New NC poll shows Roy Cooper and other Democrats gaining big ground in midterms | Opinion
Roy Cooper continues to hold a strong, double-digit lead over Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, a new poll shows.
A new Catawba College–YouGov poll conducted earlier this month shows Cooper with 48% to Whatley’s 34%, which is well outside the poll’s margin of error. The poll release notes that Cooper’s advantage is driven by independent voters, who favor Cooper by a two-to-one margin. Cooper has gained ground with independents since March, while support for Whatley among independent voters has remained the same.
It’s likely also driven by dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, whose approval rating is still underwater in North Carolina. According to the poll, 43% of voters approve of Trump while 54% disapprove, giving him a net approval rating of -11. Once again, that’s driven by independents, 67% of whom disapprove of Trump.
Interestingly, enthusiasm for Trump seems like it may be waning even among Republicans. While the vast majority of North Carolina Republicans approve of the president, they appear to be less likely to center their Republican identity around Trump. The poll asks GOP voters whether they consider themselves more a supporter of Trump or more a supporter of the Republican Party overall. In this month’s poll, 57% of GOP voters sided with the Republican Party, while 43% sided with Trump. Compare that to January, when 55% of GOP voters aligned themselves with the president, and 45% aligned themselves with the party.
Trump also seems to be losing support among rural voters, who typically make up a big part of the Republican base. In North Carolina’s rural counties, 56% of voters disapprove of Trump, according to the poll. In a June 2025 poll that number was just 44%. A similar dynamic exists in the Senate race, where Cooper has a 10-point advantage with rural voters over Whatley.
As expected, Trump disapproval continues to plague Republicans further down the ballot. Democrats have increased their lead on the U.S. House generic ballot, with 46% of voters favoring Democrats and 37% favoring Republicans. The generic ballots for the North Carolina General Assembly also favor Democrats, who have a 6-point advantage for the N.C. House and an 8-point advantage for the N.C. Senate. In the N.C. Supreme Court race, Democrat Anita Earls leads Republican Sarah Stevens, 40% to 35%.
This poll is yet another piece of a larger pattern that suggests Democrats have a clear edge in November’s midterms. So far, there’s little evidence to suggest that Republicans are gaining any ground in North Carolina, and in some cases, they may be losing it. With just over four months to go until Election Day, Republicans are running out of time to turn things around.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten covers politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
