado has increased in strength and reaches the area around Pfizer’s plant, according to a NWS review of the event. It causes extensive damage to the facility and damages several homes in the area.
- 12:58 p.m.: The tornado lifts off the ground, northeast of Battleboro, according to the NWS damage survey.
How tornado warnings work
NWS forecasters had been tracking the storm all morning, Pietro said. They watched as it rotated harmlessly near Holly Springs, where the atmosphere wasn’t anywhere near unstable enough to produce a tornado.
And when the storm reached the more unstable atmosphere near Rocky Mount, Pietro said, forecasters followed their process of issuing a special weather statement followed by a severe thunderstorm warning and then a tornado warning.
“By the time all of those steps are taken, sometimes these things pick up speed, they drop down a little faster. It’s a live, fast-moving situation,” Pietro said.
Severe thunderstorm warnings may mention tornadoes, but they don’t result in the same alerts or raise the same level of alarm.
“I don’t think there was any reason that people should have expected that a severe thunderstorm would give an EF3 tornado,” Carpucci said.
The NWS’ goal for tornado warnings is an average of 13 minutes before the storm touches down. USA Today reported in 2021 that the average lead time had dwindled to nine minutes.
But Pietro said that it’s a challenge to actually provide 13 minutes of lead time with a tornado warning.
It’s easier with large storms that are on the ground and moving from one area into the next, but Pietro said, “It’s tough to get 13 minutes for the very first touchdown.”
On Wednesday, the tornado had been on the ground for at least six minutes before an alert was issued.
Pietro said the warning still came before the tornado intensified. The storm’s winds had picked up by the time it reached the Pfizer plant and a nearby childcare facility.
Those facilities, Pietro said, show the importance of having and practicing a safety plan for severe weather. The childcare facility conducted a tornado drill Tuesday.
“When they got the warning, and they got it seven minutes before it hit, they took the kids and sheltered them and everybody was safe,” Pietro said.
He also noted that Pfizer was able to evacuate its facility, which was heavily damaged in the storm.
Cappucci, for his part, sees the situation differently. He points to the minutes the tornado was on the ground before the warning was issued.
“They were unbelievably lucky,” Cappucci said.
This story was produced with financial support from the Hartfield Foundation and 1Earth Fund, in partnership with Journalism Funding Partners, as part of an independent journalism fellowship program. The N&O maintains full editorial control of the work.
This story was originally published July 20, 2023 at 8:39 PM with the headline "Authorities issued tornado warning for Eastern NC 6 minutes after storm hit the ground."
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