Latest Senate poll is a reminder that NC is still a battleground state | Opinion
Democrats have high hopes for North Carolina in the November midterms, but a new poll offers a reality check. Despite rumblings of a blue wave, we are still a battleground state.
The poll, released Monday by Public Policy Polling, has Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley by just three percentage points in the race for U.S. Senate. It’s Whatley’s best poll since the beginning of the campaign.
President Donald Trump also fared better than usual, with 47% of respondents viewing him favorably. Statewide judicial races were also included in the poll: Democrat Anita Earls has a slight lead over Republican Sarah Stevens for N.C. Supreme Court, while the three races for N.C. Court of Appeals are all close, and Democrats have the advantage in two of them, the poll found.
This poll is likely more realistic than others that have showed Cooper with a much larger lead. Statewide elections in North Carolina are typically close, regardless of which party comes out on top. (The exception, of course, is when Republicans run deeply flawed candidates, like former Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who lost to Gov. Josh Stein by an unusually large margin in 2024.)
Case in point: In 2022, Ted Budd won by about three percentage points. In 2020, less than two percentage points separated Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham. Trump’s largest margin of victory in North Carolina is also about three percentage points. A 10-point Cooper victory was probably never going to happen.
This poll likely brings some relief to Republicans, who were in need of some good news. Election results tend to end up being closer than polls predict, so Cooper’s real advantage could be even narrower than the numbers make it seem. Experts have this race classified as a toss-up for a reason.
But the underlying political environment does still favor Democrats. About 51% of the poll’s respondents said they voted for Trump in 2024, while 47% voted for Kamala Harris. If primary election turnout is any indication, the electorate in November could very well be bluer than that. The challenge for Democrats and Republicans will be to mobilize as many of their own voters as possible, while also winning over independents. The outcome will likely depend on which party has better turnout.
Trump won North Carolina by just over three percentage points in 2024. In 2020, his margin of victory was half of that. Cooper only has to overperform Harris and Biden by a few points to win in November. That’s consistent with national expectations, especially given that during the last blue wave, which occurred in 2018, the nation’s electorate swung 6.5 percentage points to the left. According to Decision Desk HQ, North Carolina swung about five points to the left between 2016 and 2018, so it’s definitely possible.
It’s all a pretty roundabout way of saying that this is still anybody’s race. It’s unclear whether this poll is an outlier, or if it’s reflective of a recent momentum shift that favors Republicans. But both parties should know by now that there’s no such thing as a “safe” election in North Carolina.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten is covering the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
