North Carolina’s gamble on JetZero is worth it, even if it’s a another bust | Opinion
North Carolina’s big job announcements can feel a lot like scratch-off lottery tickets: flashy promises, exciting for a moment, but ultimately worth about as much as the paper they’re printed on.
Time and again, we hand out public dollars on the promise of jobs and investment and hope for the best. Sometimes it pays off. Often, it doesn’t.
So when high-flying aviation startup JetZero promises 14,500 jobs and a $4.7 billion factory in Greensboro, it’s easy to be skeptical.
After all, the barely-four-year-old company is still a long way from building its first plane. Yet North Carolina is offering nearly $2 billion in public support and touting it as the largest job announcement in state history.
But this time, that reflex might be wrong — not because JetZero is guaranteed to deliver, but because the state is finally gambling on something bigger than jobs alone.
This isn’t a straight cash-for-jobs trade. It’s a calculated bet on innovation, and perhaps on North Carolina’s identity.
A bigger gamble
North Carolina’s economic incentive programs have earned a reputation for overpromising and under-delivering. More than half of the time, the deals fall short. The promises from JetZero are particularly extraordinary, especially given that the company hasn’t flown a full-scale demonstrator aircraft yet and its timeline stretches well into the 2030s.
There is reason, though, to take this one seriously. The U.S. Air Force has already invested $235 million. United Airlines has agreed to buy up to 200 aircraft. Delta is backing it, too. All are drawn to JetZero’s novel design that promises major gains in fuel efficiency and range.
Yes, the bulk of the incentives are performance-based, tied to hiring and investment milestones. But the state is also committing nearly $450 million upfront for public infrastructure to prepare Piedmont Triad International Airport for JetZero and other future tenants.
That sounds like a recipe for disappointment — and maybe it will be. Let’s be honest: No one really expects all 14,500 jobs to materialize. That number makes for a great headline, not a credible projection.
But the real impact of this deal isn’t just in the jobs. It’s in the message it sends — and in the runway it builds.
In the short term, the announcement gives North Carolina the political will to make long-overdue investments in PTI, which has already gained traction as an aviation hub thanks to companies like HondaJet. The state’s investment in roads, utilities, and site prep strengthens the region whether JetZero succeeds or not.
In the long term, it could cement North Carolina as the heart of next-generation aerospace.
‘We’re making history here, again’
That’s been the dream for former Lt. Gov. Dan Forest for well over a decade. Our state’s license plates still read “First in Flight,” and while in office, he wanted to make the state “Next in Flight.” (Disclosure: I served as communications director for his 2020 campaign for governor.)
As lieutenant governor, Forest led the state’s delegations to international air shows and championed investment in cutting-edge aviation sectors like electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. So I called him to get his read on the JetZero deal.
Forest told me he sees the announcement as a turning point — not just for the Triad, but for the entire state.
“This is the next frontier for our state,” he told me. “It could be every bit as big — or bigger — than RTP.”
But more than anything, he said, JetZero puts North Carolina on the radar.
“All the companies that are trying to innovate in the aviation and aerospace world — all their eyes have to be on North Carolina now,” Forest said. “We’re making history here, again.”
I’m not a gambling man. I’ve never been to Vegas, and I don’t have a FanDuel account. But when I drive by a billboard showing that the Powerball pot is over $1 billion, I tend to stop and buy a ticket. That’s what this JetZero deal feels like.
North Carolina should still be judicious about sticking its neck out on big job announcements. But every now and then, cynicism has to give way to strategy. Sometimes, you take the gamble, and this is the right kind of gamble to take.
The Wright Brothers didn’t ask for tax breaks before they took off from Kitty Hawk. But maybe that’s just how the world works now, and North Carolina is learning how to make that work in our favor.
If JetZero flies, we’ll be part of a generational leap in aviation. If it doesn’t, we’ll still be better off than we were before.