If you open it, will they come? Some warning signs for NC and its restaurants

Restaurants across North Carolina opened their dining rooms for the first time in more than two months Friday. Diners ventured out and foodies were excited, but as other states have shown after reopening, restaurant owners face a difficult path after the first wave of the hungry and faithful.

In Georgia, almost one month after being allowed to reopen, restaurants are still seeing reservations and walk-ins down an average of 85 percent, according to year-over-year sampling of data from OpenTable, a restaurant reservation service. In Alabama, which allowed restaurants to reopen April 30, reservations are down 70 percent. Other states, including those allowing restaurants to open at limited capacity, are seeing reservations down far beyond those capacity considerations.

It’s just one data point, but what does it tell us? First, that economic damage and recovery from COVID-19 are not nearly as simple as flicking a stay-at-home switch. Coronavirus restrictions are far from the only obstacles to local businesses and economies beginning to recover. Just as critical is a psychological barrier – the discomfort we have going out with friends or browsing in a retail store with an unseen virus lurking.

That dynamic was real even before governors across the country issued stay at home orders. According to the OpenTable data, reservations began to fall dramatically in North Carolina before Gov. Roy Cooper issued his March 17 stay-at-home order. By that day, reservations had dropped 93 percent from one year before. Other states showed a similar reluctance about restaurants even before dining rooms were closed.

That’s why, despite videos showing throngs of customers at mall and restaurant reopenings, national retailers and industry researchers think many customers aren’t yet ready to shop at non-essential stores. It doesn’t matter if a governor tells you to stay at home or a president urges a state to loosen restrictions. People are making choices based on what they believe about the virus - that it is aggressively contagious and has killed almost 100,000 Americans despite almost two months of restrictions throughout the country.

That knowledge is evolving. We know more precisely how older Americans are more vulnerable to COVID-19’s worst outcomes, and we’re learning more each week about how the virus is more and less likely to be transmitted. But COVID-19 is still killing people young and old, and it still brings new and surprising concerns, including a potential link to an inflammatory syndrome in children.

Americans’ apprehension is a natural reaction to that continued threat, and it’s an acknowledgment of what we still don’t know. It’s also a reminder that as we debate restrictions and reopenings, the loudest voices are not necessarily the most representative. We give outsized attention to the most visible and outrageous, but North Carolinians and Americans are largely doing what they’re supposed to. They’re practicing social distancing. They’re being careful. They’re flattening the curve.

But as North Carolina enters Phase 2, that caution means businesses face a slow road back, at least until a vaccine or more precise knowledge about COVID-19 brings the comfort that consumers need to shop and dine freely. Employers and the jobless still need rescuing, and urgently so. N.C. lawmakers and Congress shouldn’t mistake reopening for recovery, and the rest of us shouldn’t assume that our favorite restaurants and shops need our business any less. A lot more doors may be opening this weekend, but a lot more people aren’t necessarily walking in. Not yet, and perhaps not for some time.

This story was originally published May 22, 2020 at 10:40 AM.