NC poll: Cooper widens US Senate lead, and GOP has more reasons to worry | Opinion
Former Gov. Roy Cooper’s lead in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate election may be widening, a new poll suggests.
In the latest poll, conducted by Change Research, Cooper leads Michael Whatley, the likely Republican nominee, by 50% to 40%. A poll released last month showed Cooper leading by five percentage points.
The poll shows Cooper with a dominant lead among independent voters as well as a sizable edge with what the poll labels “movable” voters. According to the poll, these “movable” voters comprise 27% of the North Carolina electorate. They are disapproving of President Donald Trump right now but narrowly voted for him in 2024. They tend to be younger, more racially diverse and they tilt Republican. Cooper has a decisive lead with these voters, but they are more split in other races, including for the N.C. Supreme Court and the state legislature.
But Republicans have more reasons to worry, the poll shows. Trump is deeply unpopular and viewed unfavorably by a majority of North Carolina voters. More than 50% of voters said Trump is focused primarily on himself, is “a destroyer of government with no plan to fix it,” breaks promises and rarely tells the truth. They blame the Trump administration for the rising cost of living and rising health care costs, and oppose many recent domestic and foreign policy actions, including taking control of Venezuela and Greenland.
Republicans in the state legislature are also viewed unfavorably. Majorities of voters view them as “mostly interested in their own political careers” and say they “don’t really understand problems facing working people.” When given a choice between Gov. Josh Stein and Republican legislative leaders, 43% of voters say they trust Stein more to govern fairly and with people’s best interests in mind. Still, the generic legislative ballot is close, with Democrats currently holding a 3-point lead over Republicans.
On immigration, there are more warning signs. A startling 60% of voters say they don’t trust Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and 54% believe recent killings by ICE agents in Minneapolis were unjustified. Only 43% of voters think recent ICE operations in Raleigh and Charlotte were effective. It’s further evidence that, thanks to Trump, Republicans are losing the upper hand on one of their strongest issues.
What’s significant about the poll is that the sample is one that favors Republicans. About 47% of participants say they voted for Trump in 2024, while 44% voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris. Ideologically, the discrepancy seems even larger: 49% of participants describe themselves as conservative or MAGA, and 38% describe themselves as liberal or progressive.
Of course, this is just one poll, and the general election is still more than eight months away. But it reflects a consistent polling trend — both statewide and nationally — that doesn’t bode well for Republicans in a battleground state where they have long maintained a slight edge. According to this poll, Democrats are more motivated to vote in November than Republicans, and 53% of those who say they are “extremely motivated” to vote also say they “strongly disapprove” of Trump. While that enthusiasm isn’t unexpected, it illustrates just how difficult this midterm environment is for Republicans.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten is covering the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
This story was originally published February 23, 2026 at 1:16 PM.
